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Defund the Police meets the crime wave

bariweiss.substack.com

351–360 of 365 posts

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#351

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That data doesn't show 2021. It only goes up to 2020. You don't have to try very hard to find data that supports a massive uptick in violent crime in 2021. Dozens of cities have reported all-time-high murder rates. Even cities like Philedelphia, which was already pretty high to begin with. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/27/us-murder-ra... I don't think it is due to defunding the police, however. As has…

> Dozens of cities have reported all-time-high murder rates I call bullshit if you're meaning actual cities aka 500k+ people and using rate to mean rate. We're not even remotely close to the 90s.

You are correct. Murders in most cities matched or exceeded their previous records from the 80s or 90s. But the population in most of those cities is almost double.

The population of Portland has increased by 92% since 1987, but the murders just passed the 1987 level.

All that said, murder *rates* across the U.S. have jumped significantly vs 2019. Though they're not yet to their highs from the early 90s.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/12-major-us-cities-top-annual-homi...

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#352
post #79

The police departments can get 100 billion a year and it won't matter when the DA just lets criminals walk after they are arrested. I think that is one of the main factors in the rise of crime and violence. The Waukesha tragedy is a good example of this.

That's the problem here in the Seattle area. First the DA won't charge for many crimes and if they do the judges often don't sentence appropriately

Yeah I'm in the Portland area. It is not going well...

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#353
post #320
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actual instances of police funding being reduced are so rare that the author reaches for incidents of low police-citizen interaction following controversial police-on-citizen violence as evidence of what a straw-man version of "defund the police" advocates for. "Defund the police" has to be the most poorly conceived political slogan of all time. It sounds more like a pejorative its opponents came up with.

> Actual instances of police funding being reduced are so rare I'm not sure what you mean by rare, but many major cities did proceed with reducing police funds: "New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Seattle, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Baltimore and a dozen other cities have all also reduced police spending. " https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/07/us-cities-de...

Aside from the author saying so, I don't see any data in the linked article supporting that LAPD funding has been reduced. Moreover, a quick search seems to indicate that LAPD received a funding increase in 2021.

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#354
post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"How could there be any evidence of that?" Studies, surveys, anything at all to back up your claim. Sounds like there isn't (use of absolutes in your statement was probably the problem). "Non-life threatening situations that have absolutely no need for someone with a gun to respond." Depends on one's perspective and a bunch of other factors. You might be surprised about how many people carry guns in various professio…

> Studies, surveys, anything at all to back up your claim. Sounds like there isn't (use of absolutes in your statement was probably the problem). Most people are generally capable of reading that as an opinion absolute statement. Like, if I said 'Casino Royale is the best James Bond movie of the Daniel Craig era' that's an absolute statement but the reader can intuitively understand that its not going to be objective…

"Now, if I said 'It's a fact that....' it'd be fair to ask for evidence. But I didn't."

Then there's no reason to discuss this. Based on the rest of the comment, you are not listening to what I'm saying, nor are you offering anything to back up any opinions. It's a matter of temporal response time within spacial constraints. Specialization and limitations of labor means that you need to drastically increase headcount to maintain current surface levels, which is more expensive even if a significant subset is currently cheaper (non-union police are cheaper, but once these public sector unions unionize, costs go up significantly). Then you still have questions about efficacy of the replacements (mental health pros don't have a great track record without patient history in these situations) and the fact that you still need to provide training to the existing force due to their exposure to these events either spontaneously or through misclassification. It also sounds like you have some odd and unexplained bias against armed people (in many states, the people you're adding can be and currently are armed even if it's not a part of their job).

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has an incarceration rate nearly 20 times that of Japan.

Why do you think that is? Would you be willing to accept one of the reasons being a culture which is more tolerant of criminal behavior?

I don't know why that is but it is clearly not because they are tolerant of criminal behavior. If the US is more tolerant of criminal behavior wouldn't they have a lower incarceration rate than Japan? If a higher incarceration rate lead to less crime wouldn't the US have less crime than Japan? Clearly our high incarceration rate hasn't fixed criminal behavior. Instead we should look at Japan and other countries with low crime rates to see what they do.

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#356
post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Studies, surveys, anything at all to back up your claim. Sounds like there isn't (use of absolutes in your statement was probably the problem). Most people are generally capable of reading that as an opinion absolute statement. Like, if I said 'Casino Royale is the best James Bond movie of the Daniel Craig era' that's an absolute statement but the reader can intuitively understand that its not going to be objective…

"Now, if I said 'It's a fact that....' it'd be fair to ask for evidence. But I didn't." Then there's no reason to discuss this. Based on the rest of the comment, you are not listening to what I'm saying, nor are you offering anything to back up any opinions. It's a matter of temporal response time within spacial constraints. Specialization and limitations of labor means that you need to drastically increase headcount…

Simply put, demands for evidence where none is required derail conversations. By trying to re-orient the conversation toward a debate, you are stifling any kind of contemplative progress. Practically, debates of this style are not dialectical and do not pursue synthesis or truth per se. Look around HN at any hour of any day to see people continually conflate the two. Folks who employ this and related tactics do little more than stroke their superiority complex with logical gotchas.

