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“Play-to-Earn” and Bullshit Jobs

paulbutler.org

391–400 of 700 posts

Re: “Play-to-Earn” and Bullshit Jobs

#391
Though provoking article. The main problem that play-to-earn games have is that they need to rely on external cash-inflows to reward the players. This makes them very close to Ponzi schemes or Casino's. If the moral product is to earn a livable wage in Web3, that is not the way.

Re: “Play-to-Earn” and Bullshit Jobs

#392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bitcoin has a use case for money laundering, tax evasion, evading China's exchange controls, and drugs. That market turned out to be larger than expected.

Now that Monero exists, not really.

The only coin that's actually stable, because it's the only one that has any actual purpose.

Re: “Play-to-Earn” and Bullshit Jobs

#393
post #250

Here's patio11's thread: https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1459682519360491523 I was shocked to see A16z recently investing $150M in Axie Infinity and doubling down on their justification of play-to-earn as a coherent concept, as if it's not fundamentally a pyramid scheme. It's lowered my expectation of what passes for thought leadership in our industry.

Thought leadership smeadership. A16z's goal is to make money, lots of it. Shouldn't confuse its purpose by giving it other goals.

Yes but even an amoral organization could be expected to anticipate damage to their reputation when they're seen to be propping up a sufficiently transparent pyramid scheme, and decide not to cross that line. I'm still not sure they made the right move for their long-term interests, considering there's more reputational damage to come when the pyramid implodes. (They probably won't take financial damage though, as they're likely to sell near the peak.)

Re: “Play-to-Earn” and Bullshit Jobs

#394
post #32

In the late 2000s, as a teenager, I was gifted a Runescape account. This account had level 80+ woodcutting, allowing one to chop magic trees - which would produce the most expensive lumber in the game. It took a staggering number of real hours to achieve this skill level, we're talking several hundred hours minimum. At some point I had realized that there were different sketchy websites that would buy and sell the in…

Nitpicks because this game was my childhood. I totally support your sentiment though. > It took a staggering number of real hours to achieve this skill level * 97 logs (30 minutes) * 293 oaks (1 hr) * 714 willows (2.5 hr) * 19,246 maple (very inefficient compared to willow cutting rate - 60 hour). If you did yews it would be many hundreds of hours. About 70 hours done inefficiently. > What if I wrote a macro Macros w…

Macros are what got me into programming. I wanna write a blog on it if no one else has done it yet but you had different tiers of it in between 2005-2007:

AutoRune: top-tier -- This was the absolute best RuneScape classic bot but you had to pay $15 a month for an auth code to use it, which is extremely expensive for a school-aged kid. One of its killer features was that you could run the game in headless mode with no graphics so your PC would not be overloaded due to running too many expensive Java applet graphics processes.

If I recall correctly it had its own intuitive scripting language. Some of these scripts were extremely coordinated: you could have several accounts mine ore, another account transfer it, and another account to manage smithing it in an orchestrated fashion.

If you were into player-versus-player, RS Classic had this unintended concept of "having catch" on someone based on your player ID on the server. Essentially if your player ID on the server was lower than your opponent's, then in a fight it would be significantly easier to chase them until they were dead. Catching a player took some well timed clicks and coordination. AutoRune (and the other bots I'll talk about) exposed this player ID to you so you could log out and in until you received a player ID that was sufficiently advantageous enough for you.

Even more scary was that it had an autocatcher that made it effectively impossible for another player to escape you in PVP so that you didn't need to learn the proper catching technique.

There were also free to use but less powerful bots like IT-bot (scriptable with Java) and Runebot (IIRC only allowed you to autotrain).

