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Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

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Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#511

Post by freyr »

Zigurd wrote: post #508
halpert wrote: post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Asking someone to look up some numbers for you to complete your random hypothesis isn't exactly constructive either way.

It's not just lazy, it's derailing.

What exactly am I derailing? An unsubstantiated claim made by OP that contradicts details provided in the parent article?

“Most of the claims for deaths being filed are not classified as COVID-19 deaths … there were far fewer deaths from COVID-19 in Indiana compared to a year ago – 195 verses 336 – but more deaths from other causes – 1,350 versus 1,319 … the moving average of daily deaths from COVID-19 is less than half of what it was a year ago”

“Lazy” is not reading the article. And if “derailing” an unfounded assumption to better understand these deaths is wrong, I don’t want to be right.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#512

Post by joshuahedlund »

halfjoking wrote: post #437
jollybean wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are confusing your data badly. Each of your references are saying completely different things. 1) non-covid excess mortality 2) mortality rate between those vaxxed and not vaxxed. 3) Reteurs was not 'debunking' point 2 or point 1. They are 'debunking' crap statements on Joe Rogan Podcast about the absollute numbers of those dying from COVID in general. Alex Berenson is terribly misrepresenting information. So whe…

> 59-year-olds are vaxxed at a much higher rate than 10 or 20 year olds. This is the only intelligent response to explain why overall mortality is 2X higher in the vaxxed group. I agree with you this could be an explanation. The problem is it still completely destroys the idea that unvaccinated are the ones who should be restricted from society. It shows your age is more important than vaccine status. Someone being o…

> prove hundreds of thousands have died from the vaccine. Here are some more:

That link doesn’t “prove” anything. By its own admission, it’s a “hypothesis”, and it’s based on a number of questionable assumptions, including assuming there’s a 41x multiplier of reported anaphylactic events immediately after vaccination, (plausible), assuming it’s comparable to a multiplier of reported deaths over a much longer time period (not plausible), and then assuming what percentages of those multiplied unreported deaths are “legitimate” based on a host of small sample sizes that, even if they are accurate (another assumption), we have no idea if they are representative enough to accurately scale to much larger numbers (completely implausible)

Besides, the theory doesn’t even pass the smell test. The months last year with the lowest excess deaths in the US - March and April - just happen to be the months with the highest numbers of administered covid vaccine doses

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=~USA

Note that it’s possible the vaccines are less safe than advertised and that adverse events and even deaths are more common than acknowledged (and that vaccine mandates are wrong), and for those true numbers to be much smaller than 150,000

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#513

Post by dillondoyle »

worik wrote: post #373
dillondoyle wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it's not just opiate users. People buying coke & 'molly' are overdosing too from fent and analogues too. Why in the world would a dealer put fent into coke. I guess a speedball feels great but the average weekend partier doing a bump or a pill are not looking to walk that death tightrope. Just sad all around and we still have a long way to go with stigma and science based treatment. If you happen to be in that sc…

A very powerful argument for legalising forms of those drugs for recreational use.

Yea please! Decriminalizing would be a great first step but won't cut out the cartels and gangs and adulteration (kind word for poisoning..)

Would also love to see over the counter narcan. suboxone for any who wants it without the compliance burden.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#514

Post by rhino369 »

thebooktocome wrote: post #424
syshum wrote: post #410

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Body Positivity movement started out with a good goal, but went off the rails with the obesity == healthy BS. However if you want to solve obesity, especially the morbid obesity shamming will never resolve that as chances are the obesity is cased by an underlying metal or medical issue. most often an anxiety disorder of some kind, and socially shaming someone that suffers from anxiety is not going to cure them, and i…

The primary cause of obesity — in my experience, as a midwesterner — is a lack of access to affordable, healthy food. What people can afford (in terms of money/time/opportunity cost) is primarily overprocessed garbage. It’s mostly impossible to maintain a healthy weight in such an environment. Yes, I’m aware of the twinkie diet guy. Most people aren’t the twinkie diet guy.

I don't buy that. The vast majority of people would save substantial money by eating better--either by cutting out fast food or by avoiding junk food.

Convenience/time is a big issue, but its not like the upscale versions of fast food are really that better for you.

It's a cultural thing. Nobody eating a big mac for dinner every night would switch to kale salad from Whole Foods if they got a raise. America never had a good food culture and what little we even had was based on stay-at-home wife.

Money isn't the reason why lower class Hispanic and Asian areas can support grocers with quality produce, but white lower class areas don't.

Half my families "recipes" originated on mass produced canned/boxed food labels. My grandmas chicken and rice dish calls for cambells and uncle bens. Regardless, I love it anyway.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#515

Post by hamburglar »

freyr wrote: post #509
halpert wrote: post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Asking someone to look up some numbers for you to complete your random hypothesis isn't exactly constructive either way.

