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New Temperature Records for the UK

metoffice.gov.uk

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Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#91
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I added a greenland temperature chart overlayed with historical events. Yes, the previous warm periods mentioned where global, they where a lot warmer than today and things mostly got better. The last IPCC report fails to account for global greening, which is a giant effect. https://www.nasa.gov/feature/greening-of-the-earth-mitigates...

I’ve worked with MODIS satellite data. Quoting your own link: """The vegetation cooling effect is large from the energy dissipation perspective, but only about 10%-20% compared to the pace of global warming. The cooling effect from greening is less significant in tropical forests with high leaf areas.""" Regarding the previous warm periods, I was right, and I just now found the following reference to demonstrate this…

Lüning et al. June 2019.

"Abstract The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is a well-recognized climate perturbation in many parts of the world, with a core period of 1000–1200 CE. Here we are mapping the MCA across the Antarctic region based on the analysis of published palaeotemperature proxy data from 60 sites. In addition to the conventionally used ice core data, we are integrating temperature proxy records from marine and terrestrial sediment cores as well as radiocarbon ages of glacier moraines and elephant seal colonies. A generally warm MCA compared to the subsequent Little Ice Age (LIA) was found for the Subantarctic Islands south of the Antarctic Convergence, the Antarctic Peninsula, Victoria Land and central West Antarctica. A somewhat less clear MCA warm signal was detected for the majority of East Antarctica. MCA cooling occurred in the Ross Ice Shelf region, and probably in the Weddell Sea and on Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf. Spatial distribution of MCA cooling and warming follows modern dipole patterns, as reflected by areas of opposing temperature trends. Main drivers of the multi-centennial scale climate variability appear to be the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which are linked to solar activity changes by nonlinear dynamics." https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00310...

Edit: Bonus climate reconstruction from 1268 studies of the MWP https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1akI_yGSUlO_qEvrmrI...

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#92
post #23

I see people talking about weather getting unpredictable. This was predictable, and was predicted: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ . The technical summary is 160 pages and should be required reading for anyone over the age of 13: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6... . The Paris Agreement, for all its problems, tries to keep increase below 1.5 C over pre-industrial. We are locked in for…

I do, I just don't see any pointles in fighting a hopeless war that is already lost.

Brutal attitude, also wrong. 2 degrees warming is probably inevitable at this point. Not great. But 3 degrees is much worse than 2, and 4 is much worse than 3, etc. There’s no concept of losing, just how bad it will get for future generations.

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#93
post #88

This is very menacing, more than could seem at first glance. All sort of crops could bloom much too soon, and be destroyed at the next cold event. And every summer from now on, we'll be under the menace of an extreme hot event destroying major cereal crops around the world. Global food shortage could be around the corner every year, forever. Combine that with a looming fossil fuel supply crunch, and we're on the verg…

Don't worry, this is roughly the opposite of what has been observed. The growing seasons are getting longer, the earth is greening. [0]

And looking back at previous warm periods it looks like things mostly got better during warm ages and nose dived during the cold. https://imgr.search.brave.com/v3hRyzU6Mm1ShpkX2Z4SEYasQRtDD-...

[0] Global Greening

Greening of the globe and its drivers - Nature 2016 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3004 "Satellite records from 1982–2009 show a persistent and widespread increase of leaf area (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing leaf area (browning). Ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilisation effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (4%)."

Elevated CO2 as a driver of global dryland greening - Nature 2016 https://www.nature.com/articles/srep20716 "Recent regional scale analyses using satellite based vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), have found extensive areas of “greening” in dryland areas of the Mediterranean, the Sahel, the Middle East and Northern China, as well as greening trends in Mongolia and South America. More recently, a global synthesis from 1982-2007 showed an overall “greening-up” trend over the Sahel belt, Mediterranean basin, China-Mongolia region and the drylands of South America."

