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As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

fundamentalinvestor.substack.com

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Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#13
Crypto is worthless. All the VCs pouring money into crypto/web3 (a16h, sequoia) are worthless. All the companies pivoting to web3 are worthless (square). All the companies building up web3 teams are worthless (stripe, mastercard). All the fastest growing startups (coinbase, ftx, opensea) are worthless. All the devs who get started in crypto/web3 and won't go back, are worthless.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#14
There is a quote, attributed to Mark Twain and others, which can be adapted to Crypto Currency.

A mine is a hole in the ground. The discoverer of it is a natural liar. The hole in the ground and the liar combine and issue shares and trap fools.—Detroit Free Press. https://quoteinvestigator.com/2015/07/19/gold-mine/

And as applied to Crypto Currency:- A crypto currency is a hole in the air. The discoverer of it is a natural liar. The hole in the air and the liar combine and issue shares and trap fools.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#16

With the methods the author is using, I think they would also be unable to value gold and other non-producing assets. Crypto (despite claims that it's a currency) is a digital "asset". Like gold, but without any real-world use like jewellery, coatings, etc, and with a far shorter history of being a store of value. The problem with valuing it then is due to assessing risk. It could be trading at zero tomorrow, and the…

You also can't take physical possession of it (unlike gold) as well. Crypto value is inherently tied to how secure they are and although they seem to be secure now, that might not actually be the case.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#18

Crypto is worthless. All the VCs pouring money into crypto/web3 (a16h, sequoia) are worthless. All the companies pivoting to web3 are worthless (square). All the companies building up web3 teams are worthless (stripe, mastercard). All the fastest growing startups (coinbase, ftx, opensea) are worthless. All the devs who get started in crypto/web3 and won't go back, are worthless.

I don’t know if you’re serious. Your username does check out at least. I also believe crypto itself is worthless. Only the networks behind them and actually providing a service (transaction validation) have some value. The question is: can the networks survive a crypto crash. How do you pay miners with near zero value crypto? I can see a (sad) future where we will be left with central bank digital currencies only (CBDC).

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#19
post #3

The value of cryptocurrency is 0.

Value is subjective.

For fun, the number of times I saw "you're posting too fast" trying to post this completely obvious and indisputable comment: 12. I'm not actually posting too fast, I'm just in the HN doghouse for posting comments that irritate its most delusional members.

Re: As an investor, why is crypto so hard to value?

#20
Bitcoin is massively, overwhelmingly manipulated by a very small number of actors. The price is a complete fantasy, and exists mostly to transfer money from new investors to those manipulators, and bitcoin miners.

There is a lot of money going in. There will not be a lot of money coming out. The money is gone.

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