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Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#371

Post by chimprich »

jjk166 wrote: post #118
fer wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It depends on what you call severity. If severity means the host dies quickly rather than slowly, there's obviously selection pressure and that mutation will die off relatively quickly vs the rest, since it won't have as many chances to spread as the less severe strain. E.g. SARS/MERS. If severity means the host dies more often, but it still takes a long time to die, the selection pressure is much lower, and it will…

Spanish Flu did evolve to become more mild. All modern seasonal flu variants are descended from it.

> Spanish Flu did evolve to become more mild

That doesn't make sense. We have seen regular waves of flu, some being more pathogenic than others. There has not been a "direction" of flu strains becoming milder. So-called Spanish flu came after weaker strains.

> All modern seasonal flu variants are descended from it.

I don't think this makes sense either. The more serious strains of flu we've had in recent decades have for example included contributions from bird and pig viruses.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#372

Post by defaultprimate »

roywiggins wrote: post #365
defaultprimate wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/bangladesh-mask-study-do-... https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article "At present there is only limited and inconsistent scientific evidence to support the effectiveness of masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2 (75). A large randomized community-based trial in which 4862 healthy participants were…

Look, I'm not qualified to evaluate a study like this, but between Science and "el gato malo" published on Substack, I think I'm going to have to go with Science on this one, pending some recognized expert in the field with a human name saying otherwise.

Skepticism and methodological criticism are definitionally "science". Not cult like faith. Ad hominems and appeals to authority are not valid arguments.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#373

Post by fshbbdssbbgdd »

GeekyBear wrote: post #339
fshbbdssbbgdd wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The big question is whether the disease is genuinely milder, or whether the mild cases are just a consequence of the virus infecting people who are partially immune (due to the immune escape properties). We’ll learn the answer in a few weeks when the strain has had a chance to infect the old and unwell and we will see if the hospitalizations and deaths increase.

>The big question is whether the disease is genuinely milder, or whether the mild cases are just a consequence of the virus infecting people who are partially immune The initial data says that even though South Africa has a much lower vaccination rate, omicron is mild. From today: > lack of high death and hospitalization rates, despite the fact that Omicron has spread at breakneck speed across the country and account…

It’s believed that 70%+ of South Africa have already had covid, and there is substantial protection from severe cases on reinfection.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#374

Post by romwell »

native_samples wrote: post #355
chimprich wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world. There is absolutely no evidence for this variant being less pathogenic. It is quite likely that the milder outcomes observed with this variant so far are because of immunity generated by vaccines and prior infections. The idea that this will make vaccines less essential is a fanta…

Evidence so far: - Pathogenicity: Virtually no hospitalizations or deaths. There's only one reported death so far "with" Omicron, about which there are absolutely no details released whatsoever and which was rather suspiciously announced by the UK PM just before a vote. - Pathogenicity: all reports from SA say the symptoms are not only extremely mild, but don't actually match COVID symptoms at all. The first person t…

> One is that the vaccine programme has now completely failed

You mean succeeded? As in, prevented many people from dying, and forced the virus to mutate into Omicron, which is far less dangerous.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#375

Post by ineedasername »

landemva wrote: post #292
ineedasername wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Everything seems pretty good so far" There shortages of hospital beds across many states [0] If you want a full perspective on things, look further than your own state. Unless you live in Wyoming, Colorado, Alaska, North Dakota, or Montana then everything is not going very well. Most people don't live in these states, and many of the states with loose mask mandates are not in that short list. A small are just about…

Increase in infections does not equal death. It does bring the population closer to herd immunity. Infections and recovery bring sterilizing immunity, which is not provided by the shots.

Infections have been a lagging indicator for deaths this entire time and immunity from infections does not appear to last as long as immunity from vaccinations. The people most resistant to right now are those who had covid already and get vaccinated.

I also don't understand your assessment that we are reaching (or can reach) herd immunity: We're not there on the common cold or influenza, and it seems COVID mutates at rates that will keep it around as well. Early evidence on Omicron indicates that it in particular is better at reinfection than other strains, so I hope the data in the next few weeks confirms its milder nature, but reinfection provides even more opportunity for variants to emerge.

We're much better off than we were a year ago: The holiday spike is (so far) not as bad, deaths are lower than last year at this time, and vaccines are widely available. But we're not back to normal yet (probably never will be) and I don't think we're doing as well right now as we could be, and I think we can make a lot more progress before we declare this thing over and adjust to a new status-quo.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#376

Post by pvarangot »

calebm wrote: post #224
roody15 wrote: post #175

This is honesty good news. The best case scenario is a new less deadly highly contagious strain that become the most dominant and spreads worldwide. Way too many comments and articles that try and keep the fear train running full steam. A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world.

I agree. Maybe COVID has changed to be more cooperative with humanity (it's a good strategy for parasites to not kill their hosts).

It's a virus. If you grab a single grain of soil there's probably more things "having strategies" there than COVID. The media just makes it sound like it's alive but it's literally the less-alive thing that still evolves biologically that anyone knows about.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#377

Post by BoxOfRain »

roody15 wrote: post #175

This is honesty good news. The best case scenario is a new less deadly highly contagious strain that become the most dominant and spreads worldwide. Way too many comments and articles that try and keep the fear train running full steam. A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world.

