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Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

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Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#251
post #36

I am afraid this thread is going to be heavy on strongly held opinions and very light on facts and figures. In a futile attempt to compensate, here is the history of gross electricity production in Germany [1]. And here is the electricity import/export statistics [2]. [1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/Energymi... [2] https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Infografiken/Energie/stroma...

It's worth noting that we pay for both, import and export of electricity in Germany. This is due to the failed* energy transition ("Energiewende") into renewable production. We pay for our overproduction on sunny and windy days, because the electricity _has_ to be bought by network providers.

* inefficient and too expensive

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#252
post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Putin was shutting off gas to flex it would been great, but he isn't, what is happening is Russia is not having enough gas even for themselves, if this was just diplomatic strategy, diplomacy would convince him to supply more gas, the real fact is, there is not enough gas in first place, you can do whatever you want, there won't be more gas.

He already did it a few years back.

Citation needed.

Merkel herself said that Russia has fulfilled all her contractual obligations. The ones who shut the gas down are the in between countries (hence why Germany was in favor Nord Stream 2)

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#253
post #249
post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And that thinking is insane to me, long-term best is to have renewables and not pollute - nuclear is no alternative but just another bad with too many problems, bad economics, and waste produced.

Nuclear is fantastic economics, its just regulated to death. The real effect of suppressing nuclear has been a slower transition to a sustainable carbon economy, and increased power prices limiting innovation and productivity. Solar and wind have benefitted, but its still a minor player, and without a revolutionary new battery tech, and gargantuan infrastructure investment, it simply cant replace a majority of curren…

We must be looking at very different numbers - or what do you mean with regulation, requiring some safety standards?

Nowhere nuclear got economic, required massive subsidies - and in the end has been driven by the need for the precious byproducts?

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#254
post #234
post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany would have problems if not for French nuclear, and a great many, rather expensive, gas power plants. For exactly how much, just look at what has happened to the UK as they left the EU wide powersharing agreements. Its also worth nothing that the rising power prices have largely prevented germany from moving away from using gas to for stoves and heating, which is a huge part of their total CO2, and pollution o…

> Germany would have problems if not for French nuclear You could say that pretty much about any country in the European synchronous grid. Everyone needs everyone else. > and a great many, rather expensive, gas power plants The gas plants are actually quite cheap. It's the gas that's expensive. > Its also worth nothing that the rising power prices have largely prevented germany from moving away from using gas to for…

No not quite, burning fuel for heat locally will always be at least twice as effective as ideal conversion to power, followed by ideal conversion to heat, in practice its closer to three times. Therefore power prices need to fall substantially gas prices before the switch is worth it. That will never happen while producing power from gas or more expensive alternatives. In particular since the gas distribution infrastructure is in place and effectively subsidized/on a different budget.

But if they produced nuclear at the price they used to be able to in Germany, before regulations and investment insecurity drove up the price, buying gas just could not compete.

Sweden, notably getting half its power from nuclear, does not need anyone else. Same thing for france.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#255
post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But this is an issue of Russia putting the squeeze on gas prices, not an inherent issue of the German energy system.

Being dependent on imported gas seems like an inherent issue of the German energy system.

Heating is largely natural gas based, so it's not substitutive. I don't think Germany should be shutting down its nuclear reactors, but that has nothing to do with Russian gas. (Unless perhaps they started making synthetic methane using the heat of a nuclear reactor, which is not a terrible idea but not something they are currently doing AFAIK.)

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#256
post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And you can't either decide when people turn on their washing machine. Not completely, but you can make electricity almost free at certain times of day to encourage shifting usage. Although there is a natural limit to this, since people have to be home to do laundry! (Also electric driers are the real culprit, they use an obscene amount of electricity! I am not sure if Germany is big on electric dryers or not thoug…

Power is far to abstract and far to cheap for people to make even the slightest adjustment to their habits. After all, lets say you knew that making your morning coffe between 07-08 cost 10 cents more than doing so an hour earlier or later, would you get up earlier, or go to work latter? And in 1 cent is more realistic.

Sure, but again the example was washing clothes, and clothes dryers use a LOT of energy.

Holy crap, doing the math a US style dryer would cost ~1.50 in electricity in Germany to dry one load of clothing.

Sources: https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/Germany/electricity_price... https://www.thespruce.com/how-much-does-it-cost-to-run-an-el...

