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Update on Omicron

who.int

541–550 of 794 posts

Re: Update on Omicron

#541
post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Talking about vaccine hesitancy in Africa must be accompanied by why there's a certain amount of justification of it and it can be viewed as entirely rational, if also wholly undesirable. Included in that must be the USA's role in creating that problem. A couple of examples quickly turned up with a search engine of which there seem to be far, far too many. I can recall a few not here being reported over the past deca…

I would be surprised if this is the reason. The South African anti-vax arguments I've read were very similar to the anti-vax arguments I hear here. None of them argued the vaccines they're receiving are an experimental vaccines, or that the vaccines are a trick. They seem to mostly seem to have concerns about the actual vaccines similar to western anti-vaxxers.

> They seem to mostly seem to have concerns about the actual vaccines similar to western anti-vaxxers.

You mean the western anti-vaxxers who say it is an experimental vaccine tricking the world into steralizing itself?

Re: Update on Omicron

#542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Countries that pursued zero covid largely avoided hospital overcrowding and massive amounts of preventable death So did countries that didn't.

"Massive amounts of preventable death" Compare Australia vs UK.

>>"preventable death"

Can you define this term for me please? What exactly is a preventable death during a global pandemic and where is the data that measures it?

Re: Update on Omicron

#543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Countries that pursued zero covid largely avoided hospital overcrowding and massive amounts of preventable death So did countries that didn't.

"Massive amounts of preventable death" Compare Australia vs UK.

The ironic thing is Australia really only got it when their zero COVID policies weren't taken seriously enough by its weakest actor who was more into "opening up". For people who don't know Australian politics it was the NSW state.

They avoided COVID delta for months (6+) despite locking all incoming arrivals in shared air hotel quarantine systems and workers coming into the quarantine zone day in and day out (i.e. not taking quarantine seriously quarantine). Some Australian states who had better border control policies were able to keep COVID out indefinitely (e.g. WA, QLD, TAS, SA, etc).

Knowing some people who live in WA, despite overseas travel restrictions, life is pretty much pre-2019. Clubs are open, schools are running, no masks, nothing. They are thankful for zero COVID policies - the biggest one being border control and for some areas dedicated, but well resourced, quarantine facilities (NT). Only recently did NT get cases, and it didn't come internationally, but from the NSW outbreak. It's a concern since the indigenous population there typically have less health facilities.

Of course it is much easier to do this in Australia than the US or UK for a variety of reasons. Europe definitely can't do this IMO - land borders aren't strong enough.

Re: Update on Omicron

#544
post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to argue with you too hard, but I’m also in my 30s and you definitely downplay the “self-interest” angle more than I do. Indeed, I got my shots because I want to “do my part,” and I’m also not particularly worried about personally getting severely sick or dying. But I also just don’t want to get sick at all because getting sick sucks . That’s the same reason I’ve been getting yearly flu shots every year since col…

Mostly agree, but have you considered that perhaps falling sick once in a while allows your immune system to adapt and become more stronger? I mean vaccines have been around for all of 100-200 years...

Vaccines do exactly that, without the discomfort of getting sick. That's the whole damn point of a vaccine: to stimulate the immune system. That's how they work. I just can't understand how people fail to grasp this simple fact.

Re: Update on Omicron

#545
post #499

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do realize that that vaccines are what teaches your immune system to combat diseases, right? Your only "sick" because you didn't pro-actively teach your immune system to handle that flu.

Sure, for diseases we know and are actively fighting (how long was it before we got vaccines for COVID?). My point was that for unknown diseases you might be exposed to in the future you are probably (I say probably, because hey let's not kid ourselves we're all mostly speaking out of our a**s here :)) better off if you had been exposed to milder diseases beforehand.

Getting exposed to one disease does not help you fight another, or at least not any more than getting a vaccine not targeted at the second.

Re: Update on Omicron

#546
post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There do exist viruses that have been virtually eradicated with vaccines, even if they weren't 100% effective (cf Polio). We probably won't eradicate Corona with the first gen vaccines, but that isn't the point anyway. The point ist that we should reduce it enough so that mutations are less likely.

