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Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#651

I am going to go against the grain here and ask someone more knowledgeable than myself if the large number of changes in this variant is typical in virus evolution? Because as an outsider, it appears to me that studying the history of past pandemics would present a road map as to what must be modified to attenuate the damage potential in a virus. I suppose my question really is, why are we chancing GOF research, if n…

Thank you for your question. There are virologists and immunologists currently exploring the mutation-space of SARS-CoV-2 for nearly all potential mutations that produce a viable virus capable of infecting human cells. Based on that mutation-space, they're trying to determine if a vaccine regime can exist which can counter all possible mutations of SARS-CoV-2. So far, it looks like it's possible. Here's a presentatio…

> There are virologists and immunologists currently exploring the mutation-space of SARS-CoV-2 for nearly all potential mutations that produce a viable virus capable of infecting human cells. Based on that mutation-space, they're trying to determine if a vaccine regime can exist which can counter all possible mutations of SARS-CoV-2. So far, it looks like it's possible.

Well, that would be just awesome! Any chance for similar pan-effective vaccines for other viruses?

It would be pretty cool if COVID-19 ended up having the silver lining of enabling a step-function improvement in vaccine technology.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#652
post #647

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you lie, or omit the truth and get caught, they will never listen to anything you say ever again.

I wish the antivaxx/snake oil/it's just the flu folks were held to that standard.

I don't think you'd believe anything they would have to say, would you? Either way, if you are a public health official you have to be held to a higher standard than a guy with Facebook account.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#653

I am going to go against the grain here and ask someone more knowledgeable than myself if the large number of changes in this variant is typical in virus evolution? Because as an outsider, it appears to me that studying the history of past pandemics would present a road map as to what must be modified to attenuate the damage potential in a virus. I suppose my question really is, why are we chancing GOF research, if n…

What I'm curious about is if the "leaky" vaccines are actually the cause for the amount of mutation we've seen in Covid in 2 years. Variants seemed to accelerate after vaccine rollout began but, I'm not remotely qualified to say they're related.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those diseases could be (mostly) eradicated because they have incredibly effective vaccines - the CDC quotes 95% for smallpox, 97% for measles, 99-100% for polio. No currently known Covid vaccine is that effective and there's no obvious reason to expect future ones will be.

Its all relative. Measles is 3x more infectious than even Delta. Current vaccines are 95% effective against the original strain, 60% vs Delta, unknown vs Omicron. You boost the vaccine however, and you're back to 90% efficacy vs Delta, and like 75% vs Omicron.

The difference isn't as minor as I think you're suggesting. Compared to 95% efficacy, 90% efficacy means twice as many vaccinated people get sick and 75% efficacy means five times as many get sick. I don't see how eradication programs would work with such a differential, and (relatedly) I don't know of any experts who think it's feasible to eradicate Covid with current technology.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#655
post #197
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Probably naive to think we could totally eradicate it within a couple of years, particularly as far as vaccine fearmongering is concerned. Would be nice to see it join Smallpox and Polio though. We would have to completely redesign our current method of vaccination, then. We do not have a sterilizing vaccine for COVID (like we did for smallpox and polio). The current vaccines all use spike proteins to prepare a body…

Huh? I would suggest you read: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/09/steriliz... We don't actually have sterilizing vaccines for smallpox or polio either.

That article strikes me as largely playing a semantic game. From the article:

>The classic tale of sterilizing immunity unfolds something like this: A pathogen attempts to infiltrate a body; antibodies, lurking in the vicinity thanks to vaccination or a previous infection, instantly zap it out of existence, so speedily that the microbe can’t even reproduce. No symptoms manifest, and most of the body’s immune cells never get involved, a bit like an intruder smacking up against an electric fence around a building, leaving the security guards inside none the wiser.

and

>This is a very neat story. And it is “almost impossible to prove,” Mark Slifka, an immunologist and vaccine expert at Oregon Health & Science University, told me. To show sterilizing immunity, researchers have to demonstrate that an infection never occurred—a big ask, considering that microbiologists can’t even agree on what an infection actually is.

