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Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#131

Post by gkoberger »

baxtr wrote: post #105

Ok. So FB ends up getting the top spot, which needs to be discounted by the utter hate for the company on HN. (They're called Meta btw) :) But, surprisingly Netflix seems to ending up on second place. I think that's shortsighted and not taking into account how deeply they're integrated into the film production industry by now. It's one thing to build a streaming platform and acquire some customers. It's a whole diffe…

Google? I think you mean Alphabet ;)

I think the problem with Netflix is there's a ceiling. Disney (which owns, like, all the IP out there... not to mention theme parks, sports and countless other things) is worth $288bn and Netflix is somehow worth $291bn!?

Sure, Netflix has some decent movies out there... but do you really think their catalogue even begins to touch Disney? Either Disney is undervalued (probably true) or Netflix is overvalued (definitely true), and Netflix doesn't currently seem to have significant momentum.

Source (Nov 2021): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-11/netflix-s...

EDIT: I posted a longer list of their IP below, but don't forget that Disney owns a majority of Hulu and their television/movies!

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#132

Post by jrsj »

cam0 wrote: post #17

I don't think people will stop using the Google search bar. I don't think people will stop binging shows on Netflix. I don't think people will stop ordering crap on Amazon. I don't think people who use iphones and macbooks will stop buying iphones and macbooks. Hard for me to see how it wouldn't be FB/meta. They're betting the farm on something unproven / creating new habits / maintaining habits that seem to be wanin…

Decline doesn’t require people to stop using Google search. It just requires a lack of growth, and Google isn’t really doing much of anything innovative. At least FB sees stagnation as a threat and is responding accordingly, Google seems to have its head so far up it’s own bureaucracy that it can’t execute effectively anymore.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#133

Post by jonathankoren »

lbrandy wrote: post #62
ecshafer wrote: post #25

Facebook is currently ahead, but I wonder how much of that is perception. There is a lot of media about how Facebook is evil, but that is mostly from a pretty small circle of media and political people, that Facebook is naturally in opposition to. Facebook also owns instagram and whatsapp as well. But everyone over 30 I know uses Facebook, heavily. Instagram is also used very heavily. Amazon has threats from other E-…

FWIW, I joined HN 14 years ago (wow) and there's never been a time in those 14 years that HN wasn't convinced that facebook's demise was just around the corner.

This is true, but the main reason was that people have been predicting this was that young people don’t want to be on a social network with their parents. This social dynamic prediction has played out, and Facebook did the 100% predictable thing that all rich entrenched players do — they bought the smaller competitors, most famously Instagram.

I fully expect them to continue to be able to monetize their user base, and purchase smaller competitors for a while.

The most recent warning flag for me is their rebranding. Announcing a major pivot to center on Occulus (I’m sorry “the metaverse”.), when VR has been nothing more than niche gaming is very weird and troublesome.

On the bright side, Facebook is a giant ossified megacorp. All that’s going to happen is some division is going to get new signage, and every PM is going to update their slide decks to say “metaverse”, and everyone is going to do what they were already doing.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#134

Post by jackweirdy »

MaxBarraclough wrote: post #117
artemonster wrote: post #15

I have loads of friends who started to cancel their netflix subs and went back to piracy because they grew tired of searching for a way to watch something legally. Now its disney, hbo, prime, whatever. Screw all of this.

A streaming subscription is much cheaper than a cable subscription, no? If you're a very heavy consumer of streaming video, doesn't it make sense that you'd pay more? I don't see why anyone should expect to get to stream everything they could want for a minimal monthly fee. Having to switch apps is a trivial inconvenience. Seems to me that price-point is what we should be focusing on, and I'm fairly confident things…

For many this is not wishing for cable again, rather going _back_ to pirating, which was itself better than cable.

Certainly myriad streaming services are better than cable- but are they better than pirating? Harder to be confident of that now than a few years ago

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#135

Post by jmknoll »

kdmccormick wrote: post #43
propter_hoc wrote: post #4

Netflix's inclusion in this list instead of Microsoft may have been the best investor-relations coup in history.

+1, it's ridiculous and misleading that Netflix is still being included in this list after all this time. Netflix is a TV company. Their tech is a commodity. An important commodity, for sure, but it's not what makes them valuable. Their critical offering is their reach and programming. FAAMG (or MAAAM now, I guess?) is a sane grouping of giant companies because their critical offerings and expertise areas are their s…

+2, FAANG was coined by Jim Cramer to be a grouping of fast growing tech stocks almost 10 years ago, not a grouping of the largest and most important tech companies. Apple and Microsoft are both about 10x the market cap of Netflix.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#136

Post by jamroom »

MaxBarraclough wrote: post #122
missedthecue wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember when a Netflix subscription was like having Blockbuster inside your living room. Now its mostly just Netflix originals which aren't necessarily bad but maybe not worth it's own subscription every month.

> I remember when a Netflix subscription was like having Blockbuster inside your living room. That's a great exaggeration. There was never a time when you could name a film and expect it to be on Netflix to stream.

It's not an exaggeration - back when Netflix sent out DVD's by mail it WAS like having a Blockbuster in your living room (since Blockbuster didn't do streaming)

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#137

Post by monkeybutton »

jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

Netflix is facing the rise of competing streaming platforms. They're forced into creating their own content because other producers would rather release content on their own platforms and keep all the streaming revenue, rather than license it to Netflix. Streaming video on demand isn't a technical moat that is stopping anyone.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#138

Post by jrsj »

hi5eyes wrote: post #71

HN is really convinced the only other player in the online ad market besides Google is going to decline?

Kind of silly to me the choice is FB when they are at least actively working to expand into new areas while Google is sort of just…existing

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#139

Post by chermi »

Victerius wrote: post #14
chermi wrote: post #3

Is there any way to hide the votes until you've voted?

No.

Bummer, I suspect that biased the poll quite a bit. Facebook had an early lead when I first commented. It's on everyone's mind from recent news, so it was going to lean Facebook regardless I'm guessing.

Edit only for poor sentences, no content change.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#140

Post by DuskStar »

MaxBarraclough wrote: post #122
missedthecue wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember when a Netflix subscription was like having Blockbuster inside your living room. Now its mostly just Netflix originals which aren't necessarily bad but maybe not worth it's own subscription every month.

> I remember when a Netflix subscription was like having Blockbuster inside your living room. That's a great exaggeration. There was never a time when you could name a film and expect it to be on Netflix to stream.

But there might have been a time where it was reasonable to expect every movie to be on DVD and mailed to you.
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