Polio was a different kind of virus, though, with a different kind of vaccine. We never got a vaccine for other coronaviruses either, it's unlikely that we will get it for this. Also, there is solid literature on the fact that vaccines during an epidemic cause stress that induces the virus to mutate. https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org

The main known facilitators for those virus mutations are on one hand the number of contaminations (particularly cross-species but not only), and on the other when the infection lingers in one individual due to a compromised immune system. Considering how at its worst the vaccine reduces the length of the infection, it's entirely implausible that it would also increase the likelihood of mutations. Not impossible, but very implausible. Is there a precedent for this kind of things?

Re: Update on Omicron

#547
post #435
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, there are Zero Covid strategies that work, see China or New Zealand. The problem is just that those measures are so drastic that many countries would probably not accept them. The goal in western countries is to get to the "endemic phase" of the infection - i.e. "live with the virus". That's all well and good, unfortunately this requires the disease to become significantly less deadly than it still is. We're…

> I mean, there are Zero Covid strategies that work, see China or New Zealand. Are we really trusting China's data? They still have less than 100k cases reported. That makes zero sense from what we've seen from other countries. How would they have tracked down every case after it ran rampant for 3 months in a major city?

Was in Shanghai from Sept 2019 - Oct 2020. I'm of Asian descent that speaks Mandarin and has friends in China. I will share my experiences and stuff I know.

For people outside of China, the figures would seem really suspect and unbelievable but if you are/was in China then you will understand why infection rates have been low vs countries outside of East/SE Asia.

Reason one: face masks.

People in Shanghai were wearing them from mid Jan 2020 indoors and outdoors. From about mid May 2020 onwards, less people were wearing them outdoors. When I left in Oct 2020, face masks were still required in public venues like museums and on public transport. From seeing photos that my Chinese friends have sent to me recently, face masks are still required on public transport and everybody wears one. Yes, everybody.

This is in contrast to the London Underground (London is my hometown) where people don't bother even though it is required (as a Condition of Carriage). Now you know why the UK has stupidly high infection rates.. people here don't care about their fellow citizens.

Reason two: health QR code thing on Alipay/WeChat (tracking movements).

If you wanted to get into certain places like museums, you had to show a green QR code which meant you was not in a high risk area of the country with outbreaks. So if you was in say another city like Guangzhou that had an outbreak within the last 14 days, then your QR code would be red and they would refuse you entry. In essence, you were tracked by Alipay or WeChat. I have not asked my Chinese friends if health QR codes are still required.

Reason three: limiting movement of people via lockdowns, etc.

I think China got lucky in that the outbreak during Jan 2020 coincided with Chinese New Year so the majority of migrant workers in cities (外地人) were in their hometowns or villages. In other words, cities like Shanghai were virtually empty. People outside of Shanghai returned around the second half of Feb 2020 (after the Chinese New Year holiday break was extended). This extension limited movement of people at the time and thus the potential spread of the virus.

I was living on campus at a Shanghai university. They locked down the campus from the beginning of March 2020 where you could not leave the campus unless it was an emergency. Only university staff could enter and leave freely. TBH, this was too draconian because it was 'safe' from May 2020 but entry to campus was still restricted! As a result, I found ways to sneak out lol. All universities in Shanghai had lockdowns in case you was wondering.

They also locked down residential estates (小区) during the first few months of 2020. Only residents could enter and all deliveries (parcels, food etc) were left at the front gate for you to collect. They were manned with security guards to check if you lived there.

There have been movement restrictions for people in certain industries, e.g. education. Earlier on this year one of my Chinese friends that works at an international school told me she was not allowed to leave Shanghai when taking annual leave.

Reason four: keeping tabs on who buys medicines for flu or colds

You heard that right. One of the most bizarre things ever. When I wanted to buy medicine for the common cold in a pharmacy, they asked me the reasons for purchase and I had to show my original passport and they entered my details into the computer. This was not required when I bought cold/flu medicines during Autumn (fall) 2019. This red tape was not limited to foreigners, when I didn't have my original passport on me on one occasion, my Chinese friend kindly used her Chinese ID which was scanned.

