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Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

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Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#271
post #253
post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nuclear is fantastic economics, its just regulated to death. The real effect of suppressing nuclear has been a slower transition to a sustainable carbon economy, and increased power prices limiting innovation and productivity. Solar and wind have benefitted, but its still a minor player, and without a revolutionary new battery tech, and gargantuan infrastructure investment, it simply cant replace a majority of curren…

We must be looking at very different numbers - or what do you mean with regulation, requiring some safety standards? Nowhere nuclear got economic, required massive subsidies - and in the end has been driven by the need for the precious byproducts?

You can tell because for profit(if staterun) companies are building them across the world. France is drawing significant profits from existing nuclear, and constructing new. Nuclear has been ridiculously profitable for most countries which built them, with the sole exception of countries which started building them, then forbid nuclear. Many countries in Asia are building them because its cheaper than coal power. Most countries impose nuclear specific taxes, in addition to long term disposal fees, which exceed the price of production by several times. Sheer state profit. Despite this, the main reason nuclear does not get built in Europe is regulation, the the risk of losing the investment due to changing laws on nuclear. Which has happened several times.

Byproducts, aside from nuclear weapons, which most countries do not have, are a negligible part. Sweden for instance built ample nuclear early, but never built the kind of reactor which is used in nuclear weapon production. Sweden also didnt subsidize it, but rather has been taxing it at an additional 300-500% in addition to long term disposal fees(so little of which actually went to long term disposal they introduced a second free named exactly the same 40 years latter). Despite also discarding the cooling water heat into the ocean completely needlessly, all it took for these plants to be profitable was not forcing them to shut down when public opinion turned. It took a while sure, but plants have been profitable for 30 years now, and could have continued to be so if they hadn't by law been prohibited from upgrading and researching.

Nuclear regulation in most places goes as follows: is nuclear profitable? if yes, increase safety until it stops being so. If technology improves so that the same safety can be achieved using less cost, further improve safety. If this happens while building a new plant, force them to start over. For what that looks like, look to the 3 complete restarts due to previously approved safety measures suddenly being retracted and increased during the construction of the Finnish plant.

Its this idiotic idea that they must guarantee zero percent risk which is the main culprit. Flying kills more people, and more people need power than flight, yet we require far more of nuclear. Many countries built dozens of perfectly safe plants during the 60ties for pennies on the dollar. If we could build those again, you know the ones where less than 0.25% had an serious accident over a 60 year history, and removed the massive taxes, we could have power prices at a fifth of what they are today.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#272
Much of Europe is following in Germanys steps I am afraid.

I can only speak for Sweden. We had for the longest time the most solid energy base with hydro power in the north and nuclear in the south.

Policy has since decades been anti-nuclear though but it really accelerated 2016. Basically nuclear power gets heavy tax and fee penalties while wind gets the reverse treatment.

If you check https://www.svk.se/om-kraftsystemet/kontrollrummet/ you can see the result.

Nuclear and hydro still supply all power - but we now have an erratic additional source of wind power that has such volatility that it can spike its production and reverse in just a day. It's completely uncontrollable and so can't provide a stable base for industry nor homes or offices.

Meanwhile, with nuclear plants now being taken offline, southern Sweden is paying a multiple of higher prices than Northern Sweden.

This is exacerbated by other countries in Europe making similar faulty decisions - notably Germany - meaning that even if Sweden produces energy to export on a good day, prices are high. Northern Sweden is for now safe because there is no bandwidth to transfer the energy produced in an efficient way.

I only hope that the election this year will see policy change to normal again, with a renewed focus on nuclear. Nuclear needs no subsidies, it just needs to not be penalized by inane policies, taxes and bureaucratic nonsense.

During the summer, when less energy is needed, Sweden even had to start its old oil based power plant. The solution is similar in Europe where reliance on natural gas from Russia is becoming normal, in particular for Germany.

In Sweden we have at least come far enough to recognize this as a crisis and the so called environmental party will probably be booted out of the Riksdag come September.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#273
post #51

price of 1MWh on Dec 21 2020: 45€ price of 1MWh on Dec 21 2021: 316€ https://www.wiwo.de/my/unternehmen/energie/knappheitspreise-...

price of 1MWh on Dec 23 2021 in France: >400€ https://www.services-rte.com/en/view-data-published-by-rte/f... Spot markets be spotting, we can play this game all day long.

It's that high in France because Germany is knee deep in gas plants.

So much for a European partner ...

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#274
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being dependent on imported gas seems like an inherent issue of the German energy system.

Heating is largely natural gas based, so it's not substitutive. I don't think Germany should be shutting down its nuclear reactors, but that has nothing to do with Russian gas. (Unless perhaps they started making synthetic methane using the heat of a nuclear reactor, which is not a terrible idea but not something they are currently doing AFAIK.)

To be fair, residential/commercial heating could be entirely electric, and heat pumps have additional benefits over natural gas heating (like being reversible in the summer).

Presumably people would switch if the cost of electricity was low enough for it to be more economical. Decisions that result in the price of electricity staying high provide political leverage to gas producers.

