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Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

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Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#101
post #81
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yup, this is a massive strategic blunder of historical scale. While the US and western countries are asleep at the switch and think that they are exploiting cheap Chinese labor, the Chinese have a 100- and 500- year plan and are exploiting our myopia for short-term profits to gain manufacturing expertise and military advantage. It may not be too late to reverse, but it is close. It is really the result of not thinkin…

A 100- and 500- year plan is ludicrous on it's face. They don't even credibly hit their 5 year plans a lot of the time. The idea of planning something so large and complex so far into the future seems like wishful thinking at best.

“In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.” — Dwight D. Eisenhower

"No plan survives the first shot of the battle".

So, sure, the plans will likely not survive in any detail even a decade from now.

But the fact that they are making plans, attempting to understand the considerations of those future generations, understand what strategic goals need to be worked on now to help that, and more — this is critical.

I contrast, western politics and decision making tends to focus on considerations that are at best hot for the next election cycle.

And notice that the US is not now trying to return manufacturing home because of long-term plans, but because the people noticed that the bargain of cheap goods from China doesn't mean much when you exported the job. The fact that China now makes and has access to key components in some key military systems and that needs to be reversed barely enters the mind of the electorate.

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#102
post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I miss VB. it was really easy to use. There are tools out there but you have to pay every month for them.

What is preventing you to use VB.NET with WinForms? Still out there.

Yeah. I know VB gets a lot of derision in these parts, but Visual Studio community edition is free, and .NET is free. So it's totally free to write applications with.

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#103
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been programming since... well... technically since I was a kid in the 1980s and professionally since 1998. I think several areas have regressed quite a bit. The biggest one by far is desktop GUI programming. From the late 1980s until the mid-2000s GUIs had all kinds of standardized visual cues, context sensitive help, UIs usable by both mouse and keyboard, standard interface designs across apps, data binding, a…

That's not a problem of the craft however, it's a problem of the culture. We are perfectly capable of writing native GUIs, and we have powerful tools for it as well. QTDesigner comes to mind as a well known example. The problem is, about 12 years ago, application design went through a gameification and "toy-i-fication" phase, from which it has yet to recover, because suddenly, everything had to look like it was desig…

It is a culture problem, but it goes back before phones and Javascript.

Even before that, application design was usually terrible. Apps were almost universally ugly. Developers just aren't very good at it; it's not in their skill sets. They're good at making apps fast and small, but not at making them usable.

Rare companies would hire separate designers, and the apps could be functional and attractive, but they were the exception. It was a lot of money for something generally considered ancillary.

Browser-based apps get to leverage the work done by browser makers, who put in the effort to make toolkits that looked nice by default. They're not small or fast -- though Moore's Law has made them usable anyway. They also favor the things that designers like -- including not overwhelming the user with dense information. You can still use them badly, but by default any programmer can make an app that isn't awful.

There never was a golden age when developers made good, small, fast apps. It was usually a "pick two" situation, except by spending a lot of money. I'm just as happy to let my battery scream and not cringe at every single app that comes up, and so cheaply that they can give it away or cost dollars rather than tens or hundreds. Others disagree, of course, but I think the market tends to show a heavy thumb on one side of that scale.

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would it? Most new smelting plants today in the US (any built in the last few decades) use a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide as the reducing gases (natural gas primarily as feedstock, but no reason it couldn’t be about 90% hydrogen produced via, say, hydroelectricity or wind). Coal didn’t overtake charcoal for smelting iron in the US until the latter half of the 19th century, well after the first industrial r…

I think that vastly underestimates the dependency tree in modern society. Storing hydrogen in useful quantities is tough, requiring fairly sophisticated metallurgy and cryogenics. Finding out we've got a hard to replace left-pad module somewhere far up the tech tree wouldn't be fun.

The dependency tree of 19th Century or early 20th century society is a lot more straightforward, however.

