Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Update on Omicron

who.int

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

501–510 of 794 posts

Re: Update on Omicron

#501

Post by dragontamer »

tomtheelder wrote: post #474
dragontamer wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Delta managed to thread the needle and grow both more deadly and have higher transmission. I'm sure some variant in the future will improve both deadliness and transmission. But there is a low chance that this variant (or any particular variant in general) will accomplish this feat.

Is Delta more deadly? I thought that was not really believed to be the case any more, just that it is much more transmissible. I could totally be wrong though; it's hard to find reliable info.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/delta-variant-has-...

> However, the highest risks were from the Delta variant. In the Delta cases, there was a 108% increase in the risk of hospitalization, a 235% increased risk of ICU admission, and a 133% higher risk of death, compared with the original variant.

Its very rare, but it does happen. Delta is proof of it. But chances are, we won't roll "snake eyes" again on the most recent mutation.

Mutations are random: they can improve, or diminish the virus. Especially on something as important as the spike protein: that is literally the site that binds with our cells. Omicron could be better... or worse... at binding. There's all sorts of questions that are up in the air.

From a policy / scientist point of view, it makes sense to "hope for the best, prepare for the worst". That is: we should react as if its a worst-case scenario mutation, but we need to keep hope until the proof actually comes in.

----

A lot of information will come in the next couple of weeks: I'm sure supercomputers are simulating how this molecule now interacts with our bodies (but those simulations take days or weeks to finish accurately). There are surely trials and science to be done here.

Omnicron is a wakeup-call to the scientific community. But I'm not sure its worthy of being discussed in public yet. There's just not enough information here.

Re: Update on Omicron

#502

Post by throwaway2036 »

Why doesnt anyone take the advice of Robert Malone seriously? Or his colleagues? If COVID were a computer virus, and the man behind it, who happens to specialize in antivirus software, was suddenly discredited very recently after infection of computers worldwide, would his opinion be no longer worthy because he failed to go along with the media/mainstream agenda? A mainstream media who's investors might be the same as other competing antivirus companies?

If he had spent his entire career as a computer scientist/software developer, came up with his own language, would we listen to the 'fact checking' of news outlets when they disregard his experience, when they tell us their unassailable facts about the virus?

Not only himself, but other lifetime software developers of antivirus software, who also risk their careers/tenure over their opinions on a computer virus, which the mainstream media seems to know more about than they do? Is this the first time a government (or any government not just the US) has purposely had an ulterior motive - not due to regard for their citizens, but perhaps due to conflicts of interests of their boards of directors. If the government were a large company, would we be so trusting?

Re: Update on Omicron

#503

Post by seoaeu »

colordrops wrote: post #390
dadjoker wrote: post #229

Dr Angelique Coetzee, chairwoman of the South African Medical Association: “It’s all speculation at this stage. It may be it’s highly transmissible, but so far the cases we are seeing are extremely mild,” she said. “Maybe two weeks from now I will have a different opinion, but this is what we are seeing. So are we seriously worried? No. We are concerned and we watch what’s happening. But for now we’re saying, ‘OK: th…

If it turns out that it is indeed extremely mild, does not cause deaths, and an infection with it confers immunity to covid in general, shouldn't it be allowed to run like wildfire?

In the very unlikely event it actually had a 0.00% death rate that would be the most likely response (because places would lift all their restrictions). The harder question is what to do if it is milder than delta, but still potentially deadly

Re: Update on Omicron

#504

Post by jacquesm »

aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

Spot on. That said, there are a lot of vaccine skeptical people in 3rd world countries as well.

Re: Update on Omicron

#505

Post by JamesBarney »

TheDong wrote: post #498
JamesBarney wrote: post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're talking about herd immunity, you might not be as up to date on the newest variants. We could theoretically reach herd immunity against the original covid-19. But there was no practical way to get to herd immunity with delta without mandating three vaccine shots at gunpoint which would be about as popular as burning Medicare to the ground. With Omikron herd immunity is impossible. 100% vaccinated population…

> With Omikron herd immunity is impossible. 100% vaccinated population wouldn't get us there. But, as the linked page says: > Transmissibility: It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible We do not know enough about Omicron for you to be able to make a statement like that. Do you have a source that has a better understanding than the WHO? In addition, even if there are covid variants that our current va…

It will be weeks until we're certain that Omicron is significantly more transmissible in the uninfected/previously infected/vaccinated groups than Delta.