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#357
post #347

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Studies, surveys, anything at all to back up your claim. Sounds like there isn't (use of absolutes in your statement was probably the problem). Most people are generally capable of reading that as an opinion absolute statement. Like, if I said 'Casino Royale is the best James Bond movie of the Daniel Craig era' that's an absolute statement but the reader can intuitively understand that its not going to be objective…

"Now, if I said 'It's a fact that....' it'd be fair to ask for evidence. But I didn't." Then there's no reason to discuss this. Based on the rest of the comment, you are not listening to what I'm saying, nor are you offering anything to back up any opinions. It's a matter of temporal response time within spacial constraints. Specialization and limitations of labor means that you need to drastically increase headcount…

> Based on the rest of the comment, you are not listening to what I'm saying, nor are you offering anything to back up any opinions.

I'm listening to what you're saying, it's just incorrect.

> Specialization and limitations of labor means that you need to drastically increase headcount to maintain current surface levels, which is more expensive even if a significant subset is currently cheaper (non-union police are cheaper, but once these public sector unions unionize, costs go up significantly).

Why do we do any specialization in the labor force then? What's the point? After all, specialization only increases labor costs.

Or, perhaps specialized labor is more efficient, which is why it exists. An LEO is by far the most expensive person you could have respond to a situation and they aren't particularly effective at most of the situations they are called to.

You could replace huge chunks of your inefficient armed staff and increase the head count while not increasing costs. For Portland, our unarmed PS3 position is a little more than 1/2 the cost of an entry level armed LEO. That means we can have almost two of them for every one cop. We could have more people out on the street. More people helping out, having eyes in the community and generally being useful. As an added bonus, non-armed staff are more useful to the community because a huge chunk of the community is terrified of police and wont call them or communicate with them making them effectively useless in certain neighborhoods.

> Then you still have questions about efficacy of the replacements (mental health pros don't have a great track record without patient history in these situations)

Yikes, you want to talk about track records

"People with Untreated Mental Illness 16 Times More Likely to Be Killed By Law Enforcement"

https://www.treatmentadvocacycenter.org/key-issues/criminali...

Mental health professionals are far far far far far more qualified to safely help someone who is experiencing a crisis.

> and the fact that you still need to provide training to the existing force due to their exposure to these events either spontaneously or through misclassification.

The mild amount of training they get is fine. If they encounter someone in mental health crisis, they should disengage immediately and call for someone who is trained to handle that situation.

> It also sounds like you have some odd and unexplained bias against armed people (in many states, the people you're adding can be and currently are armed even if it's not a part of their job).

Guns make almost every single situation worse. I'm not sure my 'bias' is odd. Most of developed world recognizes that guns are terrible and that people walking around with them is a pretty dumb idea. The USA just has a fetish for making boom boom with them so we live with our school shootings, mass shootings, and frequent accidental deaths.

I'm not aware of any governmental agency that lets their staff bring guns to work when it isn't part of their job. Would you care to provide a source? Even the gutter backwater of Texas doesn't allow them.

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#358
Read: priveleged person gets mad when the structure that provides that privelege gets dismantled.

Like seriously. You're scared that there are gunshots and people dying in your neighborhood? Are you scared for the people in the projects who have been living like that for years? Where is this "effective police force" for those people?

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#359
post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I did see that, but the author doesn't claim to have been there, or claim that his "nanny" saw the perpetrator, or indeed claim that he was able to find any information about the crime from any other source. So I think he's just guessing about how this sort of thing happens. And, maybe I'm unreasonably reasoning from stereotypes here, but I think maybe a guy named "Leighton Woodhouse," who describes himself as a "pro…

That's certainly possible. I didn't see it mentioned as being a drive-by either. Usually that's treated almost like a buzz word people like to throw in a headline. Either way, I guess the data isn't there for us to ever know.

Maybe nobody saw the shooter?

Re: Defund the Police meets the crime wave

#360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of what criminal think - armed citizen has much higher chance to survive the attack. If criminals expect people to be armed - they'll move on to easier targets.

> armed citizen has much higher chance to survive the attack. That’s objectively wrong and goes against every single study on the subject. The best overall strategy for survival is to be cooperative and not surprise the attacker. Armed victims have a lower chance of survival because, again, they are not expecting the attack. If the victim starts a reaction, they usually get shot.

Please understand that the robberies and crimes are flourishing in the cities where citizens are not allowed to protect themselves and local judicial system coddling criminals. And criminals ARE WELL AWARE of that.

When every single citizen CAN be carrying a gun - the criminal WILL think twice before engaging in stupidity. If not the victim, then the random bystander or nearby family member can make a colander out of criminal engaging in active crime.

When possibility of this is present and political and legal system is supportive to keep our streets clean - the crime will cease or be reduced to minimal levels.

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