Reason five: mass testing for just a few cases of COVID

Google the news stories of mass testing at Shanghai Pudong Airport last year, Shanghai Disneyland recently or the outbreaks during this summer.

Reason six: all those that test positive have to be treated in hospital and their homes are disinfected. People that live nearby have to quarantine in a government specified venue and have their homes disinfected.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-59249485

Reason seven: China's borders are still closed with entry restrictions.

Tourists and international students (except from S. Korea) have not been allowed in since early 2020.

Reason eight: quarantine for anybody entering China really early on

The Chinese friend I mentioned above that teaches at a school had to quarantine for around 14 days when she returned to Shanghai from the UK during Feb 2020. Yes mate, Feb 2020. When did the UK government require 14 day self isolation for people entering the UK? June 2020! Too late mate.

This gives you an idea of how serious China has taken COVID-19 to the point of being draconian at times. China didn't want to take chances and took action early last year unlike countries like the UK that dragged their feet until it was too late.

Re: Update on Omicron

#548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a researcher posted a comment here on HN where they said that virus deadliness and contagiousness were in tension. I've heard this statement a lot, and have been rather puzzled by why this must be the case. It's certainly true over a long period of time (a deadly pathogen that will kill off its hosts too quickly will also perish); and it's also certainly true that if a pathogen is very contagious but not deadly it…

> I don't believe there's any molecular mechanism why does it have to be molecular and not just evolutionary? That's what a virus does for a living after all.

I would say it's molecular biology that investigates what the virus actually does; while evolutionary biology is an attempt of explaining, mostly retrospectively, how an organism has changed over time, and possibly what has driven this change. My understanding is that evolutionary biology is kinda like statistics in the sense that it can tell you the distribution of the outcomes of tossing a coin, but it can't tell you whether the next flip of the coin will be the heads or the tails. And what we are usually most concerned about practically is not how the virus will behave over a long period of time, but what the outcome of the next flip will be.

Re: Update on Omicron

#549
post #524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> academic space is...overtly hostile to right wingers... > Why would they trust advice given by people who proclaim their hatred of them? 1. It's all institutions, not just academia. 2. The "right winger" narrative seems to be that everyone is overtly hostile to them (media, academia, Hollywood, scientists, health organizations, voting machine manufacturers, pharma companies, Dr. Fauci, Big Bird, etc.), which appare…

>I do think that poor critical thinking skills, as exemplified in your rationalization here, do play a major role in how we got here though. I love the way you prove my point by immediately going with a barely more civil version of "You're retarded". For the record, I'm both Vaccinated and, in a previous life, was a biomedical researcher, critically evaluating scientific literature was literally my job. I'm mostly on…

You made a bad argument and got called on it. That's as far as it goes. No need to be a victim. No need to double-down with more bad arguments. But, my apologies if I seemed unnecessarily harsh. I don't know you. I was referring to your argument; an argument that rationalizes malignant behavior and happens to be the crux of the problem.

You're more a victim of tribal thinking than you think. You talk almost purely in terms of "sides" and profess to be on my "side" because you agree with me on policy. So, you are surprised when I call out your poorly constructed argument, as if I should have just gone along. That's tribal thinking.

OTOH, you can agree with me on 99 out of 100 issues, but if your position on that one issue makes no sense to me then I'll tell you exactly that. That's not tribal thinking.

Re: Update on Omicron

#550

The omicron variant could be a blessing in disguise if the early stories on how it is less deadly checks out. That means people refuse to get the vaccine shot will be infected with the omicron variant with relatively low consequence and get immunity that way. Btw this is how it suppose to work. The virus has no incentive to kill its host. The variant that is fast spreading and less deadly eventually wins out.

I wonder if you could kind of engineer that. Develop a fast spreading but harmless variant.
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