So, like, you know, yeah. My dryer has a delay start function on it, if late night prices are 1/2 peak, then I'd save 75 cents a load. Let's say 3 days a week of laundry, $9 a month in savings.

Again, my dryer already does this, it isn't new tech, it is just nudging me to make use of the existing button that is already there!

US electricity prices are so low, eh, not really worth it for the state I live in.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#257

The nuclear issue is fascinating to watch unfold, over the years. I didn't expect the rational pro-nuclear to be almost as religious as their opponents. Which makes them also refuse to engage in debate. So, here is one of the thoughts that crossed my mind (and I am well aware there are counter arguments to it ). With its high density of energy and perceived higher potential to harm its surrounding environment, nuclea…

> It is not obvious that nuclear energy can be a widespread, long term alternative for most of the world economies. This problem is also known as nuclear proliferation and, as far as I know, is known to people building nuclear reactors. Small nuclear reactors takes them in account: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_modular_reactor#Nuclear_... > ; nuclear smuggling is also monitored: https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/…

Thanks for the answer ! I'll continue the debate because I think it's worth exploring.

The problem is effectively nuclear proliferation. And in my opinion the two links you provided are embryos of solution.

In the future, it will be legitimate for any medium size city in a developping country to have its own nuclear reactor. At that point the whole procurement process becomes a matter of national security for every neighboring country. Like who is deciding which design is better ? Who gets to pick the winning offer ?

For exemple let's say Germany propose a safer design to a small country with the one time refuel feature, but Turkey propose another design and the buying country has better relationship with Turkey. What standing do you have to make them pick what you deem the better design ? The only recourse is to extend the legal framework and coercition power we use for arm sales. Same regarding nuclear material smuggling.

Except those framework work at the moment because, few country have any use for nuclear material and even fewer want to make a go at it. Once it becomes business as usual to trade nuclear material, it will simply exhaust the monitoring capacity of any international framework. ( At least that's my opinion )

As for the second part of the argument: >> Consider this bad metaphor: as we are writing more and more software, some of them are increasingly critical to users, therefore, we invest in different levels of guaranteeing software is working as intended (e.g. formal methods, etc.).

The question is who the we is ? Energy plant maintenance is closer to server farm maintenance than software building. To twist your metaphor, if many countries were to handle the data infrastructure their economy depend on, they would collapse. That's the crux of the issue, and one of the subliminal teaching the public got from Fukushima. If Japan, the country of the famed six sigma, made a serie of decisions that led to an accident, chances are it's bound to happen to most other (developping ) countries, given long enough time. And I am intentionally not delving into the specifics of those decisions.

With these two sides of the issue in mind, it feels unreasonnable that so many commenters on the web at large are rooting for Germany to fail in the nuclear free direction.

Edit: >> Unpopular opinion: I do not think it is possible to get rid of the inherent risk of nuclear proliferation, even without building nuclear reactors in non-wealthy countries.

I just wanted to add that I commend you for that (blunt) sentence and it really should be part of the standard issues discussed when talking about nuclear.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#258
post #88
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Germany intends to take all coal-fired generation offline by 2038 Good if they actually mean it maybe? > leading to a likely increase in renewable-power assets in the long term... Yet in the short term, coal is helping to bridge the supply gap. This just seems asinine. But what do I know... Is there something impassably / chronically dangerous about nuclear power or is it just public fear that pushes us away from i…

First of all, the new German government adjusted the phase-out of coal power to be as close as possible to 2030. 2038 was more a bad compromise by the previous government. And yes, nuclear power can be dangerous as Chernobyl and Fukushima have shown. Those dangers could probably be addressed by new reactors, but those are very expensive. The big problem are the existing old reactors. They are not as safe and require…

The old reactors were intentionally unfunded for years to make them so expensive that it looked better to decommission them.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#259
post #195

It is fascinating to see how Germany is shutting down nuclear and encouraging natural gas (while still using lignite, of all things, phasing it out only slowly), while the Netherlands is starting to reduce its use of gas and investigating building new nuclear plants.

One German bets on nuclear while another German bets against nuclear. Time will tell which one was wise (maybe both?).

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#260
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have sources to back these claims? I'd imagine that somewhere there is always enough wind and sun in Europe.

Ummm, Europe is close enough together that night falls over the whole continent before it rises again. So no there's not always sun somewhere in Europe.

Did they mean to say empire? :P
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