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Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

brusselstimes.com

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Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#61

Post by chana_masala »

desine wrote: post #43
petercooper wrote: post #25

Viruses are interesting things. I once enjoyed a case study about an outbreak of common cold on an Antarctic base that only happened after 17 weeks of isolation: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/ (I'm no virologist but given that the common cold didn't seem to be impacted by the severe lockdowns in the UK at all, whereas flu was, I've gotten the - uneducated - feeling the cold is a bit like some S…

They very much are interesting, and that's a pretty wild story. There are people a lot smarter than me, doctors in the field, that think we have some of our fundamental understanding of viruses wrong. I haven't read enough to take a stance that 100+ years of research is incorrect, but I do love hearing alternative hypotheses on a variety of topics. I don't think there's any harm in hearing what others have to say, at…

Century old understandings in science have been repeatedly upended, so I could see it happening in virology too. I have my own theories based on my reading. And I've seen your comments frequently and find your perspective refreshing, could I contact in some way? You can reach me at the email in my profile.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#62

Post by KennyBlanken »

freetinker wrote: post #7
pezzana wrote: post #2

> All staff members preparing to depart to the station had to undergo a PCR test in Belgium two hours before leaving for South Africa, take a PCR test five days after their arrival in Cape Town, where they also had to quarantine for ten days. Another test was required when leaving Cape Town for Antarctica and another PCR test had to be undergone five days after arrival. This is clear evidence that the current paradig…

I’m not so sure; respectfully disagree. This only talks about process stricture, not efficacy or process compliance/lapse. Plausible hypothesis, but needs more data.

Yep. Likely self-supervised isolation/quarantine and someone broke the rules.

That said, omicron is apparently insanely infectious, so it could have been something as simple as a member of the ground crew being inside the plane for a bit to stock or check something.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#63

Post by [deleted] »

bmeski wrote: post #51
makk wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Define normal.

No mandates. No vaccine passbooks or apps. Return jobs to employees lost because of vaccine compliance/rebuild small businesses (If this is somehow possible but the damage is already done). No mask requirements. Covid-19 Vaccines are available and treated in the same way as flu vaccines once FDA approved. Yknow, normal.

[deleted]

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#64

Post by [deleted] »

decebalus1 wrote: post #44
pezzana wrote: post #2

> All staff members preparing to depart to the station had to undergo a PCR test in Belgium two hours before leaving for South Africa, take a PCR test five days after their arrival in Cape Town, where they also had to quarantine for ten days. Another test was required when leaving Cape Town for Antarctica and another PCR test had to be undergone five days after arrival. This is clear evidence that the current paradig…

Right. Because something needs to be airtight 100% successful with 100% compliance and 100% enforcement or nothing at all. As with American politics, there is no gray area ever. I completely disagree with your statement. The goals of the current paradigm of dealing with the pandemic is to minimize the strain on various processes from a public health perspective. Anything moving the needle is effective. That's why gui…

[deleted]

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#65

Post by KennyBlanken »

ssl232 wrote: post #47
jobe_br wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two options: quarantine bubble failure or incubation longer than .. 15 days? Both are possible, though the former is more likely. 5 day intervals for incubation seem too short for 100% safety. I believe omicron has some data points of longer incubation already.

Third option: flawed hypothesis. Swabbing the nose or throat and performing subsequent RT-PCR analysis is not an infallable indicator of whether or not someone is free from the virus SARS-CoV-2 or infected with or likely to become infected with the respiratory disease COVID-19. Before 2020 such tests were typically only used as a part of a diagnosis by a medical professional upon consultation, typically also alongsid…

Nose swabs reveal whether you're shedding the particles and thus infectious. It doesn't matter if you're infected if you're not shedding the virus.

They are also exceptionally reliable. The home test kit I used had a sub-1% false negative rate.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#66

Post by coding123 »

petercooper wrote: post #25

Viruses are interesting things. I once enjoyed a case study about an outbreak of common cold on an Antarctic base that only happened after 17 weeks of isolation: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/ (I'm no virologist but given that the common cold didn't seem to be impacted by the severe lockdowns in the UK at all, whereas flu was, I've gotten the - uneducated - feeling the cold is a bit like some S…

Ebola's going to be the next "fun" one that pops up.

https://www.science.org/content/article/new-ebola-outbreak-l...

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#67

Post by ashtonkem »

Gigachad wrote: post #15
Jabbles wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ineffective I don't think it's clear evidence of this, but you could definitely say it's not 100% effective. Whether it is useful is not something that you cannot determine from this story alone.

The problem is being 99.9% effective just isn't good enough. One person slips through and it's all over. It isn't realistically possible to keep covid out of areas.

That’s really not true though. 99.9% effective might not be good enough for an Antarctic research base, but that’s a pretty unusual circumstance. We’d be thrilled if our current countermeasures against Covid were 99.9% effective; we would’ve ended this in 2020 if that were the case.

If I understand correctly, you can mathematically model how effective countermeasures have to be in order to suppress a virus with a given R0. Given that the measles vaccine is 93% effective and sufficient to suppress one of the most infectious diseases we’ve ever seen (R0 of 12-18), I think 99.9% would be in the overkill category.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#68

Post by Sunspark »

desine wrote: post #46
MobileVet wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strep can lay ‘dormant’ in people for a while. Two months after the original outbreak and lockdown my daughter got strep. We hadn’t seen a soul. Dr said one of us was likely the carrier.

Had your daughter had it before? Once you get strep, you tend to get it semi-frequently. I get it once every couple of years. I always kind of wondered if it's like a viral infection such as cold sores where it lays dormant permanently, and flares up on occasion. However it is bacterial, and not viral, which counts against that idea.

Strep exists on the skin.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#69

Post by VHRanger »

coding123 wrote: post #66
petercooper wrote: post #25

Viruses are interesting things. I once enjoyed a case study about an outbreak of common cold on an Antarctic base that only happened after 17 weeks of isolation: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2130424/ (I'm no virologist but given that the common cold didn't seem to be impacted by the severe lockdowns in the UK at all, whereas flu was, I've gotten the - uneducated - feeling the cold is a bit like some S…

Ebola's going to be the next "fun" one that pops up. https://www.science.org/content/article/new-ebola-outbreak-l...

It would have to change transmission mechanism.

Until then unlikely

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#70

Post by funwares »

gerikson wrote: post #6

TIL Belgium has an Antarctic research station.

Belgium actually had the first winter expedition to the Antarctic in the late 1800s. Although it was mostly Belgian in name only and also a complete disaster, save for a commendable amount of scientific data being collected.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belgian_Antarctic_Expedition

The book "Madhouse at the End of the Earth" by Julian Sancton is a great read for this story of the first humans to spend a sun-less winter in Antarctica.

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