And no, you don't need such sophistication for storing useful amounts of hydrogen. Storing large amounts of hydrogen (in this case, also mixed with poisonous CO) was solved in the beginning of the 19th Century (well, late 18th century) in Britain and Germany by using very large near-atmospheric storage vessels called Gas Holders: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_holder

Salt caverns can also be used for greater volumes, i.e. for seasonal storage, as are already used for hydrogen storage in a few places in the US and elsewhere. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underground_hydrogen_storage

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#105
post #82
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Primitive iron smelting was done with charcoal, I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Yeah, I think we switched to coke during the Industrial Revolution not because it's a better fuel than charcoal, but because we were running out of trees.

Coke was Abraham Darby's doing (around 1709-1710), and that was mostly to corner the market for cheap pots and kettles. There was no way for the charcoal crowd to compete on iron, and the bronze bunch - the norm for that sort of thing up to that point - was left forever in the dust.

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the interesting possibilities for the Fermi Paradox is the fact that we've wiped out the readily accessible deposits of iron, coal, oil, etc. A second go at the industrial revolution would be much harder, if we regressed that far.

Japan has very low quality iron ores. Yet they turned out (arguably) the best steel swords in the world. Constraints don't always lead to bad outcomes.

Japan definitely produced some of the most beautiful looking swords, and they are extremely impressive given the quality of iron they are forged out of, but I don't think any sane person would choose one to take into battle given any other option.

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#107
Anything new in this that isn't in all the many posts from back in March or so?

Lots of discussion:

9 months ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26435416

5 months ago, around the time this video was originally posted https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27934684

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#108
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

very little from the past survives through to today. I don't think there is any record of this device existing other than the device itself, and mention of it after its discovery in the early 1900s. to some that will be proof that it is not truly an ancient device, and I think that is hogwash. most things just don't last that long, especially paper, which is where mention of the device would be found, if it ever is f…

I don’t doubt it’s ancient. I’m not skeptic from that POV. I do find it curious that such an object would be exist but not have some fanfare around it. I’m sure there’s an explanation that eludes me. Could have been developed in some secrecy for example because it have the people who used it some advantage?

I think naikrovek explained it. We have but a few scraps of information from the ancient world. There might very well have been a fanfare; it might have been a huge deal—and we might still have no record of any mention of it.

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it might be helpful to consider what happened to the dinosaurs. The same could happen to us if we fail to evolve in time... Asteroid hits. Wipes out almost all life. A million years later, the biomass around us will have all been converted to a black ooze (oil), covered by millennia of rock, sediment, and tectonic plates. Eventually future civilized beings who plunder the Earth for our biomass that has been c…

Are you suggesting if the dinosaurs had tried harder to "evolve in time", they could have better survived an asteroid hit? I don't think that's how evolution works. For humans either.

Humans could most certainly survive an asteroid if the humans worked at the technology and industrial capacity to do so. Including technology and industrial capacity involved in redirecting asteroids: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7zdeQ-Uw8k

(To redirect Chixculub would require a MUCH larger capability, probably on the order of 10 million tons in orbit, but that's possible with a fleet of large reusable rockets capable of getting the cost to orbit down to around $10/kg, or equivalent development of in-space resource utilization capacity.)

Re: Antikythera Mechanism: An ancient 'computer' that 'shouldn't exist' [video]

#110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the interesting possibilities for the Fermi Paradox is the fact that we've wiped out the readily accessible deposits of iron, coal, oil, etc. A second go at the industrial revolution would be much harder, if we regressed that far.

I think it might be helpful to consider what happened to the dinosaurs. The same could happen to us if we fail to evolve in time... Asteroid hits. Wipes out almost all life. A million years later, the biomass around us will have all been converted to a black ooze (oil), covered by millennia of rock, sediment, and tectonic plates. Eventually future civilized beings who plunder the Earth for our biomass that has been c…

Coal and oil formation would not occur due to lifeforms able to digest trees. It would be extraordinarily difficult to reset to those primordial conditions. I don't think an asteroid hit could do it.
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