Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead? • Hacker News Board

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#341

Post by Wojtkie » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:44 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #331

ghaff wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see very little evidence that Netflix' data science has been a unique differentiator. For what they've developed, they have some hits and quite a few duds. Their licensed catalog is not exceptional--and even less exceptional when it comes to film. They'll likely mostly turn into another studio with a streaming platform.

The purpose of this poll eludes me due to including Netflix and excluding Microsoft.

FAANG == Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google.

It's an acronym specifically for those companies, which is why Microsoft was excluded.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#342

Post by akimball » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:44 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #331

ghaff wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see very little evidence that Netflix' data science has been a unique differentiator. For what they've developed, they have some hits and quite a few duds. Their licensed catalog is not exceptional--and even less exceptional when it comes to film. They'll likely mostly turn into another studio with a streaming platform.

The purpose of this poll eludes me due to including Netflix and excluding Microsoft.

Not a FAANG

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#343

Post by wombat-man » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:45 PM UTC

lonesword wrote: post #45

willcipriano wrote: post #28

Amazon is the only one on that list that has actively reached out to me, it's also the only one I'd never interview at given what I've heard about working conditions there. Some places seem to keep everything on fire all the time and have big expectations on engineers personal time to keep the fires from consuming the business, Amazon is like that from what I've heard.

Really depends on your team, and your manager. I'm actually having a pretty good time (in Europe) - there's absolutely no expectation to work overtime/weekends.

I've heard that too, but the way they backload RSUs feels kind of risky. You kinda have to tough it out 3+ years or take the loss if you need to move on earlier.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#344

Post by Jorengarenar » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:45 PM UTC

lotsofpulp wrote: post #331

ghaff wrote: post #309

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see very little evidence that Netflix' data science has been a unique differentiator. For what they've developed, they have some hits and quite a few duds. Their licensed catalog is not exceptional--and even less exceptional when it comes to film. They'll likely mostly turn into another studio with a streaming platform.

The purpose of this poll eludes me due to including Netflix and excluding Microsoft.

Exactly, FAANG is a thing of the past, now the MAMAA is the Big Five

(And TBH, it had been a surprise to be FANG, not FAMG to begin with)

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#345

Post by lotsofpulp » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:45 PM UTC

ayyyolo wrote: post #26

artemonster wrote: post #15

I have loads of friends who started to cancel their netflix subs and went back to piracy because they grew tired of searching for a way to watch something legally. Now its disney, hbo, prime, whatever. Screw all of this.

100% It's worse than the old days of only having cable and having to pay a small fortune. I'm not going to pay the same (or more) and then have to jump around between 12 different apps.

I much prefer searching for something in the TV app and having my options to buy/rent/subscribe than have to deal with the cable monopoly.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#346

Post by pphysch » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:45 PM UTC

zmmmmm wrote: post #243

pphysch wrote: post #206

Apple is my vote. It's very easy to be a tech professional who uses a lot of tech in my free time and never rely on, interact with, or even think about Apple products beyond users that may be using them. Therefore, it's easy for me to imagine a world where Apple just doesn't exist, and not because some unknown competitor rises up. However, I don't think that is particularly likely.

I think you underestimate their ecosystem lockin for those who are bought in already. That alone will keep them going for decades unless antitrust intervenes. Apple's real vulnerability in my view is that most of their value arises from extraordinarily high margins which in turn are driven by perception / fashion. They run the risk that losing that fashion shine at any point will rapidly cause a catastrophic loss of…

> Apple's real vulnerability in my view is that most of their value arises from extraordinarily high margins which in turn are driven by perception / fashion.

Well put. The iPhone is going on 15 years old. Once-hip iPhone users are becoming parents to children and teenagers that are getting their first devices. The iPhone will go the way of the Blackberry in the next 5-10 years and Apple will need to reinvent itself (again, without Jobs) in this time or see a rapid decline.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#347

Post by dougmwne » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:46 PM UTC

berberous wrote: post #115

ecshafer wrote: post #25

Facebook is currently ahead, but I wonder how much of that is perception. There is a lot of media about how Facebook is evil, but that is mostly from a pretty small circle of media and political people, that Facebook is naturally in opposition to. Facebook also owns instagram and whatsapp as well. But everyone over 30 I know uses Facebook, heavily. Instagram is also used very heavily. Amazon has threats from other E-…

My two cents is that people are dramatically under-weighting the possibility that Zuckerberg is a visionary with his AR/VR plays. I am extremely bullish on FB solely because of that. I think people will be as wrong about his VR plays as they were about the Instagram acquisition.

Agree with you there. You've got a founder led company making visionary plays that have every appearance of being on the right track. The Quest is not just a tech marvel, it was also the best selling game console this Christmas. The overall vision will take a few more hardware iterations, but has huge potential to replace smartphones, laptops, game consoles and offices. At this very moment there's another comment thread talking about how the web is an SEO spam graveyard and Google is ripe to be disrupted. Those thinking the disrupter is going to be Duck Duck Go are kidding themselves.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#348

Post by lotsofpulp » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:46 PM UTC

dougmwne wrote: post #319

jmknoll wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

+2, FAANG was coined by Jim Cramer to be a grouping of fast growing tech stocks almost 10 years ago, not a grouping of the largest and most important tech companies. Apple and Microsoft are both about 10x the market cap of Netflix.

Have we all really been parroting Jim Cramer all these years? That's really quite sad.

The word fang is pretty catchy.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#349

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:46 PM UTC

dougmwne wrote: post #325

Youden wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your experience of Facebook is very different to mine. In my bubble Facebook is basically a graveyard; I see posts from friends every now and then and use it to chat with people I don't have contact with on other platforms and that's it. I tried marketplace but it's empty in my area. Restaurants don't use it, nor do neighbourhoods. I'm not saying you're wrong but we'd need to see numbers to say which of our experienc…

And have you checked out their VR offering? It's technology witchcraft I tell you.

[deleted]

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#350

Post by scrollaway » Mon, Jan 03, 2022, 9:46 PM UTC

faut_reflechir wrote: post #151

Initially voted Google based on a hunch: Google Search is the most likely flagship product of a FAANG to get displaced by a competitor. Unlike, say, Amazon as a hub for products or Facebook as a social network, Google Search is not a natural monopoly -- there's no inherent reason a search engine should maintain dominance if it loses its competitive advantage. The complaints from tech friends ("you can't find anything…

Google is the dominant search engine essentially everywhere except for China and Russia.

Amazon's marketplace dominance is pretty US/UK specific, and even there, there are plenty of alternatives. Amazon marketplace is actually only available natively in a small handful of countries.

I feel like most people in this thread are grossly overevaluating Amazon's ability to stay relevant. If a competitor pops up with consistently better prices/better products/better marketing then they'll steal users from Amazon and over time dominance is lost.

What exactly does Amazon have that prevents me from stopping the use of it?

Google has excellent quality search results and a ton of products with a huge lock-in to their account ecosystem. Apple has fantastic product quality. Meta has a ridiculous network effect in three of the four products I use it for -- I can't even leave two of them (Whatsapp and FB) despite not even liking them! And Netflix consistently produces and publishes some of my favourite shows.

Amazon has nothing I can't get elsewhere, it's just a bit more consolidated. With the exception of AWS, and as I said upthread, who knows if that will remain the same company.