Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unfortunately we don't know who the majority owner of this casino is.
We don't need to. It's heavily regulated.
Heavily regulated by whoever can put enough resources to have the majority of computation.
As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?
81–90 of 193 posts
Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?
#82Crypto is like casino tokens. Worth a lot inside the casino. Very limited value outside.
I’m not exactly a proponent of crypto currencies, but this description seems like it holds true for any currency in the world, regardless of whether it’s crypto, fiat or natural. It’s not like you can carry dollars or a nugget of gold and expect any human being anywhere in the world to accept it as legal tender, and as long as that is true every type of payment is dependent on a “casino”, they just vary in size.
Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?
#83Maybe there are a few people who use crypto as real investment but the vast majority is just gambling or FOMO. What actual uses does crypto have other than waiting for it to increase “value”? I bought some magic mushroom spores with BTC but that was the only time I ever used it.
We will see if eventually there will be real use cases but it seems that’s far in the future.
Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?
#84value investing is dead, it’s an attention economy now. the ability for global scale herds of people to coordinate in real time has changed the balance and changed the game
The stock market is certainly behaving this way recently. The RobinHooders and WSB folks are having a hay day right now, but once the big money decides to start changing the game again, they will win.
Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?
#85Simple answer: because it has no fundamental value. Crypto is not an equity or a claim of ownership. Thus the value is solely determined by market speculation. Gambling in crypto may be profitable but it is not an "investment."
There is no such thing as “fundamental value”, because the value of anything is decided at the moment it’s placed into a market.
Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?
#86Earlier quoted context omitted.
This defeats the core idea of having something immutable, that no one can mess with. If you can agree to roll out a new version, why not do it with regular software?
No it does not. Immutable for use doesn't mean it cannot change for example if the title of your house is on the blockchain when you sell it a new immutable transaction referencing your original immutable transaction would be created. Same as rolling out a new version of log4j
Adding a new transaction in a new block (e.g. for a house sale transaction) is different from undoing software issues (log4j, the "DAO hack" on Ethereum). The former is problematic due to the oracle problem, the latter invalidates the concept of the blockchain entirely; it means I could lose the house because a mining/staking majority, or a vocal group on the Ethereum subreddit agreed to "fix" something on the existing blockchain. That such a sacrilegious thing was allowed to happen is evidence that no one cares except to get rich through the coins they got early (or launched themselves).
(Of course there are many more ways I could lose a house that's ledgered on a blockchain, one thing I missed earlier: The impossibility for an individual to operationally secure the secrets for the crypto scheme against theft or loss.)
Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?
#87There is a quote, attributed to Mark Twain and others, which can be adapted to Crypto Currency. A mine is a hole in the ground. The discoverer of it is a natural liar. The hole in the ground and the liar combine and issue shares and trap fools.—Detroit Free Press. https://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/07/19/gold-mine/ And as applied to Crypto Currency:- A crypto currency is a hole in the air. The discoverer of it is a n…
Are you saying that there are no profitable mines in the world?
Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?
#88> The fundamental idea behind investing in a company is that one day they will grow and be so profitable that they will start to send cash back to investors.
Is this really the fundamental idea behind equity investing at this point? My impression is that (a) dividends are becoming more rare and (b) the valuation of dividend-paying equities is not explained solely by dividend cash flow. Does anyone expect Tesla, Amazon, Google to start paying dividends?
The fundamental idea is buy low, sell high, right? Or has that just become the fundamental idea because so much of the market is now part of the same monopoly-money-fueled bubble?
Crypto, AI, green tech, alt meat, electric cars, space stuff… very few of these things are profitable in the traditional sense, so their valuations are instead predicated on the notion that the entire global economy will just flip a switch one day and become a tech utopia, ignoring the fact that the current infrastructure, supply chain and economic system took generations to build. People seem to have baked in the idea that billionaires and governments and greater fools alike will continue to pour money into this indefinitely, but what happens if/when it comes to light that “none of this scales”?
Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?
#89Crypto is like casino tokens. Worth a lot inside the casino. Very limited value outside.
I’m not exactly a proponent of crypto currencies, but this description seems like it holds true for any currency in the world, regardless of whether it’s crypto, fiat or natural. It’s not like you can carry dollars or a nugget of gold and expect any human being anywhere in the world to accept it as legal tender, and as long as that is true every type of payment is dependent on a “casino”, they just vary in size.
There are this things called "Exchanges" in every airport in the world.
With the US dollar, Euro and some others, the world is your casino (following the comparison) and you can trade all of them. Same with gold and silver (although this are a bit harder to trade).
Hell, try to pay a taxi in Djibouti, Sao Paolo or Islamabad with a BTC or USD and see which they'll accept and which will get you kicked out.
Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?
#90Bitcoin is massively, overwhelmingly manipulated by a very small number of actors. The price is a complete fantasy, and exists mostly to transfer money from new investors to those manipulators, and bitcoin miners. There is a lot of money going in. There will not be a lot of money coming out. The money is gone.
Would you mind documenting this claim, please?
There is, of course, no simple guide you can follow to learn all about it, that's kind of the point of scams. You have to keep your ear to the ground and follow what's going on.
But, https://archive.md/DfAwG is a pretty good hint among many. And certainly look at what's going on with Tether.