If that is the definition used, yes, you are right. It is also basically useless as a term, as it is 'almost impossible to prove.' If you wish to use another term, we can do that. Instead of sterilizing, I could simply say 'highly effective.' Suffice to say, the mechanisms used by the COVID vaccine and the polio vaccine are very different. At most, the polio vaccine only included 3 strains (or variants)- the Salk vaccine, the first, only targeted type 1, but two more were added later over the course of years.

All of this is to say- the highly effective polio vaccine works because there are very few polio variants and people are immunized against them directly.

The COVID vaccine does not make one immune to the virus, or immune to the spike protein. The presence of the spike protein in the vaccine provokes an autoimmune response in the form of antibodies that will target that spike protein. This is somewhat effective, and a clever 'hack' that allows us a measure of protection. However, different spike proteins can be used by different variant viruses.

I am not antivaccine, and while autoimmune systems can be fairly complex, it is certainly worth discussing. Frankly I find the obfuscation and sloppy, ideological reporting to be frustrating. On all sides I see a lack of rigor and emotional attempts at control.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#656

Prediction - nerds will drum up any FUD related to omicron to postpone return to the office. I am seeing it in my company already - in the today's tech virtual townhall "omicron is going to hit hard, so why go back to the office in Jan" was the most upvoted comment in the stream.

Maybe people are just scared? There’s no ulterior motives needed about working in the office here. Omicron is scary. Also with something this spectacularly infectious it pays at the community level to work from home and slow the spread. Maybe consider the vulnerable in your community before you force your entire company to catch covid and then infect their grandparents.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s believed that 70%+ of South Africa have already had covid, and there is substantial protection from severe cases on reinfection.

Is there any reason to believe that having a large number of previously infected individuals is unique to South Africa?

https://covidestim.org/ provides estimates of the percentage of previously infected individuals by US state. I happen to be in Massachusetts, for which they estimate around 50% previously infected, with error bars. So a bit lower than South Africa, but not too far in the big scheme of things.

The UK provides some estimates of seroprevalence in blood donors (thus a skewed sample): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-... (Figure 3). These estimates aren't quite what you are looking for, but one test is sensitive to previous infection and estimates 20% previously infected, whereas another test is sensitive to (infection OR vaccine) and estimates ~100%. Basically, in that population, pretty much everybody has some kind of antibodies.

To answer your question, I would say that SA doesn't look particularly unique.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#658

Out of curiosity, do we really require these studies? Like it is good to have more and more sources, but wouldn't the expected outcome to be the following: - vaccines that replicated the spike protein will be less effective since omicron has a modified spike protein, because the immune system only was trained to notice the spike protein and not the payload - naturally induced immunity from prior exposure to Sars-Cov-…

Do you really need to check the safety on your gun if you expect that it’s on?

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#659
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

South Africa’s excess deaths amount to 1 out of every 200 people. The most vulnerable have already been removed from the sample set. I’m going to wait for severity data from where I live, because that’s what matters.

every year more vulnerable people are added to that set as population ages, gets fatter, has more advanced coronary or metabolic disease, etc. not trying to contradict here I think it will be less each year. maybe governments will even start telling people their dirt and exercise choices are exacerbating this disease!

[deleted]

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#660

I am going to go against the grain here and ask someone more knowledgeable than myself if the large number of changes in this variant is typical in virus evolution? Because as an outsider, it appears to me that studying the history of past pandemics would present a road map as to what must be modified to attenuate the damage potential in a virus. I suppose my question really is, why are we chancing GOF research, if n…

What I'm curious about is if the "leaky" vaccines are actually the cause for the amount of mutation we've seen in Covid in 2 years. Variants seemed to accelerate after vaccine rollout began but, I'm not remotely qualified to say they're related.

It doesn't seem likely. Vaccines were mostly rolled out in the west (read: United States), whereas the initial variants (alpha and delta) were a result of COVID proliferation in unvaccinated areas. Delta, for example, first really blew up in India.

It is important to not forget the little details, and to avoid speculations based on broad statements (e.g. the vaccines "rolled out" and we got "more variants"). The vaccines started rolling out to very specific locations and we got variants everywhere.

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