Fatigue and CAPTCHAs defeated by crowd sourcing with Sleepwalker -- To deter bots, RuneScape implemented a concept called "fatigue" where your character would supposedly get tired after harvesting items or gaining a certain number of experience points and you would be forced to use your sleeping bag to rest. When you rested, you would have to solve a CAPTCHA to wake up. I am still amazed with the level of coordination that happened here: someone built a tool called SleepWalker where you would write CAPTCHAs for other people and gain points. Each point you wrote for someone else became a word that you were allowed to have someone complete a CAPTCHA for you. You were also able to pay money to avoid writing CAPTCHAs yourself, and Sleepwalker was smart enough to integrate with whatever bot you were using. Eventually the more sophisticated bots like AutoRune and IT-bot implemented their own OCR so SleepWalker became something only used by people who couldn't afford OCR, but I'm still amazed by the community coordination here.

Now, these bots interacted with the RuneScape world by sending server side commands so you would never need to actually click on anything in the world to watch your character do things. The problem here is that these methods were comparatively easy to detect so Jagex would periodically ban players caught cheating. This is where SCAR comes in.

SCAR = Shit Compared to AutoRune -- SCAR was a less sophisticated but extremely effective botting tool that relied only on clicking colors. You wrote scripts in Pascal (of all things!) to do the tasks you wanted like mine ore or kill chickens and it did this by clicking predefined pixel colors with the timings you specified. To do it properly, it calibrated your in-game compass to align properly so the pixel clicking would work. It also implemented its own timing and color jitter so that the simulated clicks would appear to be from a human and not a bot. There were also scripts that would handle cases where a mod would message you and ask if you were a bot and it would respond with 'noope im not a bot, gtg bye!'.

All the characters I automated with the API-based bots ended up banned, but I'm pretty sure the one that I used SCAR on never got banned. The clicking approach became extensible when RS Classic became RS2, and I'm sure AutoRune continued into the future too but this is where I became too busy with school to keep up with all this.

Anyway, RuneScape automation is near and dear to my heart and got me started in CS so I love talking about this haha.

Re: “Play-to-Earn” and Bullshit Jobs

#395
post #32

In the late 2000s, as a teenager, I was gifted a Runescape account. This account had level 80+ woodcutting, allowing one to chop magic trees - which would produce the most expensive lumber in the game. It took a staggering number of real hours to achieve this skill level, we're talking several hundred hours minimum. At some point I had realized that there were different sketchy websites that would buy and sell the in…

I know a lot of people have fond memories of this kind of thing, but from a designer perspective, is it good that a game is so boring that players are willing to pay real-world money to skip parts of it? Runescape set up a system that was so grind-heavy that players broke server rules and wrote automated scripts to grind for them, and other players gave them money to do that. Because the minute-to-minute gameplay of…

your game should so funny that they cannot give up it, but it is so boring result in they want to pay money for skipping it. this is business model.

Re: “Play-to-Earn” and Bullshit Jobs

#396

The thing I really like about this article is that, at least in my mind, it really helped me clarify what I think of as "Bullshit Jobs". It's not so much "do you consider your job useless", but it's more along the lines of "Is your job set up to fulfill tasks that were, generally, arbitrarily designed by some gatekeeper?" A great example of this is tax departments at large companies that look for tax avoidance strate…

> On one hand, these strategies can save companies many millions of dollars, but on the other, they really produce nothing of value and are just a product of the complexities of a (human designed) tax system Businesses that spend less money on taxes can spend more money on expenses, such as payroll and higher quality materials and land, or it can allow them to sell products/services at a lower price, providing a comp…

Tax avoidance just moves the tax burden around, it doesn't create value.

Tax collection and tax compliance does create value, but spending time specifically figuring out how to pay as little taxes as possible creates no value. It see likely that some level of bullshit jobs are an unavoidable side-effects of value producing activities. The interesting part of the idea comes from thinking about how we can structure those value producing activities to minimize the bullshit side-effects and thus increase economic efficiency.

Taxes are an area with a lot of low hanging fruit, unfortunately Intuit and other tax prep companies spend a lot of money lobbying to maximizing the bullshit jobs side effects of taxation because it makes them more money.

Re: “Play-to-Earn” and Bullshit Jobs

#397
A dutch economist once estimated that about 50% of a modern economy is bullshit, basically just keeping each other busy.

It's made possible because of the naive belief that markets create supply out of demand, and that this mechanism is ruthlessly efficient.

