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Update on Omicron

who.int

471–480 of 794 posts

Re: Update on Omicron

#471
post #359
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's well known it's more infectious, and widely suspected to be more deadly. See both https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/why-is-de... and https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-var...

The problem with these studies is the mild symptom cases may never even be reported as cases, I know alot of people that had covid symptoms but never got tested, and would never get tested unless it got to the point where they needed medical care. So if you just had a "pretty bad" flu and sat at home you likely never got tested, and thus would never show up in these studies Hell I know a couple people that were told…

Both can be true - if you have a variant that is less deadly (but still deadly for some) and it is more transmissible then it will kill more people in absolute numbers. Also it can overwhelm hospitals, cuaing additional deaths and injuries (due to late treatment or treatment errors).

Re: Update on Omicron

#472

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

I think this will happen until a variant that's less deadly but more contagious burns through the population and leaves a trace of immunity.

Re: Update on Omicron

#473

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

The fact that this has been discovered in Africa doesn’t mean that it originated there in the first place. > Several scientists said they suspected that the variant had been spreading undetected in countries with lackluster sequencing efforts before it surfaced in Botswana and South Africa, giving it more time to scatter globally. Nevertheless, European nations did not find the variant until after South Africa alerte…

It doesn't prove it originated there but all of the evidence points that it doing so.

Also [1] doesn't mention what countries the diplomats were coming from my guess would be an African country.

Re: Update on Omicron

#474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease compared to infections with other variants, including Delta. I thought this was weirdly worded. It's also not clear whether Omicron disease is less severe, either, right? A long time ago, long before the pandemic politicized messaging so much, a researcher posted a comment here on HN where they said that virus deadliness and contagiousness…

Delta managed to thread the needle and grow both more deadly and have higher transmission. I'm sure some variant in the future will improve both deadliness and transmission. But there is a low chance that this variant (or any particular variant in general) will accomplish this feat.

Is Delta more deadly? I thought that was not really believed to be the case any more, just that it is much more transmissible. I could totally be wrong though; it's hard to find reliable info.

Re: Update on Omicron

#475
post #435
post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, there are Zero Covid strategies that work, see China or New Zealand. The problem is just that those measures are so drastic that many countries would probably not accept them. The goal in western countries is to get to the "endemic phase" of the infection - i.e. "live with the virus". That's all well and good, unfortunately this requires the disease to become significantly less deadly than it still is. We're…

> I mean, there are Zero Covid strategies that work, see China or New Zealand. Are we really trusting China's data? They still have less than 100k cases reported. That makes zero sense from what we've seen from other countries. How would they have tracked down every case after it ran rampant for 3 months in a major city?

As a westerner living in mainland China, I might be able to weigh in on this. China's data does indeed look hard to believe from basically anywhere outside of China (and New Zealand). I don't expect to sway anyone who doesn't want to be swayed.

But I can say this: (a) there really is a pervasive nationwide effort to track and trace, which affects everybody and everything, and (b) the minor outbreaks that do happen get shard pretty faithfully on social media -- even if there is also censorship, it seems it's not as fast as the grassroots spread of news.

Re: Update on Omicron

#476

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

Totally agree, and it's the macro version of what I realised after having a discussion with a co-worker who's begrudgingly getting the vaccine, but is against being 'forced' to do it. I understand the negative reaction to any authority figure forcing something, and I react negatively, to the point of using technical workarounds, to Australia's metadata retention rules and other privacy-related political BS. Living in…

> 1. If COVID sticks around, ... we'll be getting into that 'vulnerable' category. When that happens, how will you feel about large groups of 'kids' ... protesting getting vaccinated against a disease that may be very mild for them but fatal for you?

1. I, personally, would not care about it in the slightest. If the current "response", dictating that I should fixate on this one thing, and, more importantly, strictly controlled and prosecuted if not fixated enough, holds any longer I simply won't be around in 10yrs. My "life score" is satisfying to me as it is, any day of life under lockdown, curfew, mask, vaccine mandates only subtracts from it. So I'm looking to "cut my losses" soon, so to speak.

