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Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

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Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#221

Post by qwytw »

scottLobster wrote: post #197
underscore_ku wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there are already NATO battalions in Latvia and Lithuania. Albania, the Czech Republic, Iceland, Italy, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain contribute to the Canadian-led battlegroup in Latvia; Belgium, the Czech Republic, Iceland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Norway provide contributions to the German-led battlegroup in Lithuania; France and Iceland contribute to the UK-led battlegroup in Estonia; an…

The question is less about NATO deployments and more the will of NATO leadership to go to war with Russia over its more minor members. I hate to say it but the Afghanistan withdrawal really showed what happens when Americans stop giving a shit, and they probably don't give that much of a shit about Latvia. Who's going to step into that gap for NATO? Poland recently ran a military exercise simulating a war with Russia…

What rational reason would Russia have to invade the Baltic States (or even for example Poland)? Even in best case scenario if the west does not directly intervene, they would get an additional few million people almost all of whom absolutely don't want to live in Russia and whom Russia could barely afford to police and a lot of additional economic sanctions. Also we're totally ignoring the internal political fallout (whatever their political views but I'm pretty sure most Russia would not support risking a full-scale war with the west).

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#222

Post by hdjjhhvvhga »

jacquesm wrote: post #109
hdjjhhvvhga wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We'll see about that. I understand your pessimism but we are talking about the most powerful military organization on the planet. If for some strange reason they decide they give up protecting their borders, they might as well not exist. If Russia decides to invade Latvia and NATO does nothing, the whole pact might as well dissolve itself as it serves no function.

The problem is that the rest of Europe doesn't really 'know' Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, they are just names to them. Possibly some people would be able to point them out on a map but the vast bulk of the people has absolutely no link with those countries on account of them being geographically isolated. Their only direct connection is a less than 50 km wide strip of border between Poland and Lithuania with exactl…

I completely agree about hearts and minds, but this is not how NATO works. When the USA asked their partners to help them in the invasion of Afghanistan, Iraq etc., nobody asked about hearts and minds. Many f not most people in the EU were against the war. There were demonstrations in most capitals[0]. But everybody sent their troops even if they didn't care about the war, because this is how NATO works in practice. Moreover, the EU did much more, and some of these things are unknown to the general public. Just some of these leaked, like illegal CIA prisons in Eastern Europe.

Of course France and Germany - the two countries traditionally closer to Putin and trying to keep a bit warmer diplomatic relations than the rest - will hesitate a bit, but rest assured that all other countries will join a NATO defensive operation in order to protect a member state from Russia. Putin knows this, and realizes he can win a conventional war with one small state, but not with many bigger ones. Therefore his main focus is on Ukraine that is not protected by NATO, and as for the Baltic states, he's just performing some minor non-military operations like bringing migrants to the border.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protests_against_the_Iraq_War

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#223

Post by mercy_dude »

varjag wrote: post #214
mercy_dude wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct me if I am wrong but the more I digged into this story more I find it is much more nuanced than this. So briefly here is what I think had happened: - Russia had a huge strategic deal to sell Germany petroleum and natural gas. This was years of diplomatic work and finally got to the point where this looked like a reality. - The settlement of the above deal would be in EUR bypassing the typical petrodollar sett…

Yes, you are wrong. USSR (and then Russia) were selling gas via existing lines to Western Europe since 1970s. The new pipeline is a bypass around Ukraine to remove any leverage against an invasion. Ukraine would love to join NATO (and no, you are not proposed there by other countries that's not how it works). However the US and other allies have cold feet to avoid pissing off Putin.

Fair but you are not arguing why the events are not to be thought of being correlated. So if the natural gas deal with Germany is settled in EUR that seems to be a good enough reason to piss US off and start a proxy war. Why is the momentum for getting Ukraine to EU so strong now?

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#224

Post by adrr »

myth_drannon wrote: post #134
lnsru wrote: post #27

There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army. Especially for countries near unfriendly countries like Russia in this submission. Because all the treaties and documents signed by politicians are absolutely worthless. Ukraine got rid of all the Soviet nuclear weapons and got lots of promises: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur... Now they…

But did Ukraine really had nukes? Physically yes, but not operationally. "Ukraine had the world's third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile,[2][3] of which Ukraine had physical, but not operational, control. Russia alone controlled the codes needed to operate" It's like saying Turkey has nukes...Does it? Or Turkey hosts US's strategic bombers armed with nuclear bombs.

