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Update on Omicron

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Re: Update on Omicron

#481

Post by scotty79 »

arbuge wrote: post #439
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

> When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’ll never get out of this. This isn't quite true. All epidemics come to an end eventually, vaccines or no vaccines. There were no vaccines to end the 1918 flu epidemic, but that one too died out just like all the ones before it i…

> All epidemics come to an end eventually, vaccines or no vaccines.

Yeah, but sometimes only after wiping half of all humans.

Re: Update on Omicron

#482

Post by artificialLimbs »

babyshake wrote: post #375
PostOnce wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's plausible, but it's not the whole picture. It may only partially explain some of the problem. We have, in the wealthy west, millions of vaccine-hesistant and vaccine-denialist people. I'm not just talking about poor or uneducated people, either. I personally know wealthy, educated, analytical people who have bought into the fearmongering and propaganda. I was shocked to find how deeply skeptical they were. I w…

I don't personally believe this, but I know some people who claim that Robert Malone who invented mRNA is saying that the mRNA vaccines are more likely to create worse mutations of the disease. It seems more intuitive that getting vaccinated is the best way to prevent mutations but I'm curious if there is a good response to people who do have these concerns about the mRNA vaccines.

Looks like no one answered your question here. Just tried to shoot your messenger. Was hoping for something more substantial.

Re: Update on Omicron

#483

Post by dkdk8283 »

nradov wrote: post #424
noahmasur wrote: post #421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think their point was that you need to have EVERYONE vaccinated in order to reduce spread and protect people for whom vaccines are ineffective.

I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, but the virus is so contagious that there will be no significant protection for those whom the vaccines are ineffective. https://www.businessinsider.com/delta-variant-made-herd-immu...

If this is true I hope the world can reach this conclusion quickly, and get on with our lives.

Re: Update on Omicron

#484

Post by 3np »

sharkweek wrote: post #175
belter wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. Prof Barry Schoub, mentions two times in the interview that its very early days.

It’s interesting compared to some of the initial COVID cases recorded in the US last year, specifically in a nursing home up here in the Seattle area where its death/hospitalization rate were quite high (iirc it was around 1 in 4 of that initial outbreak in the home ended up dying or something quite terrifying). I’m worried that the opposite might be true here, young and healthy catching it first so death rate is low…

> Tough balancing act for researchers, trying to prevent both panic and complacency.

It really shouldn't be. Researchers should do their best to publish their finding objectively without consideration for how that will change public opinion.

Researchers have a responsibility not to making people feel or behave a certain way but to further our collective knowledge.

Re: Update on Omicron

#485

Post by Aperocky »

mattrighetti wrote: post #159
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

The fact that this has been discovered in Africa doesn’t mean that it originated there in the first place. > Several scientists said they suspected that the variant had been spreading undetected in countries with lackluster sequencing efforts before it surfaced in Botswana and South Africa, giving it more time to scatter globally. Nevertheless, European nations did not find the variant until after South Africa alerte…

Given the large amount of mutation in this variant, theory point to high likelihood of this being evolved from a single individual with compromised immune system, likely a person in advanced stages of HIV infection.

Source: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/new-concernin...

Globally speaking, most of the HIV positives live in sub-saharan Africa, with South Africa having 17.30% of adults carrying HIV, and countries around it in similar ballpark. This points to the variant being evolved in South Africa or its neighbors

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_HIV/AIDS_...

Re: Update on Omicron

#486

Post by toofy »

babyshake wrote: post #375
PostOnce wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's plausible, but it's not the whole picture. It may only partially explain some of the problem. We have, in the wealthy west, millions of vaccine-hesistant and vaccine-denialist people. I'm not just talking about poor or uneducated people, either. I personally know wealthy, educated, analytical people who have bought into the fearmongering and propaganda. I was shocked to find how deeply skeptical they were. I w…

I don't personally believe this, but I know some people who claim that Robert Malone who invented mRNA is saying that the mRNA vaccines are more likely to create worse mutations of the disease. It seems more intuitive that getting vaccinated is the best way to prevent mutations but I'm curious if there is a good response to people who do have these concerns about the mRNA vaccines.

the fact that this guy claims he invented mRNA gives a strong clue to both his reliability and his reasoning ability.

Re: Update on Omicron

#487

Post by artificialLimbs »

raverbashing wrote: post #464
logicchains wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Watching the people around me has stirred in me many new questions. Have you ever considered they might have a point? More and more data is coming out, like https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.107... , in the highest-impact cardiology journal, showing that the mRNA vaccines are not particularly "safe" by any reasonable interpretation of the word.

And catching Covid is safe? Funny how you won't hear about the cardiac issues that Covid causes from the fringe crowd But I'll add one thing, it's not only ignorance, it's straight up spite and sadism from the anti-vax crowd Because they will take any BS and try to run it as far as they can with it. Including a 2001 paper like the one it was posted yesterday

Catching covid is definitely not safe if you’re in that tiny minority that is strongly affected, mostly because the NIH advice for the infected is currently ‘Wait until it gets bad enough to go to the hospital’.

Re: Update on Omicron

#488

Post by Lhiw »

elevaet wrote: post #133
flerovium wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not necessarily the case for a virus with such a long period of asymptomatic transmission. There is very little selective pressure for the virus to become less deadly; in fact, higher viron count is positively associated with both transmissibility and mortality.

Exactly. People overlook this fact constantly. There is no selection pressure for a virus like this to become more or less deadly. Just pressure to become more transmissible within our mixture of vaxxed, unvaxed, and some natural immunity.

I don't think this is true?

Were defending against severity with a vaccine that only partially works.

Increasing potency of the disease might be one thing being selected for by increased vaccination rates.

Re: Update on Omicron

#489

Post by tshaddox »

karlicoss wrote: post #453
tshaddox wrote: post #391

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only reason to want your immune system to be stronger is to not get sick, right? I certainly wouldn’t choose to get sick once a month in order to have a super mega strong immune system, for example. The desired end goal is to get sick less often! In certain cases it may be that getting a mild infection does help prevent later more serious infections, but AFAIK those cases are generally getting infected as an infa…

afaiu, in theory, immunity acquired through infection can be stronger than the one from vaccination. E.g. vaccination might prime your body for just one protein, whereas an infection would prime for several. But it's not universally true, varies for different viruses, and also isn't fully understood whether it's the case for covid. So far seems like a safer and less miserable opinion to get vaccinated rather than get…

That may be the case, but the immunity you got through infection also involved you getting sick once.

Re: Update on Omicron

#490

Post by Lhiw »

hackinthebochs wrote: post #282
flerovium wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Transmissibility is highest before symptoms appear. This the distinct characteristic of COVID-19 that separates it from most viruses and has enabled it to spread rapidly on a global scale.

I don't see how that negates my point. If the virus can mutate to have a longer transmissibility window, it implies that it will also be less deadly. The period when symptoms start is the period where your immune response is ramped up. Delaying or reducing the immune response implies longer transmission window and less severe illness.

It doesn't imply that at all. There could be a number of ways the virus delays early immune response while still creating more problems later at a different scale.
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