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India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

science.org

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Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#131

Post by addsidewalk »

zpeti wrote: post #48

Global population will basically top out at 9-10bn. I look forward to the problems we will face then, and the apocalyptic narratives the media will invent about this new problem. Here's my shot at a few: - Even with better quality of life its going to be hard to make people who are over 70 work productively. But without children less and less people will need to take care of this large old age group. And they will ne…

I predict that commercial profit will dry up as ML ends consumer media creation, re-shoring via high tech manufacturing implodes shipping and retail as on demand production rises to combat the environmental destruction of factories on 24/7.

20-30 year olds now will begin to call the shots politically in 10+, pushing GenX aside where they belong. GenX as a group is pre-info economy and sycophants to inheritance and will have few answers.

20-30 something’s see no future for themselves in this system, and are currently normalizing their platform via the internet.

As it spends its time now making itself irrelevant to the kids, progress elsewhere will give them alternatives and once in power, having spent their lives discussing each other’s inherent value collectively all their lives, they’ll finally just change the fucking rules and police the violent as usual.

Artists can grow flowers to make paint and dig clay out of the ground. We will accept human expression must exist without the industrial convenience applied to all contexts or we risk the species.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#132

Post by gopalv »

arkj wrote: post #104

> But religion is a small factor in fertility today, Muttreja says. “Hindus in Uttar Pradesh, for example, have a much higher fertility than Muslims in Kerala. There is no Hindu fertility or Muslim fertility.” This is really strange he could have compared fertility rate of Muslims vs Hindus in Utter Pradeep and the same in Kerala. Instead he compares Muslims in Kerala vs Hindus in Utter Pranesh. Kerala is the least p…

> is the least poor and most educated state

I think this is the opposite of a "corrected for X factor" we usually see in studies - this is suggesting that economic situation is a bigger factor in fertility than religious practices.

That should be a "duh", but having more resources resulting in fewer kids is the opposite of the malthusian hypothesis that this is limited by resources/mortality & is driven by personal choice to have kids (and kids do better when parents explicitly choose to have them).

They're saying it is a small factor, not that it does not influence it, because if you correct for economic climate, there are definite differences that you can measure, because personal choice is definitely influenced by how many kids your social circle have.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#133

Post by hersko »

cute_boi wrote: post #97

doesn't matter to be honest. We are already overpopulated and those who says it isn't just doesn't know how many people live under poverty and are simply privileged. I understand if we manage resources properly we have very high carrying capacity but it is not pragmatic to solve all those problems. Human greed, corruption has no bounds and will always hinder and there is no solution, is there? Rules, laws are general…

I disagree with just about everything you said. "We are already overpopulated and those who says it isn't just doesn't know how many people live under poverty and are simply privileged." This makes no sense. As the global population has grown, less people live in extreme poverty [1].

Your entire comment is basically saying life is hard so people should not be born? This is absolutely the best time to ever be alive in history.

"One person can manage hundreds of people." Have you ever been to a nursing home? This seems insanely optimistic.

[1]https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#134

Post by lotsofpulp »

gopalv wrote: post #132
arkj wrote: post #104

> But religion is a small factor in fertility today, Muttreja says. “Hindus in Uttar Pradesh, for example, have a much higher fertility than Muslims in Kerala. There is no Hindu fertility or Muslim fertility.” This is really strange he could have compared fertility rate of Muslims vs Hindus in Utter Pradeep and the same in Kerala. Instead he compares Muslims in Kerala vs Hindus in Utter Pranesh. Kerala is the least p…

> is the least poor and most educated state I think this is the opposite of a "corrected for X factor" we usually see in studies - this is suggesting that economic situation is a bigger factor in fertility than religious practices. That should be a "duh", but having more resources resulting in fewer kids is the opposite of the malthusian hypothesis that this is limited by resources/mortality & is driven by personal c…

I am of the opinion that high birthrates are almost entirely a function of women’s financial independence. Childbirth/breastfeeding is such a costly experience for most women that I doubt many would opt for it more than 2 or 3 times if they had an option by not being dependent on men and/or access to easy and effective birth control.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#135

Post by ElectronShak »

nynx wrote: post #125
ElectronShak wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So much trust in mortals.....nah, I'll pass

I'm not sure what else you could trust in. Even if a christian god exists, the bible was written by humans, copied over and over by humans, and translated by humans.

"We account the Scriptures of God to be the most sublime philosophy. I find more sure marks of authenticity in the Bible than in any profane history whatever."

-Isaac Newton

"Almighty God, Who hast created man in Thine own image, and made him a living soul that he might seek after Thee, and have dominion over Thy creatures, teach us to study the works of Thy hands, that we may subdue the earth to our use, and strengthen the reason for Thy service"

-James Clerk Maxwell

Two, really great minds, on whose work we depend on daily

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#136

Post by hersko »

bhouston wrote: post #71
sgt101 wrote: post #63

I wonder what a world of 2bn and falling will look like in 250 years time?

In the 1960s we looked ahead and worried about the population bomb, what would happened with unfettered population growth: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/book-incited-world... Those worst case scenarios didn't end up happening because of changes that occurred. Now we are looking ahead and seeing the opposite. That will motivate change as well -- but we need to have change.

"That motivated change and things adjusted and we avoided the worst outcomes." or the book was just wildly wrong about its predictions.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#137

Post by rmk »

zpeti wrote: post #48

Global population will basically top out at 9-10bn. I look forward to the problems we will face then, and the apocalyptic narratives the media will invent about this new problem. Here's my shot at a few: - Even with better quality of life its going to be hard to make people who are over 70 work productively. But without children less and less people will need to take care of this large old age group. And they will ne…

Unless there are more pandemics and wars that intervene. This pandemic has killed an estimated 10-12 million people, according to the Economist. I think we are perhaps 80% of the way to an endemic with successive mutations becoming less and less lethal, so perhaps the true death toll is in the 15-20 million range. Any large scale war between nation-states can have a pretty high death toll if things escalate out of control. How much could that be? And how would that affect future population growth?

This is without taking into account decreasing sperm counts of men in developed countries and excess deaths due to air pollution in developing countries.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#138

Post by nynx »

ElectronShak wrote: post #135
nynx wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure what else you could trust in. Even if a christian god exists, the bible was written by humans, copied over and over by humans, and translated by humans.

"We account the Scriptures of God to be the most sublime philosophy. I find more sure marks of authenticity in the Bible than in any profane history whatever." -Isaac Newton "Almighty God, Who hast created man in Thine own image, and made him a living soul that he might seek after Thee, and have dominion over Thy creatures, teach us to study the works of Thy hands, that we may subdue the earth to our use, and strengt…

This isn’t really convincing. Newton and Maxwell were incredibly important, but they also lived quite a while ago. Religion has a different role in society these days.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#139

Post by nepeckman »

jeofken wrote: post #115

If economic prosperity results in 2 kids per woman, would evolution not favour genes that make it unlike a family is economically prosperous? Having 6 kids with different baby mamas and being an absent father is evolutionary success

Having children with multiple partners has always been and will always be the quickest way to spread genetic material. That is true regardless if women are having 2 kids or 5. Speculating that lower birth rates will somehow increase absentee fathers is baseless, that evolutionary pressure has been present since before we were human.
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