Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant • Hacker News Board

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#421

Post by repler » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 4:28 PM UTC

podgaj wrote: post #225

podgaj wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thinking seriously about this, I will ask, were these different dosages a work of collusion between these companies and the government because they were so unsure of the reaction and efficacy at a specific dose? Was it, in effect, a huge "clinical trial"? Between Pfizer and Moderna what is the difference other than dose? Didn't they use the same mRNA? So what was the science behind them choosing different doses? Were…

If someone could answer my question with a logical response instead of just down voting it I would appreciate it because it is a serious question I am trying to understand about the vaccines. I am debating on getting a booster but I have a risk profile that makes this more of an issue for me. So, what was the science behind the different doses? Does anyone know if Pfizer and Moderna used different mRNA?

NYTimes has some pretty great explainers:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/moderna-covi... https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/pfizer-biont...

I don't think they are paywalled. Worth a read.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#422

Post by ptaipale » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 4:29 PM UTC

jerf wrote: post #362

mentat wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Remain obsessed" with transmission of a highly contagious virus that has shown significant ability to mutate at scale? That sure seems worth being obsessed about. When it mutates to spread past all current defenses then consistently kill because we failed to stop current spread it will indeed be "depressing".

"a highly contagious virus that has shown significant ability to mutate at scale" That doesn't uniquely describe COVID. It describes pretty much every virus you have heard of. The gradient for viruses trends strongly towards trading severity for contagiousness. They do not generally "mutate past all defenses and kill", the generally "mutate past defenses and give slight to non-existent symptoms", for several reasons,…

This theory of "killing means they can't spread anymore" doesn't really work out with diseases like sars-cov2. It might have worked in a medieval world where people travel by foot, horseback or sailboat, and with a disease where the carrier stays contagious forever.

But we are in a modern world where travel around the globe happens in 24 hours. Covid is contagious for some time before the patient has any symptoms, and for most people, it stops being contagious by the time some of the carriers are so sick they might die.

So, when a patient starts having symptoms in 5 days, (s)he may have had time to infect other people on more than two continents.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#423

Post by teknofobi » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 4:29 PM UTC

dolni wrote: post #373

dragontamer wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is exactly the problem with pandemic messaging There's two parts to the pandemic. Gathering information, and spreading information. You need to spread the currently known things, so that scientists know what else to look for. Welcome to the world of science and learning. You know one thing, and then it changes as new tests come in. Its impossible to get to the truth from the beginning in one step.

On the contrary -- welcome to the world trust building. If you only know one thing, you keep your mouth shut until you know more. And if the thing you know isn't actually known, like how effective the vaccine really is, that goes double. Notice that doesn't require you to "know the truth from the beginning in one step." It requires the people in charge to show some restraint. You only get so many opportunities to be…

Damned if you do, and damned if you don’t.

> And if the thing you know isn't actually known

Who do you want to be the arbiter that gatekeeps this information and decides the science is strong enough that you “actually know”?

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#424

Post by mrtksn » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 4:29 PM UTC

throwaway2037 wrote: post #411

mrtksn wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does anyone have a list where BionTech distributes directly? It's Germany and Turkey. In a press release earlier this year[0], BioNTech described their relationship with Pfizer and they listed the countries it covers. Also, for China they have another company instead of Pfizer. Why Germany and Turkey, you may ask? Well, the inventors and founders of the company are Turkish immigrants to Germany. So they are able to…

You wrote: > I double checked on Wiki. There are two founders -- husband and wife. While both have Turkish heritage, only one is a Turkish immigrant. To be fair, I agree with the overall sentiment of your comment! Husband: Uğur Şahin was born in Turkey, and immigrated to Germany at age 4 Wife: Özlem Türeci was born in Germany. Her parents immigrated to Germany from Turkey. If anyone is interested to learn more about…

They are part of the Turkish diaspora in Germany. Wouldn’t know about the exact birth details but they played substantial role in the vaccination program in Turkey.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#425

Post by anoonmoose » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 4:31 PM UTC

the_doctah wrote: post #398

anoonmoose wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither are COVID shots, what's your point?

My point is that this glowing report is from the same company trying to collude with governments to force the vaccines. It may be "optional" for some people (not at my company if I want to keep my office job!), but they sure are trying hard to change that. And you know that, which makes your statement disingenuous.

there's no need for the scare quotes around "optional", its still optional regardless of how much fearmongering and conspiracy stuff you spew

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#426

Post by nullc » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 4:31 PM UTC

TechBro8615 wrote: post #418

nullc wrote: post #383

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Hospitalization and death numbers are definitely directly connected There has never been a RCT which showed covid vaccination reduces mortality. I believe they do but this has not been rigorously shown. Unfortunately, even though we've had gigantic RCTs on covid none of them showed statistically significant covid-mortality in the unvaccinated population (potentially due to prescreening eliminating people who were a…

If anyone wants more details, I assume you’re referencing this recent blog. If you haven’t seen this, you’ll love it because it makes the same argument: https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/12/possible-syst...

