Live data from Hacker News

Bird populations declining fast across North America

emagazine.com

121–130 of 322 posts

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#121
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Within the context of a Model. Models that don’t capture the very large scale effects are useless and therefore not worth talking about. What’s left is models that used to capture large scale effects and all the smaller effects that where never captured by the model.

This sounds more like an argument for systems design. You can easily build models and meta-models that help navigate various scopes. For example the concept of the long tail is by definition a widely-scoped way of gaining leverage in a situation where smaller details are important. Traffic control systems, computer hardware design...these all incorporate the same combinations of depth and breadth of thinking. I think…

It’s not a question of excluding the model, it’s a question of the feedback loop where the model is used to both inform your decisions and validate they where correct.

Goodhart's law is an adage often stated as "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure"

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#122
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disagree with this. According to this article, birds aren't dying off because people choose the almighty dollar, they're dying because they smash into windows or are hunted by cats. The solution isn't to examine our relationship to abstractions versus reality, it's to put a screen on the window so the bird will notice it in time.

And make outdoor cats illegal. An unpopular opinion no doubt. But from nature photographers to veterinarians, the outdoor cat is not good for anyone, including the cat.

Our door cats have existed for millennia. Pesticides have not. I don’t think outdoor cats are the problem. Pesticides have killed most of the bug biomass in the last several decades and now birds are being affected.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#123
>pet felines kill some 2.6 billion birds annually in the U.S. alone.

How many of those birds are old/ill? I find it strange to say the least that all those studies lack such an important information. May be because providing such information would mean completely different conclusion - there are billions of birds getting old/ill yearly that predators normally would take of. There are only cats left around humans, so they perform that highly necessary job.

There are another human companions - rats - who raid bird nests for eggs. Outdoor cats help control the rat population.

There is a reason that for example a farm with a bunch of outdoor cats would have a bustling bird population. The same about several areas with large feral cat colonies that i know of - the birds are thriving there, in particular because various egg raiders don't get to walk there freely.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#124
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disagree with this. According to this article, birds aren't dying off because people choose the almighty dollar, they're dying because they smash into windows or are hunted by cats. The solution isn't to examine our relationship to abstractions versus reality, it's to put a screen on the window so the bird will notice it in time.

And make outdoor cats illegal. An unpopular opinion no doubt. But from nature photographers to veterinarians, the outdoor cat is not good for anyone, including the cat.

Bob cats, mountain lions, etc used to have the entire US as their range. I suspect the bird population boomed after we got rid of the cats (100-150 years ago). Now that we have house cats they’re dropping again.

Boom-bust cycles for animals are common. I try to reflect what the natural order was 10,000 years ago and reflect. 20,000 years ago, there was an ice sheet over North America - ie no birds.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laurentide_Ice_Sheet

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is especially true when you prop up that predator's existence by feeding it (and not letting its population remain harmonious with available food supply/prey). Yeeeeeeah but that’s true of all human cultivation of animals, including bees, cows, and tilapia. I mean I’m also not sure what you’re getting at with the feeding of cats thing. I don’t know anybody that’s like hardcore pro-feral cat. Most people just h…

an indoor cat should be killing 0; not a range of 0-1.

Should be. But cats get loose. Some escape. Calamity ensues. The primary issue is probably not house cats but our destruction of natural habitats. Ducks can’t land and swim on top of a Starbucks.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#126
post #5

Until human society stops serving abstractions (like money) over things that are real, then real things will continually face consequence. These will still over into our lives in a multitude of ways until we no longer have real systems to support these abstractions. Loss of natural life is such a failure. Today we speak of stock markets, governments, businesses. Someday, our main concern will not be these shared drea…

Disagree with this. According to this article, birds aren't dying off because people choose the almighty dollar, they're dying because they smash into windows or are hunted by cats. The solution isn't to examine our relationship to abstractions versus reality, it's to put a screen on the window so the bird will notice it in time.

