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Update on Omicron

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Re: Update on Omicron

#281

Post by somewhereoutth »

rich_sasha wrote: post #29
swader999 wrote: post #6

In general, respiratory viruses tend to get less severe over time. With this mass vaccination approach it may not turn out that way by some accounts I've read.

In the book “spillover”, notably written before Covid (so quite prophetic read from today’s perspective), the author discussed this claim. Although it often happens, it is by no means guaranteed (at least on satisfactory timelines), and there are counter examples. One is the evolution of myxomatosis in Australia, it is a disease affecting rabbits. The disease split into 4 strains. Eventually the dominant one become,…

I would go further, and say we have no evidence that any human virus has evolved to become less virulent as it becomes 'endemic'. Instead, susceptible individuals simply die off (e.g. smallpox in the Americas).

Re: Update on Omicron

#282

Post by hackinthebochs »

flerovium wrote: post #249
hackinthebochs wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Increasing the window of contagious spread is likely to be inversely correlated with deadliness.

Transmissibility is highest before symptoms appear. This the distinct characteristic of COVID-19 that separates it from most viruses and has enabled it to spread rapidly on a global scale.

I don't see how that negates my point. If the virus can mutate to have a longer transmissibility window, it implies that it will also be less deadly. The period when symptoms start is the period where your immune response is ramped up. Delaying or reducing the immune response implies longer transmission window and less severe illness.

Re: Update on Omicron

#283

Post by throwaway894345 »

xg15 wrote: post #178
Hermel wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the virus could ever be stopped with today's vaccines, even if everyone was vaccinated. Data from fully or almost fully vaccinated countries clearly show that this doesn't eliminate the virus. It of course helps, but we have to depart from the idea that the "zero covid" strategies work.

I mean, there are Zero Covid strategies that work, see China or New Zealand. The problem is just that those measures are so drastic that many countries would probably not accept them. The goal in western countries is to get to the "endemic phase" of the infection - i.e. "live with the virus". That's all well and good, unfortunately this requires the disease to become significantly less deadly than it still is. We're…

The first and most important step in the New Zealand strategy is “be an island”. You need a lot of draconianism to make up for land borders.

Re: Update on Omicron

#284

Post by grimdata »

xg15 wrote: post #255
grimdata wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which scientist was that? Medical doctors are not scientists. Remember, the WHO said closing borders wouldn't help, and how dead wrong they were.

> Which scientist was that? Did you actually read my link? Dr. Jeffrey Barrett listed the mutations in a figure below. [...] Of these, some mutations have properties to escape antibody protection (i.e. outsmart our vaccines and vaccine-induced immunity). There are several mutations association with increased transmissibility. There is a mutation associated with increased infectivity. This slide, from a presentation y…

Yes, I read your link. Yes, it has already spread.

Yes, Medical doctors are not scientists. Which class is medical school trains them in research? Uh, that would be none.

Re: Update on Omicron

#285

Post by yufeng66 »

The omicron variant could be a blessing in disguise if the early stories on how it is less deadly checks out. That means people refuse to get the vaccine shot will be infected with the omicron variant with relatively low consequence and get immunity that way. Btw this is how it suppose to work. The virus has no incentive to kill its host. The variant that is fast spreading and less deadly eventually wins out.

Re: Update on Omicron

#286

Post by DyslexicAtheist »

aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

would this be enough? isn't SARS-COV2, being a zoonotic virus forming strains and evolving in the massive available reservoir of animals? afaik MERS also spreads from contact to camels, H5N1 in birds etc. Is controlling mutations actually possible in a way that goes beyond merely managing the (inevitable) fallout?

Re: Update on Omicron

#287

Post by goodluckchuck »

aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

> we’ll never get out of this

Eradication has never been on the table. Listen to their words: Mitigation. Pandemic. Flatten the curve.

We’ve all known, the whole time, that there is no stopping coronaviruses. It would be like eradicating retroviruses, or bacteria. It’s too broad of a category, and too virulent. Viruses of this sort always have and always will be around.

We’ll only get past the fear of it getting worse when we identify and eliminate the original source.

Re: Update on Omicron

#288

Post by hh3k0 »

aisengard wrote: post #272
LasersGoPew wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current vaccines don't prevent infection, reinfection, or transmission -- which eliminates much of the selective pressure for lower mortality. We could end up with a situation where everyone alive on earth is vaccinated, carries the virus, receives regular boosters, and anyone who isn't or who misses a few boosters, faces certain death. Similar to Marek’s disease in chickens.

Nothing completely prevents infection, but vaccines are the best way to mitigate it.

> Under normal conditions, highly virulent strains of the virus are not selected. A highly virulent strain would kill the host before the virus would have an opportunity to transmit to other potential hosts and replicate. Thus, less virulent strains are selected. These strains are virulent enough to induce symptoms but not enough to kill the host, allowing further transmission. However, the leaky vaccine changes this evolutionary pressure and permits the evolution of highly virulent strains.[13] The vaccine's inability to prevent infection and transmission allows the spread of highly virulent strains among vaccinated chickens. The fitness of the more virulent strains is increased by the vaccine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marek%27s_disease#Prevention

Re: Update on Omicron

#289

Post by dnautics »

enlyth wrote: post #110
cole-k wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The answers address your question here: https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/52676/did-the-w...

This answer does not address the why, only the 'did it happen'. Like other commenters have said, Nu was skipped because it sounded too similar to "New", and Xi was skipped because of Xi Jinping. It's not a conspiracy, it's to avoid political controversy, before someone starts a flamewar on here.

it's not a conspiracy, but it is lamesauce that the WHO said "it's a common surname" when Mu is a more common surname than Xi. They should have just said "it's the surname of a world leader" for honesty and transparency. Instead, they just discredited themselves.

Re: Update on Omicron

#290

Post by christophilus »

azangru wrote: post #177
ellyagg wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease compared to infections with other variants, including Delta. I thought this was weirdly worded. It's also not clear whether Omicron disease is less severe, either, right? A long time ago, long before the pandemic politicized messaging so much, a researcher posted a comment here on HN where they said that virus deadliness and contagiousness…

> a researcher posted a comment here on HN where they said that virus deadliness and contagiousness were in tension. I've heard this statement a lot, and have been rather puzzled by why this must be the case. It's certainly true over a long period of time (a deadly pathogen that will kill off its hosts too quickly will also perish); and it's also certainly true that if a pathogen is very contagious but not deadly it…

There is no such mechanism, from what I’ve read (not an expert). Most diseases demonstrate the tension for the reason you give: too deadly too fast reduces transmission rate. But hypothetically, you could conceive of a disease with a high R value that is asymptomatic for the first month or two, and deadly in month three.
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