Global Greening Is Firm, Drivers Are Mixed - Harvard 2014 http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B31A0515K "Evidence for global greening is converging, asserting an increase in CO2 uptake and biomass of the terrestrial biosphere. Global greening refers to global net increases in the area of green canopy, stocks of carbon, and the duration of the growing season. The growing seasons in general have prolonged while the stock of biomass carbon has increased and the rate of deforestation has decelerated. Evidence for these trends comes from firm empirical data obtained through atmospheric CO2 observations, remote sensing, forest inventories and land use statistics."

Rise in CO2 has 'greened Planet Earth' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36130346 Prof Judith Curry, the former chair of Earth and atmospheric sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, added: "It is inappropriate to dismiss the arguments of the so-called contrarians, since their disagreement with the consensus reflects conflicts of values and a preference for the empirical (i.e. what has been observed) versus the hypothetical (i.e. what is projected from climate models)

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#94
post #81
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you 'retire on software'. I'm a software engineer and I have nowhere near enough savings for retirement, not even close.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29691039 make half a million dollars per year total comp, duh.

Are you going to lobby or start an NGO or something? How can I help? I am currently in a major northern US city running my air conditioner, and tired of meaningless shit.

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you know of any maps showing the relative position of the guest team over the UK over time? Curious to see if there’s a prediction that Scotland becomes a lot nicer weather wise as it is at the northern end of the UK.

It is well known that the Romans had many vineyards in Scotland making wine during the RWP.

[deleted]

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From talking to my (degree-holding) colleagues, they seem to think that everything will be well, and no amount of evidence would convince them otherwise. Felt like I was talking to antivaxxers. The IPCC report suggests first-world citizens reduce their energy footprint by 80% if we are to have even a remote chance of keeping things under control. Yet everybody is now making plans where to travel next when the pandemi…

> Are you sure you want to save this version of humanity? This fatalistic, sneering attitude is the least effective way of discussing climate change with people who don’t yet understand the issue. I think a lot of people don’t realize just how much of a turn-off these attitudes are to people who are on the fence or otherwise doubtful. It’s not helpful.

Might not be helpful, but at least in some cases it is sincere.

Personally, I simply don't think we have the capacity as a species to overcome the challenges of climate change right now. I'd like to be proven wrong and think we should be trying anyway, but veer towards solutions which actually provide another benefit and help with CO2 emissions as a secondary effect - the most obvious example being renewables as a means of securing energy supply sovereignty.

This approach probably won't see us beat even 3 degrees of warming but let's be honest - most people in the western world will adapt to a less convenient life, and we don't care about the pending deaths in Bangladesh and similarly poor countries nearly as much as we like to pretend.

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#97

tongue in cheek uk weather seasons (but close to the truth) https://imgur.com/gallery/1Brt04C I think there should be an extra winter in there after summer begins

In my childhood I remember (perhaps overly- optimistically) having distinct seasons and in particular crisp, snowy winters. The combination of climate change and moving west of the Pennines is really shit.

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#98

I see people talking about weather getting unpredictable. This was predictable, and was predicted: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ . The technical summary is 160 pages and should be required reading for anyone over the age of 13: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6... . The Paris Agreement, for all its problems, tries to keep increase below 1.5 C over pre-industrial. We are locked in for…

No post body was provided.

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#99

I don't have a habit of checking temperature but felt like 15 degree here on Bulgaria. Spent most of the day outside and there were all kinds of insects flying around. Guess the summer is going to suck. Either too hot or too cold.

My bet is this will be the next 2003, after western Canada last year, mainland Europe may well be due for the next roast.

Could also be like 2005 when it snowed heavily in May, then we had never ending rain and floods during the whole summer

Re: New Temperature Records for the UK

#100
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29691039 make half a million dollars per year total comp, duh.

Are you going to lobby or start an NGO or something? How can I help? I am currently in a major northern US city running my air conditioner, and tired of meaningless shit.

Are you replying to the wrong comment or something? I'm not the guy in that article. I was posting that link in jest.
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