2. It may also mean that "we" failed to give these "kids" proper upbringing. I, certainly, did fail. When the panic started our son, 16 at the time, one day wanted to casually go to the shops to buy some junk. Suggestion that maybe it is better to minimise the cumulative number of shop visits because of this new unknown virus out there, and get your chips and coke once a week in bulk rather than on whim, was met with "I don't care, I need my fix". Did we get emotional after that. Sure we did. Did we berate or disown him, or even forced him to not go? Not at all. Love is not conditional on absence of inconsiderate behavior. As it stands, my chance of dying within a year at my age is around 1/300. Covid, if caught, about doubles it. No point in losing respect to those respected before over such numbers. We will all die anyway.

3. Our kids were always accurately immunised according to the recommended schedule. Did it ever come to mind that "freeloaders" must be forced to do so by mandates? Quite the opposite, my thinking was always - isn't it a wonderful side-effect of vaccination that people can act according to their conscience. These childhood vaccines are so good now that everyone refusing them must have very good (for them) reasons to do so. I have absolutely no interest in knowing the reasons of their choice, but I was always very pleased that we were able to contribute to their ability to make such choice. (Although my expectation to be afforded the right to define my own "validity", "eligibility", "vulnerability" and "essential" status turned out to be naive. But that's on the society conscience, not mine). No medical procedure, however beneficial on a population level, must be forced upon people. I'm fine with myself dying for this principle. Maybe not quite so for my loving ones, but there is no escape from the fact that everyone is mortal. I'll hold the fort for my kids until they are 14, but after that I cannot do much more - they will have to settle their own scores and live with their conscience. It is far better to live a short but free life than a looong but thoroughly mandated and controlled.

Re: Update on Omicron

#477

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's plausible, but it's not the whole picture. It may only partially explain some of the problem. We have, in the wealthy west, millions of vaccine-hesistant and vaccine-denialist people. I'm not just talking about poor or uneducated people, either. I personally know wealthy, educated, analytical people who have bought into the fearmongering and propaganda. I was shocked to find how deeply skeptical they were. I w…

>Watching the people around me has stirred in me many new questions. Have you ever considered they might have a point? More and more data is coming out, like https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.107... , in the highest-impact cardiology journal, showing that the mRNA vaccines are not particularly "safe" by any reasonable interpretation of the word.

This isn't a peer reviewed study, it's a submitted abstract. The sole name on the paper is someone who sells psudoscience plant-based debunked theories that the majority of our health issues come from lectins. He "authors papers" for Gwyneth Paltrow's weird publications. The guy sells supplements based on his scaremongering research to fringe-groups who like the idea of plant-based medicine, I don't trust his opinion or his bias with data in any non-peer reviewed studies. If there's something to this wait for a real research group to come out and say it - if there's a chance of world-changing science that will happen (would have already happened).

Re: Update on Omicron

#478

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

Sorry, a vaccine that still allows infection at a significant rate will continue to foster evolution. It may slow the process, but not change the result. There’s just no way the current vaccines stop this.

Re: Update on Omicron

#479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We got to zero polio. What's stopping it from happening here?

The lack of sterilizing immunity. You can not expect your immune system to mount a permanent immediate defense against coronaviruses. Once everybody has encountered SARS2 at least once, it may become as harmless as the other endemic coronaviruses. That is to say, not entirely harmless, but nothing to lose sleep over. It will never go away. How we deal with that is up to us.

People get sick with covid multiple times. Our immune systems are just naturally not good enough to deal with this virus.

Covid will stop being a concern only after safe and incredibly efficient antiviral drug is developed, which might take decades.

Re: Update on Omicron

#480

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the propaganda really that good? Or did they want to be skeptical to begin with?

I think it's not a function of quality, but of time and volume; if you hear something enough, you might–if only fleetingly–find yourself asking "what if they're right?", because it's not like it's just one crazy guy, it's a lot of voices.

>> …it’s a lot of voices.

A looooot of voices.

https://thevaultproject.org/ron-johnson-holds-expert-panel-o...

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