Ukraine had the people and means to make them operational. It also currently has the means to create new nuclear weapons with uranium mines, research reactors and nuclear physics expertise. Also expertise to create ICBMs. Russia has ensured that no nuclear nation will ever disarm because treaties are just a piece a paper and world will just sit back and do nothing when it is violated.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#225

Post by VictorPath »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #79
danlugo92 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only good outcome for the whole world is Putin and allies being ousted out of power and replaced by actual non-warmonger democrats. Imagine a future with Russia in the EU, best timeline. Nobody wants nuclear war, maybe some kind of super-sanctions would be the only recourse for the west, cut them off everything, and I mean everything.

Russia is not in the EU because of fundamental geopolitical differences and diverging interests. Changing the Russian government does not change these aspects. The same goes for China, for instance. It is naive to think that a democratic government in China would fundamentally change anything to the geopolitical situation or China's international policy and goals. The government's leanings may influence the means by…

I mean we have an example of that, there was a radical change in the Russian government and nothing changed on either side.

Destabilizing Russia or China means the West can grab more from the Russian or Chinese people. Look what the West did in China in the 19th century.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#226

Post by d883kd8 »

oneplane wrote: post #209
refurb wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Legally binding” makes me chuckle. “Legally binding” makes sense within a system where a mechanism of enforcement exists. Once you rise above the state, nothing exists, at least on a permanent basis. Ukraine is basically in a situation of “you don’t own what you cant defend through violence”. The Ukraine will lose another chunk of territory. Western nations will “decry this violation of sovereignty” and the UN will…

That US war-motto doesn't make a whole lot of sense in the rest of the developed world. They haven't actually had any battles at home, except for the ones where they attack themselves. It's a relatively young country anyway, so it's hard to pin any value on any war-motto that's not about a far-from-home war (which is what they do have experience with).

The US motto is "E Pluribus Unum"

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#227

Post by neffy »

underscore_ku wrote: post #143
lnsru wrote: post #27

There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army. Especially for countries near unfriendly countries like Russia in this submission. Because all the treaties and documents signed by politicians are absolutely worthless. Ukraine got rid of all the Soviet nuclear weapons and got lots of promises: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur... Now they…

there are already NATO battalions in Latvia and Lithuania. Albania, the Czech Republic, Iceland, Italy, Montenegro, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain contribute to the Canadian-led battlegroup in Latvia; Belgium, the Czech Republic, Iceland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Norway provide contributions to the German-led battlegroup in Lithuania; France and Iceland contribute to the UK-led battlegroup in Estonia; an…

Nope... no battalions in Iceland.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#228

Post by ginko »

lnsru wrote: post #27

There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army. Especially for countries near unfriendly countries like Russia in this submission. Because all the treaties and documents signed by politicians are absolutely worthless. Ukraine got rid of all the Soviet nuclear weapons and got lots of promises: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur... Now they…

>There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army.

Yugoslavia had that and a lot of good it did them.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#229

Post by treeman79 »

refurb wrote: post #177
rmind wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just a few points: - The Budapest Memorandum was, unfortunately, not legally binding. Not justifying the lack of support from the West, but just pointing out an important aspect. - North Atlantic Treaty is legally binding. Also, the Baltic States already host a small multi-national contingent of NATO troops: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO_Enhanced_Forward_Presence - It is also worth noting that the EU has mutual…

“Legally binding” makes me chuckle. “Legally binding” makes sense within a system where a mechanism of enforcement exists. Once you rise above the state, nothing exists, at least on a permanent basis. Ukraine is basically in a situation of “you don’t own what you cant defend through violence”. The Ukraine will lose another chunk of territory. Western nations will “decry this violation of sovereignty” and the UN will…

Is simple. You conquer country. Appoint lawmakers who will say invasion is legal. No legal problems anymore.

Re: Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine

#230

Post by rmind »

tut-urut-utut wrote: post #199
lnsru wrote: post #27

There is only way for country’s protection and it’s Israel’s way where whole country is also an army. Especially for countries near unfriendly countries like Russia in this submission. Because all the treaties and documents signed by politicians are absolutely worthless. Ukraine got rid of all the Soviet nuclear weapons and got lots of promises: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Secur... Now they…

IIRC, it was NATO that signed an agreement that they won't expand to the east when Russia / USSR agreed to withdraw its army from the East Europe. It was the Russia / USSR that agreed to let Ukraine alone as long as they guarantee human rights and equal status of ethnic Russian / Russian-speaking minority in Ukraine (but majority in East Ukraine and Crimea). It was the Russia and USA that agreed to restrict usage of…

NATO never promised to not expand, see Myth 3 here: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/05/myths-and-misconception...
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