But lots of preliminary data suggests it will be. That's why Omicron was designated a variant of concern. I think this guy has made a pretty compelling case. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing

What do you think the chances are that Omicron is more than 20% more transmissible among the 1) infected : 85% 2) vaccinated : 80% 3) unvaccinated/uninfected : 75%

Re: Update on Omicron

#506

Post by jacquesm »

raverbashing wrote: post #491
artificialLimbs wrote: post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Catching covid is definitely not safe if you’re in that tiny minority that is strongly affected, mostly because the NIH advice for the infected is currently ‘Wait until it gets bad enough to go to the hospital’.

The "tiny minority" includes obese people, which are which % of Americans again? Though I agree that recommendation to wait is not great.

That's mostly a reflection of available hospital capacity though.

Re: Update on Omicron

#507

Post by logicchains »

exdsq wrote: post #477
logicchains wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Watching the people around me has stirred in me many new questions. Have you ever considered they might have a point? More and more data is coming out, like https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.107... , in the highest-impact cardiology journal, showing that the mRNA vaccines are not particularly "safe" by any reasonable interpretation of the word.

This isn't a peer reviewed study, it's a submitted abstract. The sole name on the paper is someone who sells psudoscience plant-based debunked theories that the majority of our health issues come from lectins. He "authors papers" for Gwyneth Paltrow's weird publications. The guy sells supplements based on his scaremongering research to fringe-groups who like the idea of plant-based medicine, I don't trust his opinion…

>The sole name on the paper is someone who sells psudoscience plant-based debunked theories that the majority of our health issues come from lectins

A professional cardiologist with decades of experience who now runs his own cardiology practice. Do you feel you're more qualified to assess his qualifications than the editors of Circulation just because you read a wikipedia article?

>psudoscience plant-based debunked theories

He has published papers demonstrating health improvements in patients after treatment, which is more than can be said of most supplements. The absence of large RCTs for something does not mean it's been "debunked".

> If there's something to this wait for a real research group to come out and say it - if there's a chance of world-changing science that will happen (would have already happened).

You understand doctors have been fired for questioning the safety of coronavirus vaccines? You understand that publically-funded research groups risk having their funding withdrawn if they question the safety of the coronavirus vaccine?

Re: Update on Omicron

#508

Post by jacquesm »

mattrighetti wrote: post #234
ant6n wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That article is garbage, full of randomly picked data points, not accounting for other variables, blatant misinterpretations and convenient omissions. Anti-vaxxers love posting it.

Can you elaborate more on that? Legitimate question, I came across this a couple days ago on some other thread here on HN.

And that's how this stuff keeps spreading. People who don't really understand what they are passing on passing it on as though it means something to them. If you didn't really understand it, why did you pass it on?

Re: Update on Omicron

#509

Post by jacquesm »

mattrighetti wrote: post #225
xg15 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, there are Zero Covid strategies that work, see China or New Zealand. The problem is just that those measures are so drastic that many countries would probably not accept them. The goal in western countries is to get to the "endemic phase" of the infection - i.e. "live with the virus". That's all well and good, unfortunately this requires the disease to become significantly less deadly than it still is. We're…

New Zealand seems to have abandoned that Zero Covid approach [0] > Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern acknowledged an end to the elimination strategy seven weeks into a lockdown that has failed to halt an outbreak of the Delta variant, announcing that restrictions would be gradually lifted in Auckland, the country’s largest city. > “We’re transitioning from our current strategy into a new way of doing things,” Ms. Ardern…

If other countries had done as well as NZ delta would have never spread in the first place. Attributing NZs failure to how they handled things so far is misrepresentation, they did things by the book, but if other countries keep sending the equivalent of typhoid Mary's into the NZ population then it is a matter of time before the strategy will fail.

If NZ would have kept their borders locked this would have not happened. They will come to regret that decision.

Re: Update on Omicron

#510

Post by artificial »

gus_massa wrote: post #247
artificial wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Different type of disease for starters. No animal reservoirs either and the vaccine is effective with a single dose (and doesn’t require boosters). Perhaps we can focus on more health generally? Diet and exercise to curb the massive obesity in the western world.

The number and type of recommended polio vaccines depends, but the WHO recommends at least four doses: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine#Schedule

Interesting. The CDC[0] in the US (IPOV insert [1]) states a single doze of 0.5ml for children and adults.

[0] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/polio/hcp/composition-dosag... [1] https://www.fda.gov/media/75695/download

Post reply on HN