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Omicron evades Moderna vaccine too, study suggests, but boosters help

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Re: Omicron evades Moderna vaccine too, study suggests, but boosters help

#41

Post by peteradio »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #37
n8henrie wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 75% of ICU bed are being taken up by young unvaccinated covid patients? FWIW, I think this roughly represents my experience WRT our 4-bed ICU on the Navajo Nation. Extremely high vaccination rate, with the exception of young people who didn't think they would get very sick, and they've ended up representing most of our ICU players.

They're not just "betting all their money" but also their lives on it not being true. because they really want it to be true. And the majority win that bet, for them. But a minority losing it is still enough to fill the ICUs.

Wanna back up that 75% young people clogging up ICUs with covid? Is that what you really want to be true?

Re: Omicron evades Moderna vaccine too, study suggests, but boosters help

#42

Post by maxerickson »

supermatt wrote: post #29

Why would the antibodies be more effective after 3 shots than 2? Shouldn't they be the same/similar antibodies? Is it more a case of the 3rd dose being more recent than the 2nd dose was for participants so there are more present? If so, why are we talking about number of vaccines instead of recency of vaccination?

It isn't a linear response.

Which biological processes certainly don't behave linearly as any sort of rule.

Re: Omicron evades Moderna vaccine too, study suggests, but boosters help

#43

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

peteradio wrote: post #41
SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not just "betting all their money" but also their lives on it not being true. because they really want it to be true. And the majority win that bet, for them. But a minority losing it is still enough to fill the ICUs.

Wanna back up that 75% young people clogging up ICUs with covid? Is that what you really want to be true?

What I "really want to be true" is irrelevant, we have to engage with the world as it is, not as we wish it to be. Plans are better if they are based on reality, not on our "bet".

Re: Omicron evades Moderna vaccine too, study suggests, but boosters help

#44

Post by rsynnott »

yostrovs wrote: post #31
rsynnott wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But all you can hear these days, is that how so much contagious Omicron is, without mentioning the chance of being a lot less harmful. We _know_ that it's spreading very quickly (there is some legitimate question over how much of this is inherent spreading ability vs immunity evasion). The idea that it's "a lot less harmful" is largely speculative; there just isn't the data to say that right now. Now, it may emerge…

Judging by the response of the authorities, the new strain is highly dangerous. There's a lot of panicking going on.

The authorities don't have any special secret knowledge here; they're responding to the (reasonably likely) possibility that it's as dangerous as Delta but will spread much more easily.

Honestly, given the rate of spread, even if it had half the hospitalization risk of Delta it's _still_ terrifying.

Re: Omicron evades Moderna vaccine too, study suggests, but boosters help

#45

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

raxxorrax wrote: post #40
SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a propaganda tactic to assert that the truth is "blatantly wrong" without justifying that, and then when asked, to rant about "bias", "credibility" " fear mongering" and "facts" in response. If you do have a point, then your presentation entirely undermines it. Your failure to answer what is so "very obvious" about something that a wide range of sources contradict, underscores it.

Let us just disagree here what we think is correct or false information. But if you or the original poster want to blame others for their life risk, expect headwind.

> Let us just disagree here what we think is correct or false information

Are you saying now that it's not obvious? So ... not blatant?

> But if you want to blame others for their life risk,

That's not the issue. But people's life risk doesn't exist in a vacuum, it impacts people around them. If their life risk impact me (which it does) then it's an issue. In order to deny that, you have to also deny e.g. that they end up filling the ICUs.

Re: Omicron evades Moderna vaccine too, study suggests, but boosters help

#46

Post by rsynnott »

raxxorrax wrote: post #20
rsynnott wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> according to the South African medical authorities who first identified and reported it Well, according to the doctor who did. Other South African medical authorities have been a lot more cautious. > Most everyone is vaxxed that is high-risk. Let the rest deal with their consequences. The trouble is, the consequences for the rest involve filling up hospitals, ICUs (and ultimately morgues, though this is less disrup…

Unvaccinated people under the age of 60 certainly do not put any significant pressure on ICUs. Saying otherwise is a blatant lie and demonizes people. Doing so and searching blame in others is a symptom of severe inferiority complex which is dangerous to other people, so take care what you say.

> Unvaccinated people under the age of 60 certainly do not put any significant pressure on ICUs.

In countries with near-universal vaccination of over-60s, they actually do. In Ireland, over the past 5 months, 60% of ICU admissions have been under 65. Only 10% have been over 75 (in Ireland, vaccination rates for over 75s are virtually 100%). 10% are aged 25-35: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronav...

The younger people do have a much better survival rate (94% of 15-44s survive, and 73% of 45-54s), but they are taking up space and causing delays of routine hospital work.

