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Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

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Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#151

Post by faut_reflechir »

Initially voted Google based on a hunch: Google Search is the most likely flagship product of a FAANG to get displaced by a competitor. Unlike, say, Amazon as a hub for products or Facebook as a social network, Google Search is not a natural monopoly -- there's no inherent reason a search engine should maintain dominance if it loses its competitive advantage. The complaints from tech friends ("you can't find anything anymore") that I've heard for years now are starting to come from tech-agnostic family instead. Alternatives are still worse, but it's easy to imagine a breakthrough.

However, this doesn't mean Google/Alphabet itself, with its diverse product suite and huge amount of advertising data, will decline in any meaningful sense; that will happen on a much slower scale.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#152

Post by 8ytecoder »

stouset wrote: post #109
janosett wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Apple TV does this, essentially.

It does, but Netflix is the one provider (that I know of) that's decided to entirely opt out of Apple TV integration, so I can't add any of their shows to my universal queue and have to specifically switch to Netflix to see what I'm in the middle of or want I to watch next.

I have a premium subscription but end up forgetting to watch Netflix because they won't integrate with Up Next. I pick something from my queue - I mean you usually watch TV when your brain is fried and it's not going to remember everything. Don't know why they're so adamant about this.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#153

Post by BoysenberryPi »

MaxBarraclough wrote: post #122
missedthecue wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember when a Netflix subscription was like having Blockbuster inside your living room. Now its mostly just Netflix originals which aren't necessarily bad but maybe not worth it's own subscription every month.

> I remember when a Netflix subscription was like having Blockbuster inside your living room. That's a great exaggeration. There was never a time when you could name a film and expect it to be on Netflix to stream.

You're showing your age. There was a time when you could ask Netflix for any number of DVDs for almost any movie and have it sent to you.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#154

Post by bachmeier »

Google seems like the obvious choice. They rely on people continuing to use search in its current form. I don't see how that survives the next ten years. It's too obviously ripe for replacement. It's not at all a stretch to say search is for the most part a waste of time if you're going to type a phrase into a text entry box and read the results.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#155

Post by physicsguy »

artemonster wrote: post #15

I have loads of friends who started to cancel their netflix subs and went back to piracy because they grew tired of searching for a way to watch something legally. Now its disney, hbo, prime, whatever. Screw all of this.

Most people I know just share accounts, nobody is paying for all of these subscriptions, just one or two.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#156

Post by ramesh31 »

Everyone here loves to hate on Facebook, but they're not going anywhere. They have successfully metastasized out into the web in a way that irreversible. Instagram is still the hottest thing around, and will be for the foreseeable future.

Of this list, Netflix is the only obvious one that will see serious user loss. They had a great thing going for about 10 years until the pandemic knocked every Hollywood exec upside the head to realize that streaming is no longer optional. Netflix has been reduced almost entirely to their own content at this point as every other producer is running their own service now. And Netflix original content is... spotty at best.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#157

Post by 8ytecoder »

yanbianhobo wrote: post #94
iso1210 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of that is way cheaper (currently) than cable. The biggest problem is finding what you want. Need a TV Guide for streaming, so I can search for say "The Martian", and it would tell me "This is on netflix in your country", or "this isn't available on subscription, but you can rent it on amazon for x.xx or buy it on apple tv for y.yy"

I use justwatch for this

Yup. Apple TV for most things and Just Watch for obscure stuff or if there's a chance it could be on Netflix. Just Watch has some major blindspots. I have had multiple searches that return wrong titles.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#158

Post by tester756 »

jarjoura wrote: post #96

All of these companies are too big to fail at this point. They all have at least a decade of reserves to power through anything that gets thrown their way. However, I do predict that they will change in significant ways in the next decade. * Apple is one Supreme Court ruling away from ending their App Store monopoly that could disrupt the entire world, since it would also affect all other digital marketplaces. * Amaz…

>* Netflix has some of the worlds brightest minds in data science

Which of Google, Facebook, Microsoft doesn't?

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#159

Post by mgraczyk »

I worked at Facebook last year and Google this year. I don't have an insider view of the other companies but some of my closest friends work at all of them except Netflix.

My guess is that none of these will stop growing in the next few years, but Facebook is especially undervalued. They execute on new products faster and better than the others listed, so regardless of current sentiment they are probably not going to fail any time soon.

I chose Netflix because I have the least evidence to suggest they will remain stable, but would say the odds are <10% any of these have a lower market cap in 5 years than they do now.

Re: Poll: Which FAANG is the most likely to decline in the years ahead?

#160

Post by drstewart »

jeffdubin wrote: post #51

Amazon, Apple, and Google are each well-entrenched and also have a good bit of cash and patents available to pivot or crush competitors if necessary. Plus if broken up (e.g. by gov't antitrust regs, etc.) each would have multiple sustainable businesses that could survive independently of the main company. Netflix will buy/be bought. Much like cell phone carriers, ISPs, and CATV companies, consolidation will leave onl…

>Netflix would be a nice addition to Peacock or Paramount+ and would give each a sense of legitimacy.

??

Netflix is worth more than both Universal and CBS combined.

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