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Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#561

Post by notRobot »

cmsj wrote: post #126
notRobot wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook (Meta) the company is a lot more than Facebook the social media network. Meta owns WhatsApp and Instagram, two of the biggest social networks, that are ubiquitous with younger generations. It does not matter that Facebook is associated with old people, because Facebook also owns the places where all the young people are at.

FWIW, I don't think Instagram is super popular with the Tiktok generation, and WhatsApp's monetization strategy is still unproven.

> I don't think Instagram is super popular with the Tiktok generation

You're wrong. I work with teens. They all use both. For different reasons.

TikTok is much more creator/viewer like YouTube, where few make content, and many watch.

Instagram is where there are close "circles" (heh, G+?) of friends, and everyone is just following and making content for each-other.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#562

Post by returnzero »

schnitzelstoat wrote: post #247
raydev wrote: post #233

I'm shocked that FB has so many votes here. FB may be getting slaughtered by the media, hated by both the left and the right, but the truth is no one is actually leaving FB. It's still the #1 place to find restaurants, buy/sell used items, neighborhood groups, etc etc etc. And if FB Proper were to ever fall behind, IG still has a lot of stamina left. I don't think it will happen any time soon, but I would like to see…

The question was which is the most likely to decline, not to disappear. I don't think Facebook (or Meta) will disappear, but I do think it is the mostly likely to decline. The only one I think may disappear is Netflix - this is because Facebook benefits from the network effect which helps slow any sudden decline as all your family are still on it etc. whereas Netflix just needs a bad run of poor quality content and i…

With companies the size of the FAANGs they appear to struggle with change and being dynamic. A lot of the time they purchase existing companies/tech in the direction they want to steer towards.

I would argue that while Facebook/Meta has been more of a gradual evolution Netflix has shown that it can transition to a whole new way of working within its domain. They revolutionised DVD rentals by combining a web UI with efficient warehousing and logistics. When they saw that infrastructure was getting close to making streaming viable they pivoted to digital delivery and not only did it allow them to keep their existing customer base who would have eventually moved away from DVD rentals on their own, but it also brought in other international markets where DVD rentals never would have worked.

I think I agree that Facebook/Meta will decline without disappearing in much the same way that IBM has. They will acquire new businesses and sell off old ones without really being seen as particularly innovative. Netflix on the other hand I think will stick around but will likely change into more of a content producer rather than a distributor like it has been. Beyond that, who knows?

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#563

Post by Mayzie »

rurp wrote: post #498
ghaff wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see very little evidence that Netflix' data science has been a unique differentiator. For what they've developed, they have some hits and quite a few duds. Their licensed catalog is not exceptional--and even less exceptional when it comes to film. They'll likely mostly turn into another studio with a streaming platform.

To add to this, given the resources spent on it their UX is pretty bad and I don't think their data scientists are giving them much if any edge over the competition at this point. Features such as only using company generated ratings, aggressively cancelling shows, and the lack of ability to browse/sort/filter the catalog, in favor of Netflix pushing the recommendations they choose on users, is probably great for qua…

> aggressively cancelling shows

Ha, that is so true. Netflix is infamous for this. It’s to the extent that I cannot start watching a Netflix production unless I know it’s finished or if it’s a big hit from day one (so I know it won’t be cancelled, like The Witcher). It’s odd, because Netflix’s reputation for prematurely cancelling content without resolving their endings has extended to beyond just youth-dominated social media. For example, my parents of all people who cannot use a computer nor the internet, don’t like investing in new Netflix content because they’ve been burned too many times from incomplete series. That’s just like me. It’s sad because Netflix dared to create decent and interesting content, but now it would be hard to escape their infamy.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#564

Post by klipt »

ghaff wrote: post #362
Wojtkie wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FAANG == Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google. It's an acronym specifically for those companies, which is why Microsoft was excluded.

Yes. But the point is that a term coined by a TV stock personality years ago has pretty much zero relevance for looking at what the arc is going to be for what are seen as leading tech companies (through a Silicon Valley lens).

