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India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

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Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is there a need to a sustainable population rate? At some point yes we do. > There are about 8 billion humans on the planet. We can sustain a sub replacement birthrate for generations. For sure. But at some point there won't be enough humans to run an advanced society. > here is a good chance we can sustain it for long enough to solve aging; or at least significantly push back the ~100 year limit to human life. Onc…

> For sure. But at some point there won't be enough humans to run an advanced society. How can we acknowledge that we need a lot of people to run the sort of society we ended up with today without also reasoning that the more advanced society we might achieve in 100 years might need a lot more people? There's nothing special about 10 billion people. People have been throwing out numbers as "overpopulation tipping poi…

Humans are resources in a general sense. More humans means more resources which you can throw at various challenges, problems. So you are right. More humans has benefits.

But unfettered growth isn't sustainable, this has been proved again and again. So what we need is controlled growth or at least sustainable levels. Right now we are switching into a decrease which will be very jarring and not sustainable.

We've never truly has controlled population growth, we just had unfettered growth, which now has slowed down into a decrease. What is next is for us to increase it again and then have control over this. It is basically getting us to the next level of human development.

We just have to be careful about those that want to exercise differential growth/decrease rates based on people's memberships in ideological, religious or racial groups.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#92
post #59

Indian fertility rate also varies by state. Poor states 2+ and rich prosperous states under 2. https://twitter.com/indiainpixels/status/1464197969016614915

The major states with higher fertility rates have a population of 330 million, roughly 1/4th of India's population. Uttar Pradesh: 200 million, Bihar: 100 million, Jharkhand: 30 million. Uttar Pradesh itself is roughly as populous as Nigeria or Bangladesh.

It's notable that most areas of the country are below replacement rates of fertility, which is around 2.2 children per woman.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#93
> the first national family planning program

An odd euphemism for a program that, in practice, involved forced sterilizations and eugenics: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-30040790

According to Vox: "In 1975, Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi ordered the declaration of a national emergency. She seized dictatorial powers, imprisoned her political rivals, and embarked, with the help of her son Sanjay, on a mass, compulsory sterilization program that registers as one of the most disturbing and vast human rights violations in the country’s modern history." Source: https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/future-perfect/2019/6/5/186...

Of course, as the OP notes, America is partly to blame. The exact quote from Johnson was...a bit more direct:

> When an adviser asked the president if he wanted to promise [Indira] Gandhi more food aid during her visit, he exploded: “Are you out of your fucking mind? … I’m not going to piss away foreign aid in nations where they refuse to deal with their own population problems.”

Source: https://qz.com/india/1414774/the-legacy-of-indias-quest-to-s...

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#94
post #52

I wish the US had some of the options for male sterilization/contraception that are available in India. I've asked my doctor for years about some of the options available in other countries and am always given a blank stare of ignorance.

What about vasectomies? They seem to be widely known

These can be difficult to get for younger, childless men. Even younger men (<40) with children receive push back from physicians in getting the procedure because it can be difficult to reverse.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#95
post #48

Global population will basically top out at 9-10bn. I look forward to the problems we will face then, and the apocalyptic narratives the media will invent about this new problem. Here's my shot at a few: - Even with better quality of life its going to be hard to make people who are over 70 work productively. But without children less and less people will need to take care of this large old age group. And they will ne…

Agreed.

Think about the fact that the result of a low birth-rate with better medical tech keeping older people from dying when they otherwise would have. The result will be a far higher percentage of voters in democracies will be beneficiaries of the work of people younger than them. They will increasingly vote to expand the benefits they receive, at the expense of the younger folks who have to pay higher taxes to fund them.

