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Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

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Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#231

Post by estaseuropano »

BenoitP wrote: post #106
Dunedan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have sources to back these claims? I'd imagine that somewhere there is always enough wind and sun in Europe.

> I'd imagine that somewhere there is always enough wind and sun in Europe. * wind: wind power production scales with the cube of the wind speed [1], so actual production only occurs about 25% of the time [2]. Also huge areas produce at the same time: the size of the average depression [3] can often be as large as the continent. * sun: solar panels don't produce at night. I don't think I need to source that claim. Cl…

Cloud is not really such a problematic factor:

https://scijinks.gov/solar-energy-and-clouds/

And the nice thing about nights is that they are quite predictable. So not a very difficult problem to solve.

Tesla power wall (I'd argue overpriced...): $10k [1]

Cost of an average nuclear plant today: $20bn [2] (+operating costs)

So you could buy and install 2Mio powerwalls for thr price of one nuclear plant. How many powerwalls (or more cost-effective solutions) would you need to balance the demand vs availability of electricity at night?

1. https://solarmetric.com/learn/tesla-powerwall-review-costs-s...

2. https://thebulletin.org/2019/06/why-nuclear-power-plants-cos...

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#232

Post by sitkack »

AstralStorm wrote: post #228
sitkack wrote: post #110

Convert EVs to have 10kw+ of grid intertied inverters. Build GWhr capacity batteries at the old nuclear facilities. Those facilities should at least be kept in warm standby. Machines switched off will rot and the whole steam and electricity aspect of a nuke plant is the same regardless of where the steam comes from. Sad, but we should work with what we have.

And how will you drive the discharged car in the morning? It's a non-starter proposition.

The car needs to be at 100% to get to work?

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#234

Post by jhgb »

midjji wrote: post #225
jhgb wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Germany has the same electricity mix as Germany and it has extremely good SAIDI index compared to all other countries ( https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-electric... ). I guess those Germans are just insanely competent, then.

Germany would have problems if not for French nuclear, and a great many, rather expensive, gas power plants. For exactly how much, just look at what has happened to the UK as they left the EU wide powersharing agreements. Its also worth nothing that the rising power prices have largely prevented germany from moving away from using gas to for stoves and heating, which is a huge part of their total CO2, and pollution o…

> Germany would have problems if not for French nuclear

You could say that pretty much about any country in the European synchronous grid. Everyone needs everyone else.

> and a great many, rather expensive, gas power plants

The gas plants are actually quite cheap. It's the gas that's expensive.

> Its also worth nothing that the rising power prices have largely prevented germany from moving away from using gas to for stoves and heating

That statement makes no sense to me. Rising power prices are definitely connected to rising gas prices, which don't prevent people from moving away from using gas for stoves and heating but rather motivate them to do just that.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#235

Post by sitkack »

nradov wrote: post #207
sitkack wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Nissan Leafs alone (450k) there is over 10GWhr of battery capacity. Grid scale batteries are just a capital problem. No breakthroughs necessary.

There is no excess battery manufacturing capacity available. It is constrained by both facilities and raw materials. Capacity will increase but at a slow rate. More capital can't solve that problem, it's like pushing on a string.

This is exactly how capital works. We can make more battery factories.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#236

Post by lambdasquirrel »

BenoitP wrote: post #152
octodog wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you reach that conclusion?

1. There is very little energy storage 2. Sun and wind only produce a fraction of the time (40% [1] and 25% [2] respectively, and 7.5% (= 8.94/(63.2+56)) of installed capacity this very second [3]) 3. Production capacity without sun and wind Germany's mix only work because of neighbouring countries. And their humongous amounts of still existing coal and gas. [1] https://assets.greentechmedia.com/assets/content/cache/…

Sure but carbon is carbon. If they are able to get that much more of their overall power output from renewable, that's carbon not going into the air.

The problem with the current generation of nuclear is that it's expensive to build, and a lot of the older reactors are, well, old. If it's possible to get the same emissions reduction by building out lots and lots of renewable, instead of spending that money on nuclear, that's understandable for a country that can't just print money.

There will eventually be some limit to that strategy (i.e. how do you meet supply at night) and we'll have to see how the next-gen energy storage and nuclear pan out.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#237

Post by cwp »

estaseuropano wrote: post #212
barney54 wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

6. Wholesale electricity rates have increased from 50 Euros/mwh to 250 Euros/mwh over the course of the last year. This isn't about averages. It's about meeting demand, which is especially important during the winter heating season.

But this is an issue of Russia putting the squeeze on gas prices, not an inherent issue of the German energy system.

Being dependent on imported gas seems like an inherent issue of the German energy system.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#238

Post by estaseuropano »

tomp wrote: post #201
barney54 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Currently (20:56 UTC) there is no sun shining in Europe. As for wind, in the UK (it's the country where I know where to find the real-time data easily), wind is only producing about 1/3 of its capacity--about 7GW of 24GW capacity. https://www.energydashboard.co.uk/live Overall renewables are generating about 1/4 of total generation.

How much of that wind power is actually produced within the UK vs. on in the surrounding sea? Point being, most EU countries don't have as much sea to use for wind, so have much lower wind power generation potential.

In simplified terms, most EU countries have either ample sun (Mediterranean area), wind and ocean (north, west ) or wind and space (Poland & neighbors). Most also have a coast, mountains or both so some hydro potential. Even Luxembourg managed to find thermal power for heating.

With wind turbines improving steadily and available in different sizes there is also no big barrier to having them interspersed. Germany or the Netherlands are in large parts densely populated but still manage to put up wind turbines everywhere.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#239

Post by midjji »

RaitoBezarius wrote: post #133
king_phil wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One important thing to notice is that uranium is a finite non-renewable resource. The Red Book says there are about 3.3 million tons that are extractable for a price of 130 USD/ton. In 2017 the total uranium production was 60.000 tons. Thats about 55 years of uranium left at the current production rate. The Red Book assumes there are another 2.1 million tons likely to exist from geological data, but not found yet and…

FWIW, according to your own links. > Uranium-235 is a finite non-renewable resource.[1][3] > As of 2017, identified uranium reserves recoverable at US$130/kg were 6.14 million tons (compared to 5.72 million tons in 2015). At the rate of consumption in 2017, these reserves are sufficient for slightly over 130 years of supply. The identified reserves as of 2017 recoverable at US$260/kg are 7.99 million tons (compared t…

I think you are missing the important part. Lowballing it, a typical 50 year old reactor produces about 10^7 megawatthours or 10^6$ in power per kilo of uranium. And that actually leaves most of the fissile unused. So... How much uranium can be extracted at a reasonable fuel price like 10% of the end user price? i.e. about 10^5$ per kilo?

Its silly to consider availability at 0.03% of the end product price.

Re: Germany is closing half of its reactors before the end of the year

#240

Post by nradov »

sitkack wrote: post #235
nradov wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no excess battery manufacturing capacity available. It is constrained by both facilities and raw materials. Capacity will increase but at a slow rate. More capital can't solve that problem, it's like pushing on a string.

This is exactly how capital works. We can make more battery factories.

Eventually yes, but that will take many years. It won't do anything to prevent power shortages in Germany over the next 5 years or so. I don't think you understand how long it takes to ramp up production across the entire supply chain, and that allocating more capital won't significantly accelerate timelines.
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