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Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

brusselstimes.com

11–20 of 296 posts

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#11
post #2

> All staff members preparing to depart to the station had to undergo a PCR test in Belgium two hours before leaving for South Africa, take a PCR test five days after their arrival in Cape Town, where they also had to quarantine for ten days. Another test was required when leaving Cape Town for Antarctica and another PCR test had to be undergone five days after arrival. This is clear evidence that the current paradig…

it’s only clear if they can verify 100% compliance

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#12
post #3
post #2

> All staff members preparing to depart to the station had to undergo a PCR test in Belgium two hours before leaving for South Africa, take a PCR test five days after their arrival in Cape Town, where they also had to quarantine for ten days. Another test was required when leaving Cape Town for Antarctica and another PCR test had to be undergone five days after arrival. This is clear evidence that the current paradig…

What are some realistic alternatives?

Going back to normal and stopping the theater.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#13
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not so sure; respectfully disagree. This only talks about process stricture, not efficacy or process compliance/lapse. Plausible hypothesis, but needs more data.

Human error/non-compliance is a thing, to be honest. Although, this can also mean the procedures do not work as well.

Good point. However, one can’t conclude that with any reasonable certainty from the article.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#14
post #2

> All staff members preparing to depart to the station had to undergo a PCR test in Belgium two hours before leaving for South Africa, take a PCR test five days after their arrival in Cape Town, where they also had to quarantine for ten days. Another test was required when leaving Cape Town for Antarctica and another PCR test had to be undergone five days after arrival. This is clear evidence that the current paradig…

It only takes one slip...

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#15
post #4
post #2

> All staff members preparing to depart to the station had to undergo a PCR test in Belgium two hours before leaving for South Africa, take a PCR test five days after their arrival in Cape Town, where they also had to quarantine for ten days. Another test was required when leaving Cape Town for Antarctica and another PCR test had to be undergone five days after arrival. This is clear evidence that the current paradig…

> ineffective I don't think it's clear evidence of this, but you could definitely say it's not 100% effective. Whether it is useful is not something that you cannot determine from this story alone.

The problem is being 99.9% effective just isn't good enough. One person slips through and it's all over. It isn't realistically possible to keep covid out of areas.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#16
post #2

> All staff members preparing to depart to the station had to undergo a PCR test in Belgium two hours before leaving for South Africa, take a PCR test five days after their arrival in Cape Town, where they also had to quarantine for ten days. Another test was required when leaving Cape Town for Antarctica and another PCR test had to be undergone five days after arrival. This is clear evidence that the current paradig…

Two options: quarantine bubble failure or incubation longer than .. 15 days?

Both are possible, though the former is more likely. 5 day intervals for incubation seem too short for 100% safety. I believe omicron has some data points of longer incubation already.

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#17
post #2

> All staff members preparing to depart to the station had to undergo a PCR test in Belgium two hours before leaving for South Africa, take a PCR test five days after their arrival in Cape Town, where they also had to quarantine for ten days. Another test was required when leaving Cape Town for Antarctica and another PCR test had to be undergone five days after arrival. This is clear evidence that the current paradig…

it’s only clear if they can verify 100% compliance

Not even then. If they can verify 100% compliance, we can adjust our estimates about the false negative rate of these tests (which we already know not to be perfect)

(And maybe not even that. There could have been an infection between the tests “when leaving Cape Town for Antarctica” and actual departure)

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#18
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ineffective I don't think it's clear evidence of this, but you could definitely say it's not 100% effective. Whether it is useful is not something that you cannot determine from this story alone.

The problem is being 99.9% effective just isn't good enough. One person slips through and it's all over. It isn't realistically possible to keep covid out of areas.

New Zealand has done a pretty good job over the last two years. Whether the costs outweigh the benefits is a separate question

Re: Belgian scientific base in Antarctica engulfed by Covid despite strict measures

#20
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ineffective I don't think it's clear evidence of this, but you could definitely say it's not 100% effective. Whether it is useful is not something that you cannot determine from this story alone.

The problem is being 99.9% effective just isn't good enough. One person slips through and it's all over. It isn't realistically possible to keep covid out of areas.

It is understood that it's not 100% effective, we enforce these restrictions upon ourselves in part so that we just slow it down and spread it out over time, so that medical centers are not overwhelmed and unable to provide care to those who really it, so that we have time to create better and better therapeutics.
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