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Update on Omicron

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Re: Update on Omicron

#241

Post by DeusExMachina »

ant6n wrote: post #223
DeusExMachina wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no way to eradicate covid everywhere, simultaneously or otherwise. It's now widely accepted that the virus continues to circulate even in vaccinated people. Besides, you are not even going to vaccinate 100% of any western country, let alone all of them or the entire world. Milder mutation are what is actually going to make the virus endemic, like it happened to the Spanish flu. Reports from the South African…

There do exist viruses that have been virtually eradicated with vaccines, even if they weren't 100% effective (cf Polio). We probably won't eradicate Corona with the first gen vaccines, but that isn't the point anyway. The point ist that we should reduce it enough so that mutations are less likely.

Polio was a different kind of virus, though, with a different kind of vaccine. We never got a vaccine for other coronaviruses either, it's unlikely that we will get it for this.

Also, there is solid literature on the fact that vaccines during an epidemic cause stress that induces the virus to mutate. https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org

Re: Update on Omicron

#242

Post by hackinthebochs »

elevaet wrote: post #133
flerovium wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not necessarily the case for a virus with such a long period of asymptomatic transmission. There is very little selective pressure for the virus to become less deadly; in fact, higher viron count is positively associated with both transmissibility and mortality.

Exactly. People overlook this fact constantly. There is no selection pressure for a virus like this to become more or less deadly. Just pressure to become more transmissible within our mixture of vaxxed, unvaxed, and some natural immunity.

Increasing the window of contagious spread is likely to be inversely correlated with deadliness.

Re: Update on Omicron

#243

Post by semerda »

somewhereoutth wrote: post #132
adolph wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect this to be the case since decreased severity is associated with higher virus reproduction. The main question becomes second order effects.

Not true I'm afraid. Of course, if a virus killed you before you had a chance to pass it on then yes - but most viruses (including SARS-CoV-2) kill you slowly enough to have plenty of opportunity to propagate, there is no selection pressure to be less deadly. To my knowledge, we have no evidence that any human virus has evolved to become less virulent (please furnish examples if I'm wrong!). Unfortunately this common…

Replication-incompetent adenoviral vectors? Lex Fridman had a virologist on his podcast talking about the mutations done to the adenovirus to make it safe for the delivery of the s-protein (used in viral vector J&J + AstraZ vax). Maybe I misunderstood that?

Re: Update on Omicron

#244

Post by tgsovlerkhgsel »

gukov wrote: post #46
EugeneOZ wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just caught myself on the funny fact, that my level of trust for some stranger on HN is higher than the level of trust for WHO. They worked hard to ruin their reputation.

Yeah, not after this: https://twitter.com/who/status/1217043229427761152?s=21

Also not after this: https://text.npr.org/1016436749

They very confidently ruled out the lab leak theory (while admitting that they know basically nothing else about the origin, except that it couldn't have been a lab leak), then had to backtrack on that.

This makes me suspicious of their current claim (that they know that "Current vaccines remain effective against severe disease and death." while at the same time claiming to know basically nothing else).

Re: Update on Omicron

#245

Post by luxuryballs »

Hermel wrote: post #165
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

I don't think the virus could ever be stopped with today's vaccines, even if everyone was vaccinated. Data from fully or almost fully vaccinated countries clearly show that this doesn't eliminate the virus. It of course helps, but we have to depart from the idea that the "zero covid" strategies work.

Yeah it’s my understanding that you can’t make a very effective or lasting vaccine for a coronavirus. It’s my opinion that this mRNA vaccine is just a great way to make money and an excuse to bring about rapid social changes.

Re: Update on Omicron

#246

Post by brokenmachine »

pedalpete wrote: post #176
mattrighetti wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that this has been discovered in Africa doesn’t mean that it originated there in the first place. > Several scientists said they suspected that the variant had been spreading undetected in countries with lackluster sequencing efforts before it surfaced in Botswana and South Africa, giving it more time to scatter globally. Nevertheless, European nations did not find the variant until after South Africa alerte…

This is correct, but I don't believe it devalues the original comment any less. Any part of the world where vaccination rates are lower allows (I assume) any variant to grow in that region, and then makes it easier to export to other parts of the world.

I read somewhere that the new strains are probably created inside people whose immune system is not able to clear the virus, thus allowing it to mutate and create new strains.

I guess those people would be more likely to be exposed at all in countries with less vaccination though.

Re: Update on Omicron

#247

Post by gus_massa »

artificial wrote: post #202
djbusby wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We got to zero polio. What's stopping it from happening here?

Different type of disease for starters. No animal reservoirs either and the vaccine is effective with a single dose (and doesn’t require boosters). Perhaps we can focus on more health generally? Diet and exercise to curb the massive obesity in the western world.

The number and type of recommended polio vaccines depends, but the WHO recommends at least four doses: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio_vaccine#Schedule

Re: Update on Omicron

#248

Post by luxuryballs »

kubav wrote: post #226
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

Totally agree. I am 30 and already got 2 jabs. I will probably need to get 3rd in less than 6 months to be able to normally live (covid pass in Europe). Risk to person of my age is low even without vaccine. I got myself vaccinated only to help the society (and to get covid pass) but I do not feel that I am helping if they are wasting vaccines on people like me instead of sending them to people who actually need them.…

You’re not helping anyone else by getting vaccinated, it doesn’t prevent transmission. If anything it could make transmission more likely because if it makes symptoms less severe (the only thing it is suppose to do) then you might not realize you’re sick and should stay home.

Re: Update on Omicron

#249

Post by flerovium »

hackinthebochs wrote: post #242
elevaet wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. People overlook this fact constantly. There is no selection pressure for a virus like this to become more or less deadly. Just pressure to become more transmissible within our mixture of vaxxed, unvaxed, and some natural immunity.

Increasing the window of contagious spread is likely to be inversely correlated with deadliness.

Transmissibility is highest before symptoms appear.

This the distinct characteristic of COVID-19 that separates it from most viruses and has enabled it to spread rapidly on a global scale.

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