And Ireland has a relatively high rate of vaccination of young people; it's just that we have virtually universal vaccination of over 75s (and did by June when this data starts). Incidentally, this report encompasses a lot of data from a period when many 60-75s wouldn't have had their second dose (for various reasons, they were the only age group in Ireland allowed to be given AZ for most of the period, which has a delayed second dose). A similar report for the last three months would likely show an even starker age distribution.

Beyond that, unvaccinated people act as more of a transmission vector than vaccinated people (while at peak there's not much evidence that vaccinated people who have covid are less infectious than unvaccinated people, vaccinated people are less likely to get it in the first place and don't stay infectious for as long).

> Doing so and searching blame in others is a symptom of severe inferiority complex which is dangerous to other people, so take care what you say.

Eh?

Re: Omicron evades Moderna vaccine too, study suggests, but boosters help

#47

Post by raxxorrax »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #45
raxxorrax wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let us just disagree here what we think is correct or false information. But if you or the original poster want to blame others for their life risk, expect headwind.

> Let us just disagree here what we think is correct or false information Are you saying now that it's not obvious? So ... not blatant? > But if you want to blame others for their life risk, That's not the issue. But people's life risk doesn't exist in a vacuum, it impacts people around them. If their life risk impact me (which it does) then it's an issue. In order to deny that, you have to also deny e.g. that they e…

You have to live with that and the risk does not warrant blaming others. Because if they are under a certain age and therefore not in a risk group, the risk to you is marginal, completely independent from anyones vaccination status. You can reduce your risk by getting vaccinated yourself or by isolating.

Re: Omicron evades Moderna vaccine too, study suggests, but boosters help

#48

Post by peteradio »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #43
peteradio wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wanna back up that 75% young people clogging up ICUs with covid? Is that what you really want to be true?

What I "really want to be true" is irrelevant, we have to engage with the world as it is, not as we wish it to be. Plans are better if they are based on reality, not on our "bet".

Ok, so to be clear you believe that young people with their covid are clogging up ICUs at a rate of 75% occupancy, and that is based on an off-the-cuff riff from a single person and not validated statistics? Personally I think its clear that they are saying 75% people of all ages are unvaccinated in the ICU, some unmentioned percentage being "younger" i.e 60 rather than 90. That is, not 75% are young and unvaccinated. The poor precision of the sentence lends itself to be understood incorrectly and its unfortunate that un-discerning people pass along their misunderstanding.

Re: Omicron evades Moderna vaccine too, study suggests, but boosters help

#49

Post by n8henrie »

raxxorrax wrote: post #38
n8henrie wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you getting this from? I bet they have taken at least 50% capacity on average of our 4 bed ICU over the last few months.

That would make sense then. In that case I am firmly for throwing these two rascals in prison.

Not sure I understand this comment.

Unfortunately each of these cases often occupies an ICU bed for weeks. As a result we transfer dozens of other patients hundreds of miles away, and often after >24 hours boarding in the emergency department, because every other ICU bed is full as well (in addition to mandatory down time for the flight crews, which are also working overtime). With help from my ~5 person ED staff, I've called as many as 50 hospitals in a night (spanning 6 of the largest states) trying to find an open ICU bed.

Some relevant conversation on a thread I started in r/medicine: https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/r6bl1u/not_accept...>

Re: Omicron evades Moderna vaccine too, study suggests, but boosters help

#50

Post by n8henrie »

raxxorrax wrote: post #20
rsynnott wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> according to the South African medical authorities who first identified and reported it Well, according to the doctor who did. Other South African medical authorities have been a lot more cautious. > Most everyone is vaxxed that is high-risk. Let the rest deal with their consequences. The trouble is, the consequences for the rest involve filling up hospitals, ICUs (and ultimately morgues, though this is less disrup…

Unvaccinated people under the age of 60 certainly do not put any significant pressure on ICUs. Saying otherwise is a blatant lie and demonizes people. Doing so and searching blame in others is a symptom of severe inferiority complex which is dangerous to other people, so take care what you say.

AZ has some reasonably accessible data: https://azdhs.gov/covid19/data/index.php#hospital-bed-usage>

It looks like ~40% of all ICU beds taken by COVID patients recently. Doesn't break down by age, so doesn't inform this question completely, but it can speak against the 75% number quoted elsewhere in this conversation (and my anecdotal experience as well).

In AZ at least, certainly 75% of all ICU beds can't be taken by young unvaccinated COVID patients if only 40% of ICU beds were taken by COVID patients.

EDIT: UT also around ~40% https://coronavirus-dashboard.utah.gov/hosp.html>

Duration of admission is something to consider as well though. Nobody likes to let young people die, and the odds of keeping someone with a very grim prognosis on the vent for weeks or months is higher if they are young and otherwise healthy as opposed to old or unhealthy; one young ventilated COVID patient could occupy an ICU bed for quite some time while the neighboring bed is turned over dozens of times and while dozens of other patients may expire or be flown hundreds of miles away (to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars for the flight alone) for lack of an ICU bed.

Difficult to answer (for me at least) ethical considerations on all sides.

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