Though, eyeballing the numbers, it really should be very attractive to install heat pumps in the EU despite the high electricity cost. The cost of natural gas is quite high.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#275
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being dependent on imported gas seems like an inherent issue of the German energy system.

Heating is largely natural gas based, so it's not substitutive. I don't think Germany should be shutting down its nuclear reactors, but that has nothing to do with Russian gas. (Unless perhaps they started making synthetic methane using the heat of a nuclear reactor, which is not a terrible idea but not something they are currently doing AFAIK.)

In Sweden natural gas is hardly used yet electricity prices have gone up astronomically compared to last year - daily rates are now around 10 to 20 times what they were last year around the same time. Heating in Sweden is a combination of electric (resistive elements and heat pumps), wood in some form (firewood, pellets, wood chips), some oil and process heat from industry where available. The Swedish equivalent of the German Greens is proudly proclaiming they're the ones who have closed nuclear power plants long before their calculated lifetime was out, leading to an increased need for electricity imports from e.g. Poland (mostly coal-fired plants). Their "green" policy has led to oil-fired power plants which normally only come online in the deep of winter to be fired up in summer to prevent brown-outs.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#276
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Being dependent on imported gas seems like an inherent issue of the German energy system.

Heating is largely natural gas based, so it's not substitutive. I don't think Germany should be shutting down its nuclear reactors, but that has nothing to do with Russian gas. (Unless perhaps they started making synthetic methane using the heat of a nuclear reactor, which is not a terrible idea but not something they are currently doing AFAIK.)

It has to do with gas, because 12% of electricity in Germany is produced by burning natural gas. That's up by 4pp from 2018. That's according to wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Germany

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#277
post #262
post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No not quite, burning fuel for heat locally will always be at least twice as effective as ideal conversion to power, followed by ideal conversion to heat, in practice its closer to three times. Therefore power prices need to fall substantially gas prices before the switch is worth it. That will never happen while producing power from gas or more expensive alternatives. In particular since the gas distribution infrast…

Does your number include electric heat pumps? Germany is warm enough for very modern heat pumps to do well.

Heat pumps change this a bit, doubling the efficiency (assuming its similar to Sweden), but it varies. So in the ideal case, its roughly the same, in practice slightly less, and with costs it gets complicated and dominated by subsidies and existing infrastructure. Heat pumps require nearby reservoirs however, land essentially, which is available in suburbs, but can be quite a challenge in dense cities.

But the real problem is the cost of changing the infrastructure, remember its not just getting power instead of gas, its also switching out every heater from fluid based to power based. Switching stoves from gas to power, etc. Its not only a big investment, but a time consuming and inconvenient one.

Even if power prices dropped to half I would not expect this to be particularly fast, and worse still, historically Germany has subsidized directly(with rebates, taxbreaks, etc) and indirectly(nordstrom2... LNG harbors, etc) the gas prices whenever people complain, or just to prevent complaints.

I guess replacing gas in German households will require both electricity prices dropping to around one third or less, and substantial government support. Or a multi decade power price drop to say one tenth or less.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#278
post #36

I am afraid this thread is going to be heavy on strongly held opinions and very light on facts and figures. In a futile attempt to compensate, here is the history of gross electricity production in Germany [1]. And here is the electricity import/export statistics [2]. [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/Energymi... [2] https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Infografiken/Energie/stroma...

Primary energy consumption looks quite a bit different though: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/g... Also worth noting that "biomass" often gets hidden in the "clean energy" part, but that just means burning something other than oil/coal/gas.

So germans are still buying (some) Russian gas for heat, while shutting down nuclear plants? That just seems wrong.

> biomass" often gets hidden in the "clean energy" part, but that just means burning something other than oil/coal/gas.

That's usually CO2 neutral if it's waste/wood pellets etc. Whether it's "clean" or "sustainable" is a hot topic, but in terms of climate it's a lot better than fossil fuel.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#279
post #261
post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No not quite, burning fuel for heat locally will always be at least twice as effective as ideal conversion to power, followed by ideal conversion to heat, in practice its closer to three times. Therefore power prices need to fall substantially gas prices before the switch is worth it. That will never happen while producing power from gas or more expensive alternatives. In particular since the gas distribution infrast…

> No not quite, burning fuel for heat locally will always be at least twice as effective as ideal conversion to power Except NOT having to heat is even more effective than burning fuel for heating locally. So the move away from gas heating to low-energy buildings is definitely stimulated by higher gas prices. > Same thing for france. I doubt that, since France seem to be actually using their interconnects. Can't comm…

Insulation is exactly as beneficial to gas and power heated homes. It does jack shit or worse for cooking though.

France is self sufficient, but imports when prices are low in order to keep levels high in reservoirs, which further decreases prices over the year.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#280
post #6
post #4

This is insane to me. Nuclear is the best long-term option for ecologically-friendly energy generation. This is absolutely a bad move, and the coal industry has done a great job of demonizing nuclear power.

Germans have always been anti-nuclear. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-nuclear_movement_in_Germa...

The history of twentieth century tells us that Germans have questionable judgement and bad opinions.
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