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Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#61

Post by Sharlin »

nyokodo wrote: post #36
ufo wrote: post #13

The title is misleading. It is possible that Omicron is just as severe and that the effect in the study is because a large percentage of the population had some immunity from a previous infection or vaccine. > South Africa has a quite high seroprevalence of prior infection, particularly after delta, and in some parts of South Africa up to 80 percent of people were exposed to previous infection. We don’t think it’s a…

> It is possible that Omicron is just as severe and that the effect in the study is because a large percentage of the population had some immunity from a previous infection or vaccine. All viruses are severe if you have no immune protection from them. A small number of people die from the cold every year. The only thing that matters is how severe the infection is given the immunity you have.

Well, yes, but if you’re naively comparing the severity of omicron infections to that of the previous strains then that’s just apples and oranges because the degree of immunization in the population is not the same, even if you only consider non-vaccinated people.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#62

Post by simonh »

notabee wrote: post #41
ufo wrote: post #13

The title is misleading. It is possible that Omicron is just as severe and that the effect in the study is because a large percentage of the population had some immunity from a previous infection or vaccine. > South Africa has a quite high seroprevalence of prior infection, particularly after delta, and in some parts of South Africa up to 80 percent of people were exposed to previous infection. We don’t think it’s a…

Additionally, severe illness and deaths are a lagging indicator. Cases are going to wildly outpace those figures because of how transmissable this is, until they don't. Deaths especially often take months from onset.

Hence the credulous articles about how India was 'special' when the virus first started spreading there because there were so few fatalities. Turns out it was spreading incredibly fast so cases were surging, but it took a month or more for the wave of deaths to follow. But follow it absolutely did.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#63

Post by croes »

___q wrote: post #59
croes wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't forget this part: "South Africa has a quite high seroprevalence of prior infection, particularly after delta, and in some parts of South Africa up to 80 percent of people were exposed to previous infection" So it could simply be that the mild cases were previously infected, what happens to an unvaccinated without prior infection is a different story.

> unvaccinated without prior infection is a different story. No it's not, the study specifically mentions "the relative reduction of risk conferred by prior proven COVID-19 infection" https://www.discovery.co.za/corporate/news-room

Infection risk but not hospitalizations risk or death risk. That's what I meant, the previous infection doesn't protect against infection but might prevent severe cases.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#64

Post by simonh »

exabrial wrote: post #49

IIRC, this was predicted, which is hopeful and good thing. I remember reading an article last summer that generally diseases become less severe over time.

Generally, statistically yes, but not always. Most of the people that died in the Spanish Flu epidemic died in the second wave, a year after the first. A couple of years after that and less dangerous variants came to dominate but there was huge devastation before that came about.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#65

Post by marpstar »

panarky wrote: post #60
gjsman-1000 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would suspect that most people who are were already vulnerable have already passed or built immunity if the virus is equally dangerous, resulting in a lower than equal death rate despite equivalent risk. Although... Can we never, not even once, be a little optimistic? To me, the news that we may be replacing COVID with a less severe strain is some of the best news of the year. COVID clearly isn't going away at this…

> a little optimistic? Sure, for this immediate wave [more transmissible less virulent] is better than [more transmissible more virulent]. But that's awfully myopic. What happens after that? Since mutation rate is a function of the number of viral particles, and more transmission means many more hosts incubating many more particles, we should expect to see more new variants, faster. So the probability just went up th…

It's a miracle that the human race has survived this long, and COVID is clearly not driving us to extinction.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#66

Post by SippinLean »

ufo wrote: post #13

The title is misleading. It is possible that Omicron is just as severe and that the effect in the study is because a large percentage of the population had some immunity from a previous infection or vaccine. > South Africa has a quite high seroprevalence of prior infection, particularly after delta, and in some parts of South Africa up to 80 percent of people were exposed to previous infection. We don’t think it’s a…

> For individuals who have had COVID-19 previously, the risk of reinfection with Omicron is significantly higher, relative to prior variants.

https://www.discovery.co.za/corporate/news-room

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#67

Post by zamfi »

cableshaft wrote: post #47
boringg wrote: post #21

I have a question for anyone who has a serious level of knowledge on virus evolution: As viruses evolve over time is there any correlation to severity - do they have trade offs as they evolve? I am hoping that it would be some kind of trade off that the virus makes in that it can spread more easily but not be as severe (I understand that it is unlikely nature requires a trade-off). I ask as my concern is that while t…

One thing that makes Covid-19 a bit different from other viruses that have trended towards milder infections is its long incubation time (while still being infectious). So it can already spread pretty easily even if it's killing those people, and thus there's not a lot of darwinian pressure to become milder. It might still trend towards that over time, but it will probably be slower at it than other viruses, and thus…

That’s only one pressure driving viral evolution.

Another pressure is social response to infection: so far, the predominant response to a more-virulent or more-lethal strain has been lockdown and/or other behavioral change, see: delta in India. On the flip side, a variant that causes milder symptoms is less likely to cause the same social response, which allows the virus to spread more widely.

This may (may!) be what we’re observing with Omicron. In any case, we’ll know much more in a few weeks.

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#68

Post by [deleted] »

croes wrote: post #63
___q wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> unvaccinated without prior infection is a different story. No it's not, the study specifically mentions "the relative reduction of risk conferred by prior proven COVID-19 infection" https://www.discovery.co.za/corporate/news-room

Infection risk but not hospitalizations risk or death risk. That's what I meant, the previous infection doesn't protect against infection but might prevent severe cases.

[deleted]

Re: Omicron variant more resistant to vaccine but causes less severe Covid: study

#69

Post by ianhawes »

zzzeek wrote: post #27

cue the "it's just the flu!" army. on this end, I do not want covid at all, straight up. I will keep wearing my N95 to all the dirty looks I keep getting and boost as much as the boosts are there.

I would advise receiving the vaccine and follow-up boosters. That way, when you inevitably contract COVID-19, your risk of death is unlikely.
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