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Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?
221–230 of 660 posts
Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?
#222All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…
Google to me seems to be the one with the worst execution at the moment. For all of their spend in various areas when is the last time they’ve had a win? Their core business is still strong but they seem to have lost their ability to innovate. That alone makes their decline seem inevitable to me even without considering external forces
You can't think of any times they've had a win? They saw the largest growth of any FAANG in the past year. What about cloud and devices (pixel, nest, stadia, Chromecast, etc.)? They made 22 billion just on "other" bets in 2020.
With some of their big bets in custom SoCs, waymo, verily, and all of the research that comes out of it (especially in ML) are certainly interesting, I don't think any other companies are innovating at that level. Whether or not they will profit is another matter, of course.
Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?
#223My guess is Netflix, I think the others have much wider moats. No actual number crunching was involved in producing this guess.
I agree regarding the moat, but I think Netflix could still do fairly well as one of N big players in the streaming space. On the other hand, I think we could see FB utterly collapse over the next decade. Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking.
> I think Netflix could still do fairly well as one of N big players in the streaming space.
I disagree. I play for Netflix and Amazon Prime video (that was a cross-sell). I'm not playing for another.
If everything is one one service, then I'll pay for it. That was the original promise of Netflix. But now everyone wants to play that game.
Two services, maybe I'll pay. N services? Screw that, might as well go back to torrenting. And then, why keep Netflix?
Paying for TV shows is _voluntary_. Consumers are willing to pay, but only up to a point. Jerk them around too much, and the consent goes away - not only will Netflix get only a slice of the pie, but the whole pie will be smaller.
Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?
#224Earlier quoted context omitted.
We literally went back to cable because other than the ideology, it wasn't beneficial. For the streaming services I do want, I can actually order then through Xfinity and keep things simple.
I recently stayed somewhere with cable and relatives were watching content for the holidays. I was reminded of just how obnoxious having 30+ minutes of ads for 1.5 hours of content is. I’d rather just not have any content.
Yeah I can't watch anything with unskipable ads anymore. It's just not worth it. The one exception is live sports, but that's not soo bad because there are timeouts anyway. I just hit mute when the ads are running.
Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?
#225Facebook is only going up with its advantage in VR platforms.
Netflix, on the other hand, has no real competitive advantage at this point except being the oldest streaming service with a good brand.
Google is too big and too diverse to fail.
Amazon's Cloud computing is going strong, still the dominant eBook platform and now dominant audiobook platform, plus retail.
Apple's margins are always good. They don't need to do anything different.
When Microsoft and IBM didn't fall after a decade of bad decision making I've lost faith in "no one is too big to fail".
Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?
#226Earlier quoted context omitted.
Netflix still offers their DVD service.
Does anyone use it? I am thinking that people are so accustomed to immediate online gratification that waiting a day or three for a DVD in the mail is just not something a lot of people will do anymore. That means you are going to have to think ahead about what you want to watch, and plan a time to do it, rather than just flopping down on the couch and surfing to find whatever catches your eye. And many people don't…
I don't personally as I don't even have a disc drive in my house but when looking online, people in rural areas use it apparently.
Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?
#227All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…
Netflix is facing the rise of competing streaming platforms. They're forced into creating their own content because other producers would rather release content on their own platforms and keep all the streaming revenue, rather than license it to Netflix. Streaming video on demand isn't a technical moat that is stopping anyone.
Netflix is just another television network at this point, pivoting from being primarily a tech company. There's a bunch of content which jumps around between different streaming services, but Netflix produced shows and movies are on solid ground at this point (eg, Stranger Things is over 5 years old). It's weird that it's included in the same list as these others.
If they came out with a phone, office suite, cloud service, social network, or something of that ilk, then yeah they'd be more in "tech company" territory again. Until then their engineering is going to assist their content production, not the other way around.
Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?
#228I have loads of friends who started to cancel their netflix subs and went back to piracy because they grew tired of searching for a way to watch something legally. Now its disney, hbo, prime, whatever. Screw all of this.
Most people I know just share accounts, nobody is paying for all of these subscriptions, just one or two.
Getting harder to do. I even have a family plan for YouTube TV and sometimes get the "too many people watching" blocker.
Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?
#229Ok. So FB ends up getting the top spot, which needs to be discounted by the utter hate for the company on HN. (They're called Meta btw) :) But, surprisingly Netflix seems to ending up on second place. I think that's shortsighted and not taking into account how deeply they're integrated into the film production industry by now. It's one thing to build a streaming platform and acquire some customers. It's a whole diffe…
Google? I think you mean Alphabet ;) I think the problem with Netflix is there's a ceiling. Disney (which owns, like, all the IP out there... not to mention theme parks, sports and countless other things) is worth $288bn and Netflix is somehow worth $291bn!? Sure, Netflix has some decent movies out there... but do you really think their catalogue even begins to touch Disney? Either Disney is undervalued (probably tru…
> Google? I think you mean Alphabet ;)
Touché!
Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?
#230All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…
Netflix is already on the way down. They infused all of their new shows with wokeness. Every new show feels like woke concepts are shoehorned in without regard for their impact on the story that's told.
Look at the Witcher for an example. Or if you want to see this kind of shift happening over the course of a show, look at Madam Secretary. Season 1 didn't feature any of this crap and showed a strong woman main character that wasn't shoehorned in, by the last season everything was about "hurr durr let's ban guns and white men suck".
I'm not even white and I can notice the excellent storylines being ruined. It's like the writers don't know how to write a story with woke concepts that's actually strong so instead they shove it into every successful show until the show isn't successful anymore. HBO and Disney are going to eat their lunch at this rate with more compelling content.