>Way too many comments and articles that try and keep the fear training running full steam.

Enragement is engagement, and how better to enrage people than scaring everyone out of their wits and politicising everything as far as humanly possible? I'm certainly no COVID denier nor vaccine sceptic, though to me it's astonishing how little discussion has happened around the fact that everyone from some randomer's blog to major media outlets have every incentive towards alarmism and sensationalism and no incentive at all for moderation and sober analysis.

If you're a media outlet of any description and you write articles / film videos using hard-hitting emotional language to make people as terrified as possible, they'll be doomscrolling through your content all day and seeing lots of ads in the process. Even if it turns out your content was complete bollocks, you still got the engagement and ad revenue and by the time you post a correction (if you even bother) the news cycle has moved on to the next Horrible Truth you Must Read All About Right Now Or Else Bad Things will Happen to You. If you instead write a calm, measured article that right off the bat admits the caveats with any scary claims then nobody will read it and your potential readers/cash cows will be off on your competitor's sites that are using sensationalist and alarmist language.

The depressing thing is that even the average 'masks and distancing every winter forever' people and average 'restrictions are just a cover for politicians to consolidate their authoritarian power' people have far more in common with each-other than they do with say, Rupert Murdoch. So much completely artificial hatred has been generated and it has driven completely needless shards of anger and resentment between colleagues, between friends, and between families.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#378

Post by native_samples »

romwell wrote: post #374
native_samples wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Evidence so far: - Pathogenicity: Virtually no hospitalizations or deaths. There's only one reported death so far "with" Omicron, about which there are absolutely no details released whatsoever and which was rather suspiciously announced by the UK PM just before a vote. - Pathogenicity: all reports from SA say the symptoms are not only extremely mild, but don't actually match COVID symptoms at all. The first person t…

> One is that the vaccine programme has now completely failed You mean succeeded ? As in, prevented many people from dying, and forced the virus to mutate into Omicron, which is far less dangerous.

Failed as in the vaccines, that were being advertised as being 95% effective with no talk of any boosters only 6 months ago, no longer provide any protection at all.

As for the vaccines forcing mutation, SA is only 25% vaccinated so that doesn't work.

Have the vaccines succeeded in preventing many people from dying? That is something for history to judge. There just isn't good enough data on vaccine deaths to judge that at the moment. The problem for COVID vaccines is that whilst they may some people from dying of COVID, not many life years are saved because almost all the COVID deaths are concentrated in the very elderly. Meanwhile vaccine injuries are a looming iceberg because they aren't being properly tracked or recorded. The number of random cardiac failures in athletes is well up this year and eventually people will stop being in denial about the reasons. The long term damage from this programme can be judged in five or ten years.

However, if Omicron does display Delta as it appears to be doing very rapidly, we can say that at most the vaccines were useful for maybe 6-8 months. Bearing in mind you aren't "vaccinated" until your second dose and there's a gap.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#379

Post by chimprich »

native_samples wrote: post #355
chimprich wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A mild strain of covid that is contagious, leads to natural immunity and doesn’t require a vaccine is an absolute win win for the world. There is absolutely no evidence for this variant being less pathogenic. It is quite likely that the milder outcomes observed with this variant so far are because of immunity generated by vaccines and prior infections. The idea that this will make vaccines less essential is a fanta…

Evidence so far: - Pathogenicity: Virtually no hospitalizations or deaths. There's only one reported death so far "with" Omicron, about which there are absolutely no details released whatsoever and which was rather suspiciously announced by the UK PM just before a vote. - Pathogenicity: all reports from SA say the symptoms are not only extremely mild, but don't actually match COVID symptoms at all. The first person t…

> Pathogenicity: Virtually no hospitalizations or deaths

This is not correct. We've seen quite a few hospitalisations. See the dramatic uptick in South African hospital numbers.

Deaths have generally occurred about 4 weeks after infection. Omicron was only reported to the WHO about 3 weeks ago.

The rest of your post is of a similar level of confusion.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#380

Post by mikeyouse »

roywiggins wrote: post #365
defaultprimate wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/bangladesh-mask-study-do-... https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article "At present there is only limited and inconsistent scientific evidence to support the effectiveness of masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2 (75). A large randomized community-based trial in which 4862 healthy participants were…

Look, I'm not qualified to evaluate a study like this, but between Science and "el gato malo" published on Substack, I think I'm going to have to go with Science on this one, pending some recognized expert in the field with a human name saying otherwise.

The author of the study that the bad cat is trying to discredit wrote a long, persuasive rebuttal to the simplistic critiques he's been reading on Tyler Cowen's blog;

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/11/ja...

They saw a significant reduction in covid presence in communities with more masking -- even though total masking was still only 40% in those communities -- which is very much in line with all the other literature.

I literally can't believe people still pretend like masks (especially surgical/KN95s) don't protect people when it's completely self-evident since we've used them forever to protect people in medical settings.

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