Americans overestimate social mobility in their country • Hacker News Board

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#111

Post by csallen » Mon, Dec 13, 2021, 2:55 AM UTC

inetknght wrote: post #102

csallen wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why should 1 out of 5 people belong to a group so wealthy that saying mobility is difficult should be considered problematic? Why is it a bad thing that so many people are so wealthy? The more people who belong to the so-wealthy-it's-hard-to-achieve group, the better.

> Why is it a bad thing that so many people are that wealthy? In the USA's case: for every one person who is that wealthy there are dozens of people struggling to put food on the table.

12% of Americans struggle from food insecurity. By definition, 20% of Americans are in the top quintile. I'm with you, I want that first number to be as close to 0% as possible. But it's mathematically untrue that there are dozens of Americans starving for every American in the top 20%. In fact, there are barely half as many.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#112

Post by BLKNSLVR » Mon, Dec 13, 2021, 2:55 AM UTC

vmception wrote: post #103

twobitshifter wrote: post #95

I think the first step is to admit we have a problem. People don’t like the United States being labeled as anything less than exceptional. If you look at the Amazon workers, Uber drivers, door dashers, etc in this country it’s amazing how hard people can work and not get ahead. 2nd and 3rd jobs can be necessary to just make ends meet. The story that hard work is all it takes in America does need to be questioned.

Talk with any patriotic person and you'll quickly notice that American exceptionalism relies on comparing the United States to the worst countries in the world and ignoring the existence of other developed nations. Eventually followed by "well at least we can talk about it, unlike " and so therefore all indiscretions must be absolved and ignorable since we have the "unique" ability to criticize the government at all,…

"Yeah, well Liberia also rejected the metric system".

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#113

Post by carabiner » Mon, Dec 13, 2021, 2:55 AM UTC

twobitshifter wrote: post #95

I think the first step is to admit we have a problem. People don’t like the United States being labeled as anything less than exceptional. If you look at the Amazon workers, Uber drivers, door dashers, etc in this country it’s amazing how hard people can work and not get ahead. 2nd and 3rd jobs can be necessary to just make ends meet. The story that hard work is all it takes in America does need to be questioned.

It's on HN too. Like most Americans here think that their government is significantly better than the CPC, but lifestyles in both countries are totalitarianism. We have prison camps just like they do.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#114

Post by jollybean » Mon, Dec 13, 2021, 2:55 AM UTC

Swizec wrote: post #60

rpmisms wrote: post #23

Social mobility is very different than economic mobility. It's not hugely difficult to earn six figures in the US if you're committed, work hard, and pick a good field. Heck, I did it without any college. Social mobility is a different story. I was raised in a rural area, which is essentially a social class of its own. Since becoming an adult, I've found myself gravitating towards working-class people. I like the blu…

A few lessons for social mobility I learned while joining the SF techie class, coming here from a relatively poor country in Europe. 1. If Americans can’t read your emotes they put you in a “Uh this feels weird, that person is an emotionless robot” camp. You have to practice 2. It is not okay to ask “What’s that?” when someone proudly mentions which college they went to (because as a European you only recognize 4 or…

To be fair, #5 is kind of trolling. Taxes are not 'charity'.

Also, the 'money talk' thing - that's Anglo, not American, and it's nothing to do with not understanding low income, it's basically avoidance of blunt status bragging, it's considered a bit crude. Which is why you'd have to talk about your investments in order to humble brag.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#115

Post by twoodfin » Mon, Dec 13, 2021, 2:55 AM UTC

dataflow wrote: post #70

jeffbee wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" - [blah blah ignorance] ignored in this analysis" Q1-Q4 mobility is not ignored, it's right there in Table 2 of the paper. For your information the U.S. is also worst among the five studied nations for Q1-Q4 mobility. Furthermore the U.S. is also worst for Q1-Q3. HTH.

