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Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

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Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#321

Post by qwytw »

fxleach wrote: post #301
qwytw wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What rational reason would Russia have to invade the Baltic States (or even for example Poland)? Even in best case scenario if the west does not directly intervene, they would get an additional few million people almost all of whom absolutely don't want to live in Russia and whom Russia could barely afford to police and a lot of additional economic sanctions. Also we're totally ignoring the internal political fallout…

They already have and the rest of the world just turned away, look at Crimea.

Crimea is in no way comparable to the Baltic States. It has a Russian speaking majority, while the referendum they staged there was likely falsified to an extent, most of the people living there did not really support the Ukrainian state and weren't particularly opposed to it Crimea being a part of Russia. In 2014 Ukraine was basically a failed state, economically and politically. At the time the average income in Russia was several times as large as in Ukraine (they are almost even now).

Geopolitically it made sense for the US and the West to largely ignore it. Due to their military presence there no one could argue that it wasn't Russia sphere of influence anyway. It was a small price to pay for ensuring that the the rest of Ukraine would shift it's alignment from Russia to EU/NATO (not having a Russian fleet stationed in one of your ports would likely make this move easier).

None of this in any way applies to the Baltic States.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#322

Post by danlugo92 »

b112 wrote: post #315
danlugo92 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only good outcome for the whole world is Putin and allies being ousted out of power and replaced by actual non-warmonger democrats. Imagine a future with Russia in the EU, best timeline. Nobody wants nuclear war, maybe some kind of super-sanctions would be the only recourse for the west, cut them off everything, and I mean everything.

And how do you enforce this? Another Cuba, 1960s style stand off?

Cuba is not cut off from "everything", though their massive media campaign has made it appear so.

There's flights from the US to Cuba now.

You could say, ban any airline that flights to Russia from flying into EU/US, heck, do it on an airplane basis to avoid shell companies and such. Any airplane that touches Russian soil, banned from ever entering any US/EU airspace/soil ever again.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#323

Post by danlugo92 »

newjersey wrote: post #69
danlugo92 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only good outcome for the whole world is Putin and allies being ousted out of power and replaced by actual non-warmonger democrats. Imagine a future with Russia in the EU, best timeline. Nobody wants nuclear war, maybe some kind of super-sanctions would be the only recourse for the west, cut them off everything, and I mean everything.

> The only good outcome for the whole world is Putin and allies being ousted out of power and replaced by actual non-warmonger democrats. I don't actually know anything about Russia or Europe or politics in general first hand. However, from listening to a few episodes of the Economist podcast, my impression has been that Putin is stuck. He can't quit because even though he might be above being punished for his crimes…

Yeah the gas thing is problematic.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#324

Post by tata71 »

qwytw wrote: post #302
retrac wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wars usually seem rational to the people starting them. Conceivably attainable goals for short- or medium- term political purposes. But war has a way of escalating, dragging the participants along to a fate none of them really control. As a hypothetical -- Russia does invade Ukraine and the Western forces offer substantial but indirect military support. Russia strikes at a supporting NATO military installation just m…

Japan was already fighting a massive war in China, after the US oil embargo Japan basically had no choice (besides a completely changing their geopolitical goals) they had to invade Indonesia and other oil rich European colonies in the pacific which would likely result in a war with the US, so yes, they choose relatively rational option of attacking first hoping if not to knock out US out of the Pacific but at least…

> if they wanted to continue their imperialistic expansion

Always the first misstep.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#325

Post by jacquesm »

bingohbangoh wrote: post #293
qwytw wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, currently Americans seems to be only stationed in Poland (while Germans are mainly in Lithuania, Canadians in Latvia and the UK in Estonia) but I don't see how that fundamentally changes anything.

I was just in Kaunas and ran into American soldiers -- or what I thought were American soldiers? We chatted and they implied this.

I know there are some Canadians stationed in that region.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#326

Post by kingkawn »

refurb wrote: post #193
kingkawn wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vietnam is a better example here. They are continually afraid of Chinese invasion based on nearly a millenia of war preceding the wars with western colonizers. They are at huge disadvantage economically and technologically to China. So every single high school student and college student is trained in guerilla warfare tactics, the entire country is outfitted with secret military installations, and they are ready to r…

Nope. Military training as a part of the basic high school curriculum went away a whole ago. Vietnamese youth are about making money now. I don’t disagree the govt is prepared to counter China but they are also investing in a lot of other things.

I have been to Vietnam right before the pandemic and witnessed with my own eyes active training of high school and college students using mock AK-47s. The cultural focus of the students of course is their economic future in peace time, but the foundation of that peace for a small and otherwise vulnerable nation is the maintenance of their strategic deterrence, which continues to this day.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#327

Post by kingkawn »

dragonwriter wrote: post #187
kingkawn wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vietnam is a better example here. They are continually afraid of Chinese invasion based on nearly a millenia of war preceding the wars with western colonizers. They are at huge disadvantage economically and technologically to China. So every single high school student and college student is trained in guerilla warfare tactics, the entire country is outfitted with secret military installations, and they are ready to r…

> They are continually afraid of Chinese invasion based on nearly a millenia of war preceding the wars with western colonizers And, more to the point, because of the most recent invasion by China, after the wars with western colonizers.

Referenced in my original comment as the war that took place in the late 70s…

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#328

Post by danlugo92 »

treme wrote: post #74
danlugo92 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only good outcome for the whole world is Putin and allies being ousted out of power and replaced by actual non-warmonger democrats. Imagine a future with Russia in the EU, best timeline. Nobody wants nuclear war, maybe some kind of super-sanctions would be the only recourse for the west, cut them off everything, and I mean everything.

You sound pretty naïve. Putin holding on to power is likely the best outcome for the world vs unknown power vacuum & chaos that will ensue after Putin's gone.

A peaceful transition can happen, like when the USSR dissolved.

Of course I wouldn't like a power vacuum in a country with nukes.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#329

Post by qwytw »

bingohbangoh wrote: post #293
qwytw wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, currently Americans seems to be only stationed in Poland (while Germans are mainly in Lithuania, Canadians in Latvia and the UK in Estonia) but I don't see how that fundamentally changes anything.

I was just in Kaunas and ran into American soldiers -- or what I thought were American soldiers? We chatted and they implied this.

I'm not really sure, according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_Enhanced_Forward_Presence they don't have a permanent presence there, but I assume there should still be some fluctuating number of American soldiers in Lithuania due to some temporary reasons of the time.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#330

Post by mempko »

torstenvl wrote: post #208
trasz wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not about morals - nobody in US seems to care about the million people they killed in Middle East - it’s about dead American soldiers looking bad in the TV.

False statements don't help public discussion. It is not true that the U.S. killed a million people in the Middle East. And this is not some sophistic semantic argument either, as it remains not true when you include Afghanistan. The number of civilian casualties is not even close. It is also not true that the U.S. doesn't care about civilian casualties. The U.S., U.K., and Australia are the only countries I know tha…

The U.S. also takes it seriously when whistle blowers and journalists leak a story that tells the opposite. Torturing Chelsea Manning and going after Julian Assange for example.

The million excess deaths from the wars is very realistic and plausible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War

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