Perhaps one of the most distinct, and deliberately obfuscated, characteristics of COVID is its steep risk stratification by age. According to the US CDC data here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics Roughly 94% of all COVID deaths were in people age 50 and up. 28.2% of deaths were in people over the age of 85, 7 years past the average US life expectancy (for men). If you look at the response to COVID in western nations, you can see that the cost/benefit analysis wasn't being evaluated in the context of the vast majority of people dying (and therefore benefiting) were past retirement age, and the vast majority of people bearing the cost of these policies were younger, lower risk people who were put out of work. The government programs that used debt-financed payments to alleviate these issues for the young generated debt that, again, will hurt the younger generations far more than the older.

Even before covid, the USA has universal health care for people over 65, but not for younger people or kids in working class families who aren't broke enough to qualify for Medicaid. I'm 40, so I'm no spring chicken, but western democracies routinely fuck over young people to help the old. It's going to get far worse until it hits an unsustainable level.

I've paid Social Security and Medicare taxes for 25 years, since my first paycheck, and it's not likely I'll ever receive anything from these programs based on current projections.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nah - that's more of a system of control. You can definitely have a poor country where people are not slaves to mortgages. It's called building your own house. Many countries allow that.

I'm not talking about mortgages though... Consider healthcare, usually older people need it more than younger people. If you have a higher proportion of older people in a population compared to younger people, you have a larger proportion of the associated costs being carried by a smaller proportion of the population, this means decreasing healthcare quality, increasing the pool of people paying in by increasing reti…

Mortgages are the number one cost associated with "working til you are very old".

By far in poor countries healthcare is much more affordable than in rich countries. I think one of the main outcomes of rich countries is just increased costs for everything.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#97
doesn't matter to be honest. We are already overpopulated and those who says it isn't just doesn't know how many people live under poverty and are simply privileged. I understand if we manage resources properly we have very high carrying capacity but it is not pragmatic to solve all those problems. Human greed, corruption has no bounds and will always hinder and there is no solution, is there? Rules, laws are generally made by elites even in democracy. Further, Nature makes us inherently greedy (selfish genes perhaps?) and many of us can't deny it, can we?

I think people like Elon always says declining fertility is huge problem but i simply don't see it as a problem. People like him will never suffer due to money problems and will live luxurious life. But only people working 996 realize how much exploited we are. And old age is not that big deal because of technology. One person can manage hundreds of people. We can scale a lot.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#98
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I predict these issues will cause bigger problems than population expansion ever did. I think that unfettered population growth would have caused massive issues -- you could say that global warming is one of its legacies. But there will be a whole host of new issues as we face this new challenge of moving towards sustainable fertility. I suspect we will see a lot of government intervention with incentives towards l…

Many European countries have extremely generous benefits for raising children, but it has been broadly ineffective at raising birth rates - with the possible exception of the Czech Republic. I agree though that governments are going to try, and they may find a way to do it. There was a good episode of The Weeds podcast, "Baby making vibes," which talked about this. Some of it is focused on the American political lens…

[deleted]

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#99
post #17

My "modest proposal" for humane population reduction is: every individual is born with the right to have one child. A couple then, can have two children, which is below the natural replacement rate of 2.1 leading to a gradual reduction in human population naturally. People who don't want to have kids or can't for whatever reason could sell their right to others who want to have more than their normal allotment while…

I hope by "modest proposal" you mean "satirical take meant to show how awful people are being", which is the whole point of the original modest proposal. The big issue isn't the number of people, but the amount of energy and resources they require. The carbon emissions per 1000 people in India is 0.922 metric tons a year. For the United States that number is 19.86 metric tons a year. That's a difference of over 21 ti…

True. My modest proposal is that we increase population at least to 100 billion (= 100 000 000 000) - or even more!

Number of people does not matter.

Re: India defuses its population bomb: fertility falls to two children per woman

#100
"Be fruitful and increase in number; fill the earth and subdue it. Rule over the fish in the sea and the birds in the sky and over every living creature that moves on the ground" [1]

From the above portion of scripture, I wonder why we humans, are so concerned about population growth. Children are a blessing from God, have as many as you'd like.

1. https://biblehub.com/genesis/1-28.htm

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