He didn't say money, he said like money.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#127
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Disagree with this. According to this article, birds aren't dying off because people choose the almighty dollar, they're dying because they smash into windows or are hunted by cats. The solution isn't to examine our relationship to abstractions versus reality, it's to put a screen on the window so the bird will notice it in time.

And make outdoor cats illegal. An unpopular opinion no doubt. But from nature photographers to veterinarians, the outdoor cat is not good for anyone, including the cat.

I blame online communities for this.

Cat ladies are insane and organized now. In my city, there’s a group distributing shelters and placing them in various outdoor areas to keep feral cats alive over the winter.

They are as nutty as the pigeon feeders, except the cats kill everything in sight.

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#128
post #55

the single most terrifying experience of my life has been to read biology conservation articles these last two years, coupled with my increasing understanding of climate change (literature). we often forget that ecosystems (that we barely understand) provide us with crucial benefits and should be considered as (like many planetary scientists say) Life Support Systems . if there remain historians a century from now, i…

I suspect you might be experiencing the classic freshman medical student syndrome. The papers (or medical studies) need to be contextualised, and that contextualisation takes lots more of knowledge than just reading some papers casually. Instead, I suggest reading IPCC reports. While quite stark and damning, they provide context for the predictions and balance speculation out, so you don't get "we're all going to die…

i have a PhD in theoretical physics (done in the same building where one of the core IPCC group is located) and been doing three postdocs in computational engineering and computer science. i am working my weekends to change career in order to tackle these issues. i did read (and summarised for my colleagues) the IPCC report (AR6 WG1) during my holidays.

i am however grateful of your comments on how to improve my approach of the literature!

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#129
post #5

Until human society stops serving abstractions (like money) over things that are real, then real things will continually face consequence. These will still over into our lives in a multitude of ways until we no longer have real systems to support these abstractions. Loss of natural life is such a failure. Today we speak of stock markets, governments, businesses. Someday, our main concern will not be these shared drea…

Disagree with this. According to this article, birds aren't dying off because people choose the almighty dollar, they're dying because they smash into windows or are hunted by cats. The solution isn't to examine our relationship to abstractions versus reality, it's to put a screen on the window so the bird will notice it in time.

That's not what the original paper says. This is why you want to read the actual scientific paper and not the article about it. The researchers, in the article's text, state:

> "Steep declines in North American birds parallel patterns of avian declines emerging globally (14, 15, 22, 24). In particular, depletion of native grassland bird populations in North America, driven by habitat loss and more toxic pesticide use in both breeding and wintering areas (25), mirrors loss of farmland birds throughout Europe and elsewhere (15). Even declines among introduced species match similar declines within these same species’ native ranges (26). Agricultural intensification and urbanization have been similarly linked to declines in insect diversity and biomass (27), with cascading impacts on birds and other consumers (24, 28, 29). Given that birds are one of the best monitored animal groups, birds may also represent the tip of the iceberg, indicating similar or greater losses in other taxonomic groups (28, 30)."

This points to agricultural pesticides having impacts on insect populations, and additionally this mirrors where losses have been most extreme, in grasslands most impacted by agricultural activity:

> "Across breeding biomes, grassland birds showed the largest magnitude of total population loss since 1970—more than 700 million breeding individuals across 31 species— and the largest proportional loss (53%); 74% of grassland species are declining. (Fig. 1 and Table 1)."

I've made it a habit to always seek out the original paper instead of just reading the 'science journalism' take on it, for reasons like this.

https://www.flatheadaudubon.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/R...

Re: Bird populations declining fast across North America

#130
post #37

Maybe this is related to declines in insect populations? I mean, if birds eat insects and there aren't as many insects, you'd expect there to be less birds as well.

Have read that the decline in insects in rippling across the ecosystem. Here's an article in this issue in birds: https://abcbirds.org/blog/insect-freefall/
Post reply on HN