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Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

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Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#321

Post by addicted »

nr2x wrote: post #239
cogman10 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. What made netflix successful initially was their access to IP. That's going away fast as every IP producer is pushing for their own paid streaming service (which sucks, btw). With big heavyweights like Disney that own a huge percentage of content having their own services, netflix is really going to struggle being anything more than niche media providers (anime) and their own inhouse media. If they are lucky,…

That said, until other streaming services entered the scene I didn't appreciate exactly how good Netflix's engineering is. The only service comparable is YouTube, but even then, Netflix has much higher quality. HBO Max has a great content library, but barely works.

Have you used HBO Max recently? Aside from the first month or so it’s been nearly flawless for me across a variety of platforms (Roku/Chromecast/iPhone).

And the first month pains were very clearly because it was rushed out to time it with the release of certain IPs during the pandemic.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#322

Post by scrollaway »

throwawayboise wrote: post #234
lbrandy wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, I joined HN 14 years ago (wow) and there's never been a time in those 14 years that HN wasn't convinced that facebook's demise was just around the corner.

I mean, MySpace died, and rather quickly too. At one time most people probably thought they had critical mass.

MySpace died because it became a minority player in a quickly growing landscape, at a time where alternatives were available.

To simplify, if you have captured over 50 percent of the entire english-speaking Internet population, sure you have a huge network effect behind you. But if that population count is multiplied by 100x and your numbers don't grow alongside that, your network effect is not as strong.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#323

Post by dhosek »

throwawayboise wrote: post #234
lbrandy wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, I joined HN 14 years ago (wow) and there's never been a time in those 14 years that HN wasn't convinced that facebook's demise was just around the corner.

I mean, MySpace died, and rather quickly too. At one time most people probably thought they had critical mass.

My wife was working there at their peak (and left at just the right time—I like to think that their decline was the inevitable result of her departure). They had such high engagement that they had a hard time selling enough ads to fill all the available ad slots.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#324

Post by disambiguation »

dehrmann wrote: post #307
disambiguation wrote: post #297

Order of decline: Netflix, Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple. Netflix because their moat isn't strong enough. Facebook because of monetized-ads model and backlash against social media in general. Google also because of monetized-ads model and declining quality of search results. Amazon and Apple are relatively safe IMO. Amazon is the most at risk from unionization and regulation, potentially breaking up their business…

You called out decline in Google's SERP quality, but not issues with third-party sellers and fake reviews on Amazon?

Yeah fake reviews is a good point, but Amazon isn't primarily a product review company so i don't see it as an apples to apples existential threat like poor quality search is for Google.

Also, Amazon could easily reel in 3rd party sellers and impose quality control. It's an unused lever in their toolbox. They've decided that exchanging brand quality for higher free cash flow is a better trade off for the time being.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#325

Post by dougmwne »

Youden wrote: post #314
raydev wrote: post #233

I'm shocked that FB has so many votes here. FB may be getting slaughtered by the media, hated by both the left and the right, but the truth is no one is actually leaving FB. It's still the #1 place to find restaurants, buy/sell used items, neighborhood groups, etc etc etc. And if FB Proper were to ever fall behind, IG still has a lot of stamina left. I don't think it will happen any time soon, but I would like to see…

Your experience of Facebook is very different to mine. In my bubble Facebook is basically a graveyard; I see posts from friends every now and then and use it to chat with people I don't have contact with on other platforms and that's it. I tried marketplace but it's empty in my area. Restaurants don't use it, nor do neighbourhoods. I'm not saying you're wrong but we'd need to see numbers to say which of our experienc…

And have you checked out their VR offering? It's technology witchcraft I tell you.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#326

Post by PopAlongKid »

raydev wrote: post #233

I'm shocked that FB has so many votes here. FB may be getting slaughtered by the media, hated by both the left and the right, but the truth is no one is actually leaving FB. It's still the #1 place to find restaurants, buy/sell used items, neighborhood groups, etc etc etc. And if FB Proper were to ever fall behind, IG still has a lot of stamina left. I don't think it will happen any time soon, but I would like to see…

> It's still the #1 place to find restaurants,

Yelp

> buy/sell used items,

Craigslist or Patch

> neighborhood groups

Nextdoor

I've been an FB user for ages, and don't use it for any of the things you list. Mostly just staying in touch with distant relatives, school chums and professional colleagues that I know socially, and a few special interest groups. I only log in to FB maybe 2-4 times per week, for less than an hour at a time.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#327

Post by dageshi »

xyzzy_plugh wrote: post #256
nr2x wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That said, until other streaming services entered the scene I didn't appreciate exactly how good Netflix's engineering is. The only service comparable is YouTube, but even then, Netflix has much higher quality. HBO Max has a great content library, but barely works.

> I didn't appreciate exactly how good Netflix's engineering is. This is poignant as even the shittiest streaming service can dominate with the right IP. Content is king, engineering quality is not a differentiator. Because of this, Netflix is ripe for disruption, which we've been witnessing creep up slowly over the last decade. Netflix is easily the first of my several subscriptions to hit the chopping block, should…

If you follow the ratings (granted the ratings for streaming services are likely not as easy to calculate as network tv), Netflix pretty much dominates top 10 most watched shows every week. It's weaker on Movies but still does pretty well there as well.

If netflix keeps producing content at the rate it is, it won't be long until it has a fairly large back catalogue itself. At the end of the day it's Netflix's core business, whereas for most of the other streaming services it's a side gig.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#328

Post by neogodless »

It's interesting... Apple was originally founded in 1976, about a year after Microsoft. But we often hear about and think about FAANG, like with this poll. What sets Microsoft apart from this group?

They are "older" though, being older than Apple is more a measure of how long they've been successful. Microsoft and Apple often battle for larger market capitalization. They both deliver software and hardware, and the two of the most popular operating systems in use (Windows, Android, iOS). Microsoft is arguably more B2B, while Apple has a more recognized consumer brand.

Microsoft is infamous for messing up on the consumer end, and Windows 11 feels like a repeat of this. On the other hand, they are still doing well with their Xbox division. But are they omitted from this poll because of the assumption that their core business... selling to other businesses, will carry them on indefinitely?

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#329

Post by the_af »

PopAlongKid wrote: post #291
jamroom wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not an exaggeration - back when Netflix sent out DVD's by mail it WAS like having a Blockbuster in your living room (since Blockbuster didn't do streaming)

I only have Netflix disc rental (blu-ray, one disc out at a time, costs about $10/month). The library is huge and goes back decades. There are usually good user reviews at the Netflix web site for guidance. I suspect there are thousands of theatrically released movies that Netflix only offers on disc, not streaming. In the last ten years, I've rented almost 900 movies (including a few TV shows like Breaking Bad) on d…

> Discs have great resolution, often have bonus features, and almost always have closed captioning, which I appreciate more and more as I age.

Don't they get scratched these days? I remember the DVD days of Blockbuster, and also thinking "DVD as a technology is just not ready for rental" every time I got a disc that was scratched and/or had sticky stuff glued to it.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#330

Post by oaiey »

Amazon (Cloud and Shopping), Apple (Hardware), Google (Search, Apps, Cloud) and Microsoft (Cloud, Apps) will be fine. Amazon, Apple and Google will be more regulated but will stabilize like Microsoft. I do not see a growth model for Facebook. Selling ads with regulators all over the world fighting against you is nothing sustainable. And Netflix .. I mean .. look at their catalogue.
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