Hadn't seen that! but, indeed, it's the same point.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#427

Post by ptaipale » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 4:32 PM UTC

TechBro8615 wrote: post #292

soared wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a weird way to phrase your second paragraph, considering hospitals have been close to full very recently in parts of the us. https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-utilization

Hospitals are not designed to be empty, though. So you can’t just point to 80% full ICU beds and say a hospital is overwhelmed. Is there any data showing ICU beds filled above carrying capacity? Or number of patients transferred to a different hospital due to bed shortage?

Even in countries with fairly good covid situation (I'm in Finland) we are going to see excess mortality over the coming years, because right now as we speak, elective operations for heart surgeries and cancer operations are being postponed in order to make room for covid patients.

ICU wards are designed for normal operations at near-full capacity. Maintaining a large-scale vacant ICU capacity is both uneconomical and operationally very difficult (because ICU treatment skills are highly specific and learning, maintaining and updating them requires one to be working on the area).

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#428

Post by bluGill » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 4:32 PM UTC

nahqz wrote: post #358

toyg wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is absolutely no way to stop the spread forever. Well, there is, we just don't want to pay for it: vaccinating poor countries, where effectively the mutations are being created by high infection rates.

The vaccine hasn't stopped spread in rich countries, why would it do so in poor countries? Also there haven't been enough variants as to determine that most variants are coming from poor countries. Speaking of delta, India has more population than the entirety of Europe. Mathematically it makes sense than a variant could come from there regardless of whether the vaccine does anything.

> The vaccine hasn't stopped spread in rich countries, why would it do so in poor countries?

It has greatly slowed the spread. The highest vaccinated countries have almost stopped it. There is every reason to believe that high vaccination across the world would stop covid, and anything less will ensure continued spread (and mutations).

People demanding an all or nothing from a vaccine are missing the big picture.

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#429

Post by throwaway2037 » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 4:32 PM UTC

sho_hn wrote: post #388

throwaway2037 wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doses of BioNTech vaccine distributed by gov'ts in Hongkong and Macao were manufactored by Fosun Pharma. As vaccination rate has dropped dramatically since the initial rush, I don't know if Fosun Pharma is still manufacturing the BioNTech vaccine. Weirdly, I still don't think any foreign made vaccines are approved in mainland China. Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fosun_Pharma#COVID-19 I cannot find any reference…

> "Fosun Pharma has been licensed by BioNTech to exclusively develop and commercialize COVID-19 vaccines based on its mRNA technology platform in Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong SAR, Macau SAR and Taiwan region." https://investors.biontech.de/news-releases/news-release-det... (2020)

Searching the CDC in Taiwan, I was unable to find any press releases announcing they bought vaccines from Fosun Pharma. Everything I could find said they only received BioNTech vaccines when they were donated. Please correct me if wrong. I assume "Taiwan region" is simply something to satisfy the PRC gov't (CCP) which believes Taiwan is a part of its country and governed by PRC.

TW CDC PR: https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/List/7tUXjTBf6paRvrhEl-mr...

Re: Pfizer and Biontech provide update on Omicron variant

#430

Post by peter422 » Wed, Dec 08, 2021, 4:33 PM UTC

beerandt wrote: post #387

peter422 wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a more recent U.S. study [1], which comes to a different conclusion, and neither of these studies take into account boosters (or a longer delay between shots), which by all accounts improves vaccine effectiveness by ~10x. Being vaccinated and then boosted offers as worst equal protection, probably better, against infection and disease, with much much lower risk of side effects, serious disease, long covid or…

That's an unbelievably poorly designed study, for many reasons. It basically says unvaccinated people who are already or recently sick (with any "covid-like" symptoms) are more likely to go to the hospital once they catch covid (vs vaccinated). (Duh.) Worse, it presumes any of those sick people with respiratory symptoms had natural immunity to covid without any confirmation. So it's not comparing natural immunity to…

Your interpretation of the study is wrong (and probably shows your internal bias in this matter).

I’m not suggesting it is a perfect study, but the methodology makes sense. The point is that if somebody gets hospitalized for covid-like sickness, then they’ll be hospitalized (and trackable), and they hope that is a stable cohort.

So you start with hospitalized patients with covid-like symptoms, then look among them and see who was vaccinated (and when), vs who previously had covid (and when), and then by looking at the percentage of cases caused by covid you are attempting to effectively compare the susceptibility to covid in the broader population. It works as long as the person is getting all of their medical care in your system and you have full tracking of them (which they do in the study).

And again, it isn’t perfect but there is no perfect study for this. And when they redo the study with boosters whatever the result is we know the real world effectiveness of boosters is 10x non-boosted do the results would be even better.