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Bird populations declining fast across North America

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Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#131

Post by rglover »

SkipperCat wrote: post #18

I think this and many of the similar problems plaguing the earth will only be solved with a drastic reduction of people on the planet. Get the population down to 1 or 2 billion of us and a lot of these issues go away. Deforesting, not an issue if the demand for lumber is cut down by 80%. Same for coal, oil, paving, lithium... It all gets solved with just less people. 8 billion people is just too much, even if we all…

"To be fair, the others just aren't as important as me. Therefore, we should find a way to...shall we say, flush the excess."

Read in this voice: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G19B7lTgwCE

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#132

Post by SkipperCat »

happyopossum wrote: post #86
SkipperCat wrote: post #18

I think this and many of the similar problems plaguing the earth will only be solved with a drastic reduction of people on the planet. Get the population down to 1 or 2 billion of us and a lot of these issues go away. Deforesting, not an issue if the demand for lumber is cut down by 80%. Same for coal, oil, paving, lithium... It all gets solved with just less people. 8 billion people is just too much, even if we all…

Soooo, lemme get this straight. Your solution to keeping the earth habitable for animals is genocide and forced sterilization ?

Wow - you went to a dark place real fast... You ever hear about this thing called family planning?

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#133

Post by themodelplumber »

Retric wrote: post #121
themodelplumber wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sounds more like an argument for systems design. You can easily build models and meta-models that help navigate various scopes. For example the concept of the long tail is by definition a widely-scoped way of gaining leverage in a situation where smaller details are important. Traffic control systems, computer hardware design...these all incorporate the same combinations of depth and breadth of thinking. I think…

It’s not a question of excluding the model, it’s a question of the feedback loop where the model is used to both inform your decisions and validate they where correct. Goodhart's law is an adage often stated as "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure"

> it’s a question of the feedback loop where the model is used to both inform your decisions and validate they where correct.

Who exactly are we criticizing for doing this? Seems a bit like a straw man argument tbh. I'm not even sure how that relates to the more general concept raised above, of a single model of reality being reliable.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#134

Post by nobody9999 »

moosey wrote: post #5

Until human society stops serving abstractions (like money) over things that are real, then real things will continually face consequence. These will still over into our lives in a multitude of ways until we no longer have real systems to support these abstractions. Loss of natural life is such a failure. Today we speak of stock markets, governments, businesses. Someday, our main concern will not be these shared drea…

>Until human society stops serving abstractions (like money) over things that are real, then real things will continually face consequence.

But birds aren't real![0]

[0] https://birdsarentreal.com/

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#135

Post by nradov »

derbOac wrote: post #58
selestify wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But isn't the problem that these abstractions exist precisely to help coordinate real things? The economy (and by extension, to a limited degree, the stock market) directly influences a lot of real things and basic needs.

I think the problem is that there's lots of hidden costs or incorrect assumptions in much of the way society functions. We overestimate how rational people are, many costs get swept under the rug or ignored as "something for future people to deal with", certain costs are just hidden, we fail to account for corruption and fraud, and so forth and so on. It's not really that we use abstractions or models, it's that many…

Abstractions and models tend to get more correct over time. Sure sometimes we get off track or even go backwards, but if you look back at all of recorded human history our abstractions and models are generally a better fit to objective reality than ever before. You have an opportunity to help improve them further, if you choose to take it.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#136

Post by trhway »

jonmc12 wrote: post #22

> The U.S North American Bird Conservation Initiative estimates that our pet felines kill some 2.6 billion birds annually in the U.S. alone. The 100M pet cats in US on average kill 26 birds/yr? Doesn't seem right. When I track the source[1] of research, the estimates include both "own" and "unowned" cats and rely on some assumptions like "a correction factor to account for owned cats not returning all prey to owners"…

> When I track the source[1] of research

Ah, the famous anti-cat "study" (giving its huge glaring deficiencies it is more like propaganda pamphlet) by Smithsonian Migratory Bird Center where a postdoc got convicted several years ago for animal cruelty committed toward cats! That is really objective people without agenda... Would you take seriously for example a study by child molesters on societal benefits of child molestation?

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#137

Post by abeppu »

karaterobot wrote: post #106
moosey wrote: post #5

Until human society stops serving abstractions (like money) over things that are real, then real things will continually face consequence. These will still over into our lives in a multitude of ways until we no longer have real systems to support these abstractions. Loss of natural life is such a failure. Today we speak of stock markets, governments, businesses. Someday, our main concern will not be these shared drea…

Disagree with this. According to this article, birds aren't dying off because people choose the almighty dollar, they're dying because they smash into windows or are hunted by cats. The solution isn't to examine our relationship to abstractions versus reality, it's to put a screen on the window so the bird will notice it in time.

Actually, is that really what the article said?

> Experts believe that habitat loss due to agricultural development and intensification is most likely the driving factor.

But I don't think the numbers in the article make sense together.

> wild bird populations in the continental U.S. and Canada have declined by 29 percent—or a total net loss of around three billion birds—since 1970.

> between 365 million and one billion birds die each year across the U.S. as a result of window strikes.)

> pet felines kill some 2.6 billion birds annually in the U.S. alone.

So ... the total decline over 50 years (~3B) is approximately the same as the annual deaths from cats and windows at somewhere between a quarter and a third of all birds? I think this is one of those cases where uncritically accepting estimates from independent sources who used different methods produces an incoherent picture.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#138

Post by SkipperCat »

rglover wrote: post #131
SkipperCat wrote: post #18

I think this and many of the similar problems plaguing the earth will only be solved with a drastic reduction of people on the planet. Get the population down to 1 or 2 billion of us and a lot of these issues go away. Deforesting, not an issue if the demand for lumber is cut down by 80%. Same for coal, oil, paving, lithium... It all gets solved with just less people. 8 billion people is just too much, even if we all…

"To be fair, the others just aren't as important as me . Therefore, we should find a way to...shall we say, flush the excess." Read in this voice: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G19B7lTgwCE

I'd say we should educate people about the value of family planning to steer the world to a better place. Don't know why so many people here think getting the population down requires atrocities.

I think if the world really got behind this, we could get the population down in 3 or 4 generations.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#139

Post by charcircuit »

cmurf wrote: post #113
karaterobot wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disagree with this. According to this article, birds aren't dying off because people choose the almighty dollar, they're dying because they smash into windows or are hunted by cats. The solution isn't to examine our relationship to abstractions versus reality, it's to put a screen on the window so the bird will notice it in time.

And make outdoor cats illegal. An unpopular opinion no doubt. But from nature photographers to veterinarians, the outdoor cat is not good for anyone, including the cat.

>including the cat

But my cat likes going outside. He likes catching birds.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#140

Post by helmholtz »

photochemsyn wrote: post #129
karaterobot wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disagree with this. According to this article, birds aren't dying off because people choose the almighty dollar, they're dying because they smash into windows or are hunted by cats. The solution isn't to examine our relationship to abstractions versus reality, it's to put a screen on the window so the bird will notice it in time.

That's not what the original paper says. This is why you want to read the actual scientific paper and not the article about it. The researchers, in the article's text, state: > "Steep declines in North American birds parallel patterns of avian declines emerging globally (14, 15, 22, 24). In particular, depletion of native grassland bird populations in North America, driven by habitat loss and more toxic pesticide use…

Brilliant, thank you for that effort, especially the direct link to the PDF. A third of the bird population gone in the 50 years since 1970. As he says in Blood Diamond, "Will god ever forgive us for what we've done to each other? ..." The future is here and the future bites.
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