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Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

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Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#101

Post by vasilipupkin »

jb1991 wrote: post #76
k2enemy wrote: post #6

I'm actually surprised it is not higher. For 40-64 year old in the US, the annual chance of death is about half a percent (before covid) so a 40% increase is still a very low mortality rate. https://hdpulse.nimhd.nih.gov/data/deathrates/index.php?stat...

I’m surprised it is as high as you claim! You’re saying that for that age group, in a given year, the chances are 1 in 200 of dying? That seems like pretty bad odds on something that is literally life and death.

think of it this way, 1 in 200 means the chance that you will not die is 99.5% When put that way, sounds pretty good, right?

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#102

Post by Retric »

andrewclunn wrote: post #12

> "The CDC weekly death counts, which reflect the information on death certificates and so have a lag of up to eight weeks or longer, show that for the week ending Nov. 6, there were far fewer deaths from COVID-19 in Indiana compared to a year ago – 195 verses 336 – but more deaths from other causes – 1,350 versus 1,319." So last year more covid deaths (particularly among the elderly), but while those numbers have de…

> something has happened

Changes in death rates directly relate to relative vaccination rates. Vaccination was initially rolled out to the elderly they where also more willing to get vaccinated. It’s strange to think that 75 year olds grew up in a time period where several horrific diseases disappeared due to vaccination efforts. It it’s clear they have a lot more faith in vaccination.

https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccination-and-C...

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#103

Post by notreallyserio »

netizen-936824 wrote: post #82
notreallyserio wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dunno what the disconnect is but you may be the only one struggling with the meaning behind the words. I don't see him referring to the death rate of people outside 18-64 at all. You could say his information is biased because it is limited to folks that have insurance through his company, but he's up front about that.

>it’s not elderly people who are dying Quoted verbatim from the source article. This is a plain statement on the death rate of that specific age group.

Do you think he's saying elderly people aren't dying? Because that's what those precise words would mean when you take them out of context. In context, it's clear that he's not talking about elderly people at all.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#104

Post by brianwawok »

brilee wrote: post #81
jb1991 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m surprised it is as high as you claim! You’re saying that for that age group, in a given year, the chances are 1 in 200 of dying? That seems like pretty bad odds on something that is literally life and death.

Assuming risk is evenly distributed between birth and death, you would expect a 1 in 80 chance of dying in any given year. But since the risk is loaded towards the later years of life, 1 in 200 during the earlier years sounds about right. Perhaps it's 2x higher than I would have guessed otherwise, but it's the right order of magnitude.

No that is bad math around 1/80.

If the average person had a 1/80 chance to die each year, the average life expectancy would be 40 years.

Think about this another way. You have a gun with 80 chambers and 1 bullet. How many times on average can you point it at your head and pull the trigger before it goes off? Would you still argue 80 times? On average it is the last chamber?

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#105

Post by [deleted] »

netizen-936824 wrote: post #41
whatever1 wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are we reading the same sentence?

So how do you interpret it? My interpretation is that this guy runs an insurance company who insures working age people through their employers. That is the source of the data, so he is missing data on elderly people Yet he makes a claim that the people he does not have data on are dying at a lower rate than the people he does have data on. This makes no sense, as you can't make a comparison when you simply don't hav…

[deleted]

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#107

Post by minitoar »

brilee wrote: post #81
jb1991 wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m surprised it is as high as you claim! You’re saying that for that age group, in a given year, the chances are 1 in 200 of dying? That seems like pretty bad odds on something that is literally life and death.

Assuming risk is evenly distributed between birth and death, you would expect a 1 in 80 chance of dying in any given year. But since the risk is loaded towards the later years of life, 1 in 200 during the earlier years sounds about right. Perhaps it's 2x higher than I would have guessed otherwise, but it's the right order of magnitude.

I think motor vehicle related mortality really shifts the risk forward.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#108

Post by rob74 »

derefr wrote: post #87
rob74 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IANAL, but I doubt that sites not available in the EU are legally obligated to annoy non-EU visitors with cookie consent banners? Of course, it's easier to annoy everyone, but if you can block EU visitors based on their IP you can also show the cookie consent banner only for these IPs?

Because the banners are targeted at EU citizens, not people geographically within the EU. You're required to show the banners to e.g. EU citizens living in the US. ETA: under GDPR, blocking the EU geographically (e.g. via GeoIP), in combination with requiring user registrations to specify that they’re not EU citizens, would be considered a “good-faith effort” to avoid collecting the data of EU citizens.

Ok, that's pretty absurd and technically impossible, but blocking users from the EU, as many US sites do, does not "fix" for this issue, because EU users living in the US will be able to use the site without getting a cookie banner.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#109

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

TRossi wrote: post #75

“Just to give you an idea of how bad that is, a three-sigma or a one-in-200-year catastrophe would be 10% increase over pre-pandemic,” he said. “So 40% is just unheard of.” This sounds very strange indeed, I'd like to see the numbers. For instance Euromomo https://www.euromomo.eu collects the statistics about death rates, here is a plot for the Italian death rate and you can see the mortality spikes with the covid wa…

Doesn't seem that is unbelievable at all to me. Instead I think it just highlights how humans can discount the severity of something when it moves slowly and continues for years.

Remember the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004 that was a major catastrophe around the world? According to a Google search it killed 227,898 people. Last I checked Covid had killed about 5.5 million, which is worse that every single war since WWII.

Of course, I think it's very fair to say the devastation from a war is much worse than Covid (a war destroys infrastructure and primarily kills the young), but from a pure "number of deaths" perspective I think most people have a huge difficulty comprehending the severity of the pandemic.

Re: Indiana life insurance CEO says deaths are up 40% among people ages 18-64

#110

Post by disgruntledphd2 »

dazc wrote: post #54
CoastalCoder wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why?

The burden of complying with EU privacy laws that benefit no one aside from a powerful lobby group of EU-based media businesses.

Huh? Personally, as an EU citizen, I like the laws, and feel like they benefit me.
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