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Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#521

Post by warner25 »

slyall wrote: post #293
chronotis wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Midwestern GenX suburban parent here. Nothing important happens in our subdivision (hundreds of homes) without mention of it in the neighborhood's private Facebook group. Our public school district uses a Facebook page as a primary announcement platform. Kids' sports and social groups are all organized as Facebook groups and pages. You cannot escape Facebook if you're a suburban parent in the US.

True but thats 10 minutes per day. Facebook needs everybody to spend hours on them each day.

Very good point. Facebook has gone from something that I used for enjoyment (2004 through maybe 2016) to something that I resentfully use only to conduct business in my local community. It's still "social" but it's the difference between hanging out with friends vs. running errands at the store, post office, city hall, etc. It has clearly grown in importance by becoming the de facto official online presence of so many entities, so I can't escape it, but I absolutely want to minimize my time spent on that stuff.

I reflexively answered the poll with Facebook because I hate it, but then I realized that I'm probably closer to killing my Netflix account than my Facebook account, and I doubted my answer. Now you've convinced me again that Facebook is most in decline.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#522

Post by bdcravens »

throwawayboise wrote: post #224
imoverclocked wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I recently stayed somewhere with cable and relatives were watching content for the holidays. I was reminded of just how obnoxious having 30+ minutes of ads for 1.5 hours of content is. I’d rather just not have any content.

Yeah I can't watch anything with unskipable ads anymore. It's just not worth it. The one exception is live sports, but that's not soo bad because there are timeouts anyway. I just hit mute when the ads are running.

I watch NFL RedZone, which jumps game to game to follow the action, with no commercials. Obviously that only works when you have that many games going at once. (Also ironically one of the reasons why I switched back to cable, as it really wasn't on the streaming packages that made sense for us)

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#523

Post by epolanski »

poulsbohemian wrote: post #508
jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

>All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. Yes each of these has enough of a war chest that they could drift along for a decade + several have ownership structures where there wouldn't be market pressure to remove the C-level / board if that happened. That said... each of these has weaknesses. I think abo…

It is very hard for me to imagine a world in which Google isnt the default search provider for almost the totality of people outside China or Russia. I don't think I even see my tech-aware colleagues using anything else except the rare unicorns with duckduckgo.

I just can't see putting netflix and google search in the same basket.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#524

Post by captainmuon »

joshlemer wrote: post #389
captainmuon wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Facebook is for old people now. I organized an event for new students at the university and we had a discussion in the team whether we should advertize on FB or whether it would even be a hindrance because FB is not cool. We then agreed to post it there after all because people expect "serious" information such as dates of university events on Facebook. I don't post regularly on Facebook, because my old FB friends ar…

I don't think it's inappropriate to add people you meet on Facebook in your late 30's. Don't miss out on a chance to become friends with someone just because you think FB adding is a faux pas! Also, where else would you post an event details page aside from Facebook? Meetup? That's even more dead..

It's more like, when you are in university it's fine to add other students you barely know. But now with a job, I don't want to add my colleagues or business associates to social media. Also real friends != FB friends, I'm not going to miss out on making personal connections because of this.

I dunno, I guess for events FB is still the place to go.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#525

Post by epolanski »

irrational wrote: post #398
jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

Netflix only has about 200 million subscribers. That is astonishingly small (IMHO). Though, I'm not a subscriber, so it probably shouldn't surprise me, but it still does.

Small? I can't think many subscription services with such numbers.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#526

Post by chillacy »

helloworld11 wrote: post #515

The emotional favoritism in these poll results is laughable so far. Everyone and their cousin on HN loves to shit on Facebook, so lo and behold, it gets the worst ranking, followed by Google. Apple, despite a number of very consumer-hostile choices, is barely considered a potential failure. I would assume that those voting would choose based on a rational analysis derived from their personal knowledge of tech trends,…

The poll should be phrased as: Which FAANG would you short-sell relative to long positions on the others to maximize return in 5 years? Then at least we can measure performance, otherwise there isn't really a right or wrong answer we can evaluate.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#527

Post by _8j50 »

mywittyname wrote: post #430
_8j50 wrote: post #423

Why the hell does netflix has so many upvotes? i would pay triple their max subscription fee for their content! For me it has to be Google, yeah FB too for obvious reasons but Google got too big and their products have been showing a detrimental pattern. They will be around but people are using tiktok and friends in lieu of youtube and their main revenue source is ADs via search and I see many good competitors in tha…

>Why the hell does netflix has so many upvotes? I contributed to this. My first thought was that netflix doesn't really have special sauce anymore. They exist in a highly competitive market and lack the back catalog of established media companies. As a result, they end up paying way too much money for both new shows, and established ones. On the other side of the coin, they can't compete with the volume of free conte…

Youtube is uset generated content, can't compete with netflix. I used prime for a while and switched to netflix. I am joyfully overwhelmed by the volume and quality of content on netflix. I don't have to rent or buy anything, it is all just there to watch! If anything I resent Disney for not going all in on netlflix instead of doing Disney+. After a few weeks on prime I ran out of interesting content. With Netflix I am binging multi season shows and I still find new movies and seasons as they get released right after the previous one. And they actually ask for your up/down vote instead of relying in ML like with prime (which is terrible btw)

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#528

Post by ch4s3 »

jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

> * Amazon is about to enter a decade of unionization all over the world.

World wide is probably too strong a claim, but I think here's something to this. However, I think this would work in Amazon's favor. It would make warehousing quite a bit more expensive and would be a significant barrier to competitors. AWS provides them with deep pockets, and the have a huge advantage in logistics so I think they could eat the cost and keep moving. It would also suck a lot of air out of the anti-amazon movement, such that it is. One day delivery with high labor standards might be the pitch that catapults them to real market dominance.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#529

Post by _8j50 »

wtf_is_up wrote: post #480
_8j50 wrote: post #423

Why the hell does netflix has so many upvotes? i would pay triple their max subscription fee for their content! For me it has to be Google, yeah FB too for obvious reasons but Google got too big and their products have been showing a detrimental pattern. They will be around but people are using tiktok and friends in lieu of youtube and their main revenue source is ADs via search and I see many good competitors in tha…

I cancelled my Netflix sub as they continued raising the price while lowering the quality of content. There is no reason to carry a Netflix sub year round. I pay for one month and catch up on anything they made worth watching (not that much), and then check in next year.

I don't know about that, I pay for mediocre content on Sling for a lot more than NF and NF had been doing a lot of content outside of the US (spain, turkey, korea, etc...) if anything I think a downturn will force people to just netflix+internet.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#530

Post by yissp »

chadcmulligan wrote: post #433
selimthegrim wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Muppet in me is still holding out for MANAMA.

Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon Works for me.

We need two more, NVIDIA and AMD? Then it's MANAMANA (do do do do do).
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