Right now, somebody is "inventing" potato chips flavor #16,333,132. Nobody asked for it, but a whole bunch of people are involved in its creation. Next, the product is pushed, and if not totally disgusting, you might try it. If the push is large and prolonged, you may even make it a regular buy. Even more so when you see lots of other people eating it.

Did this product meet your demand? No. Do you believe its a good use of labor to make this product? No. Your "demand" was fabricated out of aggressively pushing supply.

Are the top 10 songs in the charts the songs most in demand, the market efficiently selecting the best songs, taking into account all recent music produced? No. The songs are pushed. Supply decides, not demand.

Right now, thousands of engineers are working on the next iOS version, adding hundreds of new features. You'll probably use 2 of them. You'll get all 500 features anyway, regardless of demand, as you will definitely buy the next iPhone.

That's the 50% I'm referring to: artificially created demand that really is just marketing and manipulation.

Another way in which markets aren't efficient is a lack of competition. After all, it's every market player's goal to basically exit the arena, not needing to fight for their continued existence. Several sectors have big industry players that effectively have no competition. The same can be true for businesses where locality is a unique benefit. And it applies to local and federal governments, whom have no competition at all. And there's patents, cartels and other ways to escape market forces.

These non-competitors sustain armies of workers with bullshit jobs.

Ultimately, our economic system doesn't care. When you have a paid job, nobody asks questions about whether it has meaning. Your government will like you and so will your family. Bullshit or not. We have build a system that celebrates meaningless consumption and meaningless work.

Re: “Play-to-Earn” and Bullshit Jobs

#398
post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One could also argue that if the developers did that, the market value of the digital item in question would drop. The value that the buyer receives is grounded in the large time investment required to acquire the item in the game. Even though it is completely artificial, it makes the item more scarce and therefore more desirable to other players. I totally agree that the fact that this power is in the hands of the d…

This implies that anything that is scarce or requires labour to obtain automatically becomes desirable and rises in value.

Faux scarcity is a key concept in the crypto ecosystem.

Re: “Play-to-Earn” and Bullshit Jobs

#399
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nitpicks because this game was my childhood. I totally support your sentiment though. > It took a staggering number of real hours to achieve this skill level * 97 logs (30 minutes) * 293 oaks (1 hr) * 714 willows (2.5 hr) * 19,246 maple (very inefficient compared to willow cutting rate - 60 hour). If you did yews it would be many hundreds of hours. About 70 hours done inefficiently. > What if I wrote a macro Macros w…

> Botting in general was the wild west in this game from about 2008 - ~2014. There’s a weird, secret history around Runescape botting that I really hope gets told in full one day. Essentially, the biggest and best botting client from the 2008-2011 era was Powerbot, later rebranded RSBot. It was written and managed mostly by some CS student from the UK, who went by the handle Jacmob, and used some bytecode editing + r…

I think I was banned during that wave in 2011 and only just recently got back into RS.

Back in the day I couldn't be bothered to gather the resources myself.

Now I'm the bot, but somehow I'm (sometimes) happier fishing sharks than being IRL...

Re: “Play-to-Earn” and Bullshit Jobs

#400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what people don't seem to understand about BitCoin. It is cashflow negative, Money has to keep coming in to keep the price up due to paying miners. It is totally fine if you think BTC is better than the USD or Gold for whatever reason. But Bitcoin is still cashflow negative. You have to keep pumping money into it to keep up its value. Where is that money going to come from? Is it coming from Tether? Is it com…

This is addressed in the original white paper. In a world where BTC is valued at 1M USD/coin you’d also expect a decent amount of day to day usage. Miners could still make decent profits based on transaction fees just from confirming blocks even once the Coinbase rewards stop. I’m not saying that’s currently the case, but that is the design. Also if miners are making a profit off let’s say $40k/coin and the price goe…

is the day to day usage of bitcoin currently increasing in proportion to coin price? it seems entirely possible that the price could get very high solely as a speculative investment. in which case, you would still need additional investment money coming in
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