The random hypothesis was made by OP, who inferred that the 45% increase in deaths is due to Covid-19. I would guess a lot of that 45% is due to Covid, but how much would be a guess, and I suspect OP is just guessing too. Overdoses are historically one of the leading causes of death among people in this age range, and we’re also setting records for overdose deaths this year [0], but that gets no almost coverage compa…

A really useful exercise you can do for yourself (I did it) is to download the CDC total US deaths data and plot each of the past 7 years as lines on an x axis that goes from week 1 to week 52 of the year. Keeping in mind that this graph does not take cause of death into account, you will note two striking features: 1) the death curves for the 5 years up to and including 2019 are extremely similar, with the exception that you can tell they are overall slightly elevated one winter by a particularly bad flu season (I think it was end of 2017 / beginning of 2018). And 2) 2020 and 2021 have very large Covid-surge-shaped excess death bumps that imply an incredibly strong correlation between Covid and the deviation in deaths from “normal” years. And if you find the delta between a “normal” year and the ones with the Covid-shaped bumps in it, it matches up extremely closely with the numbers CDC is also reporting as “Covid-related deaths.”

In order to say that a significant number of these are drug and suicide deaths, you’d also have to be positing a theory that drug and suicide deaths are also for some reason elevating themselves in precise timing with the Covid surges. I’m not going to claim this is impossible, but it does seem extremely far fetched to me, and I suspect seeing the data laid out like I describe would probably make you abandon your theory. (Edit: using ‘your theory’ colloquially here. I know you havent posited any specific theory here, but your line of reasoning and skepticism is clear)

Edit to add: I actually don’t doubt that excess drug and suicide deaths are partially responsible for general elevated death numbers. Lockdowns, isolation, job losses, etc are all certainly driving some of this. But these are slow and steady drivers, not ones that rise and fall precisely with the number of Covid cases, which takes me to the conclusion that they are in the noise compared to Covid itself. (And the CDC death categorizations happen to agree with that)

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#516

Post by tomcam »

PragmaticPulp wrote: post #77
ganoushoreilly wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Within my brothers circle of friends / former friends etc, amongst those that participate in recreational drug use, there have been a crazy number of Fentanyl related deaths. They're all between the ages of 25 - 30. I can't help but wonder how much this has an impact.

All of the non-COVID deaths I’ve heard of among younger people ( Working from home can remove a lot of the accountability that keeps addicts in check. When your coworkers can’t see you, it’s much easier to be inebriated or otherwise suffering from addiction-related issues without feeling social pressure to correct it.

Thank you for saying < 60 is young!

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#517

Post by honkdaddy »

freyr wrote: post #464
lkrubner wrote: post #459

Many people kept insisting "Not many young people are dying from Covid-19" a statement that over looked the fact that, under normal circumstances, not many young people die at all. But there was an article in the New York Times that offered these facts about people aged 20 to 40. July, 2019: 11,000 dead July, 2020: 16,000 dead Both numbers are small in a country where 3 million people die each year, about 250,000 a m…

How many Covid-related? How many drug overdoses? How many suicides?

Scott Alexander actually wrote about COVID related suicides and why they haven't risen nearly as much as one might have expected.

https://www.worksinprogress.co/issue/why-didnt-suicides-rise...

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#518

Post by cpitman »

hamburglar wrote: post #515
freyr wrote: post #509

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The random hypothesis was made by OP, who inferred that the 45% increase in deaths is due to Covid-19. I would guess a lot of that 45% is due to Covid, but how much would be a guess, and I suspect OP is just guessing too. Overdoses are historically one of the leading causes of death among people in this age range, and we’re also setting records for overdose deaths this year [0], but that gets no almost coverage compa…

A really useful exercise you can do for yourself (I did it) is to download the CDC total US deaths data and plot each of the past 7 years as lines on an x axis that goes from week 1 to week 52 of the year. Keeping in mind that this graph does not take cause of death into account, you will note two striking features: 1) the death curves for the 5 years up to and including 2019 are extremely similar, with the exception…

For anyone who wants to see this data without running the numbers themselves, the CDC has a dashboard showing total weekly deaths per week over the last several years, the trend line, and the obvious significant increases over the last couple years. They update it weekly, but it takes a couple weeks for the data to become accurate (the recent weeks have always been an undercount while reporting catches up).

For interpretation, the orange line is average expected deaths for that week, and you'd expect weekly deaths to cluster around that. Red is the "upper bound threshold", ie deaths over this are way out of the norm.

You can also switch the dashboard to "Excess deaths with and without COVID-19", which shows the same bar chart but with reported covid deaths stacked on top of non-covid reported deaths. It makes it clear that (1) excess deaths line up very well with reported deaths and (2) the US has done an overall good job of reporting covid deaths, outside of some probable undercounting at the very start.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#519

Post by FabHK »

sm4rk0 wrote: post #347
FabHK wrote: post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could check for excess mortality among vaccinated and unvaccinated people. I think the data is very clear: vaccination does not lead to excess mortality (unlike COVID).

What data are you citing? There's official data showing the opposite (I personally checked each data point in that graph): https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/vaccinated-english-adult...

You need to compare within narrower age groups. Older people are more likely to be vaccinated and more likely to die.

https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2021/11/fact-check-vaccin...

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#520

Post by irjustin »

I really appreciate the forwardness of the CEO w/ data, but this one seems interesting:

> Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic

Clearly the model doesn't account any massive problems to your customer base. 1-in-200yr is only the age of the country. Pandemics happen "relatively regularly" on those time scales[0].

Interesting balances though. $100mm losses w/ the current models vs the pandemic.

Clearly life insurances will get quite expensive for a while.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

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