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Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#91

Post by panarky »

34679 wrote: post #82

Omicron has been found in 38 countries and there are still no deaths caused by it. [1] The media are running with the story that the first death from Omicron just happened in the UK, but read Boris Johnson's quote: "Sadly at least one patient has now been confirmed to have died with Omicron," Johnson told reporters [2] This sounds batshit crazy, because it is, but in the UK, if you die from something unrelated while…

Do you have a source that says covid did not contribute to the death of the UK patient?

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#93

Post by scythe »

cableshaft wrote: post #47
boringg wrote: post #21

I have a question for anyone who has a serious level of knowledge on virus evolution: As viruses evolve over time is there any correlation to severity - do they have trade offs as they evolve? I am hoping that it would be some kind of trade off that the virus makes in that it can spread more easily but not be as severe (I understand that it is unlikely nature requires a trade-off). I ask as my concern is that while t…

One thing that makes Covid-19 a bit different from other viruses that have trended towards milder infections is its long incubation time (while still being infectious). So it can already spread pretty easily even if it's killing those people, and thus there's not a lot of darwinian pressure to become milder. It might still trend towards that over time, but it will probably be slower at it than other viruses, and thus…

I think that the basic severity-lowering gradient still applies, but now it happens in two dimensions. Furthermore, it seems plausible that the sequence of variants "Original" -> Delta -> Omicron follows such a pattern.

First, evolutionary pressure will select for a lower dormancy period, i.e. a lower time to contagion. This is because a variant with a shorter dormancy will spread faster than one with a longer dormancy period if both are present in the same population. This is also exactly what happened with the Delta variant, which is asymptomatic generally for a shorter period[1] than the original variant, because it replicates faster.

Second, the usual process occurs for the usual reasons. This may be happening with Omicron.

[1]: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/...

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#94

Post by tannisphere4 »

bitwize wrote: post #20
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would suspect that most people who are were already vulnerable have already passed or built immunity if the virus is equally dangerous, resulting in a lower than equal death rate despite equivalent risk. Although... Can we never, not even once, be a little optimistic? To me, the news that we may be replacing COVID with a less severe strain is some of the best news of the year. COVID clearly isn't going away at this…

> Although... Can we never, not even once, be a little optimistic? No. This is a perfectly good crisis and to do so would be to let it go to waste.

Someone out there is doing a study on meta-communication during COVID. The internalization of dominant narratives on social media is such an unspoken axiom, that merely SUGGESTING optimism results in a flurry of "we can't be sure!" finger-waves.

One could hypothesize that those who derive greater self-esteem or self-worth from social dynamics would engage in behaviors where the long-run probability of increasing self-esteem is higher. In other words, the most adaptive posts on both sides of a social media debate would be those which: A) maximally increase self-esteem via ingroup loyalty, and B) cause the debate to be prolonged or not resolved, thereby increasing the duration of A. The "we can't be sure" defense in response to optimism is B.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#95

Post by ceejayoz »

rajin444 wrote: post #74
panarky wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a little optimistic? Sure, for this immediate wave [more transmissible less virulent] is better than [more transmissible more virulent]. But that's awfully myopic. What happens after that? Since mutation rate is a function of the number of viral particles, and more transmission means many more hosts incubating many more particles, we should expect to see more new variants, faster. So the probability just went up th…

How do you reconcile this with the human race existing for so long? I guess you could make the argument global travel has changed things, but I’m not sure.

I mean, we can strive for more than just existence. The Black Death didn't wipe us out, but that doesn't mean it was fun to undergo.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#96

Post by manjana »

legulere wrote: post #48
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would suspect that most people who are were already vulnerable have already passed or built immunity if the virus is equally dangerous, resulting in a lower than equal death rate despite equivalent risk. Although... Can we never, not even once, be a little optimistic? To me, the news that we may be replacing COVID with a less severe strain is some of the best news of the year. COVID clearly isn't going away at this…

Of course we should be optimistic that omicron and variants that will follow will be less severe. But that hope should not be treated as a fact like the headline does. Another hope could be that omicron is actually not as virulent as delta, but only spreads so fast in South Africa, because people can get reinfected.

> Another hope could be that omicron is actually not as virulent as delta, but only spreads so fast in South Africa, because people can get reinfected.

It's seeing a pretty explosive growth rate in Denmark.

https://sum.dk/ministeren/sociale-medier-arkiv/2021/december...

https://www.ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/files/covid19/omikron/statusr...

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#97

Post by kiba »

systemvoltage wrote: post #79
kiba wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That said, we've accepted an annual winter uptick in flu infections and we just tell people most vulnerable to get their yearly flu jab; less vulnerable folks can stay at home for a bit and manage the symptoms. If that's what we have to do for covid every winter then so be it. Accepted? I would call that normalizing as well. According to an estimate, about 290,000 to 650,000 globally died of the flu each year.[1] Nor…

If it means more lockdowns and more restrictions, more government powers; absolutely normalize COVID. We have given up enough.

Just because our economy cannot withstand further lockdowns and restrictions doesn't mean that the normalization of COVID is any more excusable. It just means we failed.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#98

Post by wonderwonder »

tn890 wrote: post #71
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would suspect that most people who are were already vulnerable have already passed or built immunity if the virus is equally dangerous, resulting in a lower than equal death rate despite equivalent risk. Although... Can we never, not even once, be a little optimistic? To me, the news that we may be replacing COVID with a less severe strain is some of the best news of the year. COVID clearly isn't going away at this…

> I would suspect that most people who are were already vulnerable have already passed or built immunity if the virus is equally dangerous, resulting in a lower than equal death rate despite equivalent risk. You are forgetting about the most vulnerable group of all: immunosuppressed people. They cannot mount a sufficient immune response, in severe immunosuppression like after a transplant event months or years after.…

I live in a state where mask mandates are essentially gone. Very few people wear masks here and they are not required in schools so only ~5% of kids are wearing them at my children's elementary school. Everything seems pretty good so far, no marked rise in cases and almost no cases in my kids school over the last year, maybe 25 total, all mild. I am in no way saying masks don't work, in fact I think that they do. With that said, I have not worn a mask in a long time, I am fully vaccinated including a booster and essentially figure that is enough. I work from home so if I get covid its going to be from my kids.

"We have to be mindful of people like this when thinking about dropping mask mandates and such."

Not arguing with you, just genuinely interested on how long you would advocate for mask mandates? Would you be willing to accept mask mandates in perpetuity?

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#99

Post by xyproto »

ufo wrote: post #13

The title is misleading. It is possible that Omicron is just as severe and that the effect in the study is because a large percentage of the population had some immunity from a previous infection or vaccine. > South Africa has a quite high seroprevalence of prior infection, particularly after delta, and in some parts of South Africa up to 80 percent of people were exposed to previous infection. We don’t think it’s a…

There are plenty of people in intensive care, though.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#100

Post by 34679 »

panarky wrote: post #91
34679 wrote: post #82

Omicron has been found in 38 countries and there are still no deaths caused by it. [1] The media are running with the story that the first death from Omicron just happened in the UK, but read Boris Johnson's quote: "Sadly at least one patient has now been confirmed to have died with Omicron," Johnson told reporters [2] This sounds batshit crazy, because it is, but in the UK, if you die from something unrelated while…

Do you have a source that says covid did not contribute to the death of the UK patient?

Just the quote that says "with" instead of "from" until the data is released.
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