If you think that's outdated, wait til you hear there are still people investing in "Dow Jones" index funds or aiming for "Ivy League" schools!

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#565

Post by LaserPineapple »

yissp wrote: post #530
chadcmulligan wrote: post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon Works for me.

We need two more, NVIDIA and AMD? Then it's MANAMANA (do do do do do).

Dell and Oracle, etc

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#566

Post by discardable_dan »

ghaff wrote: post #509
rurp wrote: post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add to this, given the resources spent on it their UX is pretty bad and I don't think their data scientists are giving them much if any edge over the competition at this point. Features such as only using company generated ratings, aggressively cancelling shows, and the lack of ability to browse/sort/filter the catalog, in favor of Netflix pushing the recommendations they choose on users, is probably great for qua…

They'll be a studio with a streaming platform. One that is perhaps better than average. Which implies the engineers will be the help on-par with the other studios with streaming platforms. If content is the differentiator why overspend on the platform?

The issue is their content is actually a very poor point in differentiation. I watch a larger amount of TV than I'd care to admit, and honestly Netflix is awful for content.

- Disney has Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, and a long tail of childhood classic films. - HBO has Warner Brothers, DC, Cartoon Network (including a nostalgia back catalog), the best TV shows made in the 00s, and a long tail of adult films. - Netflix's largest successes in the last two years are Tiger King, Squid Game, The Witcher, and a long tail of shows cancelled after Season 1 and short-run miniseries.

At this point, Netflix is a last-resort source of entertainment for me, even after (ad-riddled) YouTube. I mostly only use it to watch their weird reality shows (Blown Away, Sugar Rush) and check out shows friends recommend. I suspect even Paramount+ has a larger selection of TV shows I'd like to watch compared to Netflix.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#567

Post by mensetmanusman »

jonwinstanley wrote: post #373
devmunchies wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly However, if the app store were to open up, it could create a more vibrant ecosystem underneath and even create even more network effects within ios. Less direct money for apple but more vibrant developer economy.

"Monopoly" is an interesting term in this situation. Obviously they are the sole provider of the iOS platform access, but iOS itself is not the largest smartphone platform.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-i-phone-ownership-among...

iPhone usage is approaching 90% for the next generation in the us, so it will be ripe for regulation.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#568

Post by mensetmanusman »

epolanski wrote: post #523
poulsbohemian wrote: post #508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. Yes each of these has enough of a war chest that they could drift along for a decade + several have ownership structures where there wouldn't be market pressure to remove the C-level / board if that happened. That said... each of these has weaknesses. I think abo…

It is very hard for me to imagine a world in which Google isnt the default search provider for almost the totality of people outside China or Russia. I don't think I even see my tech-aware colleagues using anything else except the rare unicorns with duckduckgo. I just can't see putting netflix and google search in the same basket.

Apple could replace the default on the iPhone and few would care.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#569

Post by BbzzbB »

dilippkumar wrote: post #393
lotsofpulp wrote: post #331

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The purpose of this poll eludes me due to including Netflix and excluding Microsoft.

tester756[0] Proposed MAGMA as the successor for FAANG. I'm still waiting for it to happen. MAGMA: Microsoft, Apple, Google, Meta, Amazon. [0]. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29278804

Why do people insist on reinventing it when FAAMG works just fine? Also makes no sense to keep Google (Alphabet) but swap out Facebook (Meta).

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#570

Post by post_from_work »

ghaff wrote: post #497
FractalHQ wrote: post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of my favorite works in the past few years have been Netflix originals. You might want to consider giving them another chance! They’ve got some of the film industries most talented minds working on them.

Examples? I haven't mostly seen them although I do subscribe. I could name at least two shows on Apple TV+ (which is rarely discussed) that I consider better than anything on Netflix of late. (For All Mankind and The Morning Show)

Not a series, but Extraction: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraction_(2020_film)
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