The paper isn't linked in the article (I think the parent was referring to the article). I think you're referring to the paper here: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/stantcheva/files/alesina_s... Looking at it myself now, it doesn't seem like the US is all that different from the other countries examined, e.g. US 12.7% Q1->Q4 vs. 12.9% for UK vs. 12.8% for France. For Q1->Q3 it's somewhat higher (18.7% vs. 19.9% for…

Indeed. Some quick digging came up with UK figures from 2019[1]:

Average in Q1: £13,300 Average in Q4: £35,700

For US stats, Googling only got 2018 figures[2]:

Average in Q1: $13,775 Average in Q4: $101,570

So there’s a big absolute distinction hiding behind those similar relative %’s.

[1] https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/work-pay-...

[2] https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/statistics/household-income-...

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#116

Post by xiphias2 » Mon, Dec 13, 2021, 2:56 AM UTC

Don't high earner immigrants skew the results heavily?

When I moved to Switzerland as a software engineer, I was considered a high earner, at the same time I didn't feel high on the social ladder as I was a foreigner.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#117

Post by rpmisms » Mon, Dec 13, 2021, 2:56 AM UTC

mynameishere wrote: post #51

baby wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, survivor bias

Not even that. Just sheltered fool bias.

I was running around my nearest city at age 14, looking for work. I got in fights at bus stops, got mugged once*, slept on benches when I missed a ride a couple of times.

Sheltered, yes, ignorant, no. I know what being hungry is like, I remember how weird it was to wear brand-new clothes.

I'm not complaining, it was all perfectly normal to me at the time, but I'm not talking down at the poors, I'm talking about who I am.

*Mugged once and then learned how not to get mugged. People tried after that, didn't go well.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#118

Post by kbenson » Mon, Dec 13, 2021, 2:56 AM UTC

twobitshifter wrote: post #95

I think the first step is to admit we have a problem. People don’t like the United States being labeled as anything less than exceptional. If you look at the Amazon workers, Uber drivers, door dashers, etc in this country it’s amazing how hard people can work and not get ahead. 2nd and 3rd jobs can be necessary to just make ends meet. The story that hard work is all it takes in America does need to be questioned.

There's a few ways to look at the data. One is that it's harder to move to the top quintile in America than some other countries, and people perceive it's much easier than it in in America compared to those places.

The other is that it's much easier to get out of the lower quintile in America than those same countries.

There's a couple reasons that might be. One is that social mobility is actually higher in America, but there's a ceiling over which it's hard to overcome unless you're born there. Whether that ceiling is immediately under the top quintile or somewhere lower is an interesting question.

Edit: as pointed out, I actually misread the first graph, which is probability of remaining in lowest quintile. So, yeah, data looks like all bad news to me (unless you count those people knowing fairly accurately how fucked they are as a good thing).

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#119

Post by thepasswordis » Mon, Dec 13, 2021, 2:56 AM UTC

Regardless of how much money I make, none of my friends went to Stanford, I grew up in a boring town in a boring part of the world, and I made my money in an “unglamorous” industry.

I could make $10B. I still wouldn’t reach the top level of class. Maybe my kids kids will.

Here’s an attempt to say something positive about this: you guys should try to seek out those unglamorous industries, usually in unglamorous parts of the country, with people who have unglamorous ideas about the world.

Many of them unglamorously PRINT money using 1980s technology and will happily pay you whatever you ask them if you can help them do that more efficiently. There’s a good chance you can, because nobody else is really even trying.

Re: Americans overestimate social mobility in their country

#120

Post by anonfornoreason » Mon, Dec 13, 2021, 2:57 AM UTC

lifeformed wrote: post #86

rpmisms wrote: post #23

Social mobility is very different than economic mobility. It's not hugely difficult to earn six figures in the US if you're committed, work hard, and pick a good field. Heck, I did it without any college. Social mobility is a different story. I was raised in a rural area, which is essentially a social class of its own. Since becoming an adult, I've found myself gravitating towards working-class people. I like the blu…

> It's not hugely difficult to earn six figures in the US if you're committed, work hard, and pick a good field. That's if you also had a healthy learning environment at school and home, can afford college, and have a healthy early development to be able to grow up into an sufficiently smart child. A lot of people in the bottom 20% don't have those initial conditions.

or go into one of the many trades that pay north of $100k with no college education and just provided on the job training.

trades right now that are struggling to find applicants.