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Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

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Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#391

Post by nn3 »

LorenPechtel wrote: post #369
nn3 wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe it's similar to the well known "more likely to be hit by a meteorite than to win the lottery" style statements. Obviously that's completely wrong: i've never heard of anyone being hit by a meteorite, but people win the lottery every month. I'm not saying that they're actively lying, but it seems some assumptions in these frequentist's numbers are just not correct.

They're not lying. It's just meteorite kills are very clumpy. I'm not a lottery player so I can't give a good estimate on the number of lottery winners, but for the major jackpots I'll guess many per year. AFIAK we have no documented meteorite deaths--but it looks like the destruction of Sodom (of biblical fame) was a meteorite. While obviously we have no death toll it's obviously a *lot* of years of major lottery wi…

AFAIK the Sodom story was pretty much debunked

https://retractionwatch.com/2021/10/01/criticism-engulfs-pap...

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#392

Post by worik »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #244
sigstoat wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that by using the term "3 sigma" I'm assuming they're modeling the data as a normal distribution variance and standard deviation don't only apply to normal distributions. and "sigma" is the symbol normally used for variance regardless of the underlying distribution. > I'm assuming sigh.

Yes, I'm fully aware that variance and standard deviation apply to any sample or population, and that sigma is normally used for standard deviation. However, in everyday usage, saying something is a "2 or 3 sigma" event nearly always refers to a normal distribution unless otherwise noted, because otherwise that information doesn't really tell you anything. Is only with a specific distribution that can imply a percent…

The point is that you expect a normal distribution without fat tails. Fat tails are a sign of non random processes. Which lets you know some non random process is happening.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#393

Post by daenz »

542458 wrote: post #384
daenz wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>comparisons of counts is meaningless Even if the data is biased, it's still useful when you account for the biases. What are you proposing is the bias for 2021?

A potential bias for 2021 would be that: In 2021 some people are worried about a vaccine->heart link and for any given event may be more likely to document it online and/or add it to Wikipedia. As such we might not be measuring number of cardiac arrests, and actually may be measuring public attention paid to cardiac arrest.

What test could prove or disprove that hypothesis? Creating some criteria by which to include a death in the statistic? (eg, notability)

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#394

Post by Spooky23 »

dukeofdoom wrote: post #306
Spooky23 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The anti-vaccination people don’t need facts, so anything that creates FUD works for them. I live in a protest corridor, and the “freedom lovers” were demanding that we sacrifice the weak and old so that they could enjoy not getting a vaccine. It’s a gross type of mental illness.

The vaccine does not prevent anyone from getting or spreading covid. In Ontario same case rate of covid per 100k residents, in unxxed as vaxxed and heading higher. 3rd graph. https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data?fbclid=IwAR2pRUq9GN9EEoDTm0...

I don't think that is seriously questioned with the Delta and Omicron variants. Vaccines do seem, however, to reduce the probability of having a serious infection that requires hospitalization or ICU admission. It's a novel virus and it and the situation around it evolves very quickly.

The anti-vax crowd conveniently ignores that detail, and unfortunately the people who give them credence are paying the price through needless suffering or even death.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#395

Post by incrudible »

LorenPechtel wrote: post #376
dukeofdoom wrote: post #231

This examination of pfizer's own vaccine safety study, claims that it shows an increase in all risk mortality. https://www.canadiancovidcarealliance.org/media-resources/th...

Just from the name I strongly suspect it's one of the disinformation spreaders.

The information itself is neutral. The channel is not. Unfortunately, this information isn't digested by the sort of critical and investigative journalism that should exist in our society. The obviously wrong or misleading information gets "fact checked", but this just gets ignored. There's no room for nuance when the prevailing belief is that "everyone must get vaccinated or people will die".

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#396

Post by fundad »

johnnyApplePRNG wrote: post #305
whack wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luckily we don't need too vivid an imagination to find the answer. The data shows that the main cause of higher death rates is covid, not loneliness.

Source? The article does not have an answer or provide any data. It only talks about the uptick in deaths not attributed to covid.

The deaths could all be fire extinguisher attacks

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#397

Post by evv555 »

mlyle wrote: post #364
evv555 wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>"Eh, more people die from fentanyl, so X isn't so bad" The increase in deaths is being driven by lockdown/social isolation so it looks more like medical triage. Who do you save, upperclass/baby boomers who generally don't have these problems or disenfranchised young?

> The increase in deaths is being driven by lockdown/social isolation so it looks more like medical triage. This is an argument many make, but it's not a really good argument. - Fentanyl deaths were trending up before 2020. - The degree to which fentanyl is lacing other street drugs is unprecedented and seemingly independent of lockdown. - Look, we don't really have "lockdown" anymore.

>- Fentanyl deaths were trending up before 2020.

They were trending up but there was a very sharp increase once the epidemic started.

>- The degree to which fentanyl is lacing other street drugs is unprecedented and seemingly independent of lockdown.

There was precedent before 2019. Seemingly independent growth that's also parabolic during 2020? Unlikely

>- Look, we don't really have "lockdown" anymore.

The genie is out of the bottle once people relapse. Maybe you don't realize how dependent recovering addicts are on rehab programs and social connections to stay clean. For some people giving them a steady unemployment income and forcing them to isolate is basically a death sentence. This was a predicted outcome during the start of the isolation.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#398

Post by throwawayboise »

joe_the_user wrote: post #356
ganoushoreilly wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Within my brothers circle of friends / former friends etc, amongst those that participate in recreational drug use, there have been a crazy number of Fentanyl related deaths. They're all between the ages of 25 - 30. I can't help but wonder how much this has an impact.

US has had both a drug-addiction epidemic, a diabetes epidemic and an obesity epidemic. Each these conditions doesn't just reduce lifespan. They also put people in a more fragile life-situation where they need more support. And the US hasn't been at maintaining those kinds of support during the epidemic. Edit: The US life expectancy decline relative to other advanced nations is relevant. Take a look at the following…

And makes people more vulnerable when they contract other diseases. COVID hits harder if you are diabetic and/or obese, for example. The people who try to promote body positivity are doing a disservice to the overweight. You cannot be healthy and fat, and we should not pretend otherwise to spare hurt feelings.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#399

Post by throwawayboise »

benjaminwootton wrote: post #132
frellus wrote: post #117

Pandemics are defined by "excess deaths" so nothing really surprising here.

Covid is vanishingly unlikely to kill people in this age group. I always find it hard to find a clear number when I Google for a recent IFR, but it’s a fraction of a fraction of a percent.

Death from any cause is unlikely in this age group. When the denominator is already small, small changes mortality can be cast as an alarming-sounding "40% increase" you really need to look at the raw numbers.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#400

Post by mellavora »

dukeofdoom wrote: post #264

I run the same trail for over 10 years. In the last year, I had to call 911 for a guy with chest pains and twice for suicidal women waiting on the train tracks for the train. Never happened before. I'm a little scared we may be entering a period of mass psychosis which is more deadly than any virus. The psychological conditions that lead people to burn witches and the rise of dictatorships are here. If I was richer I…

huh, I thought New Zealand was the preferred bug-out island.
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