Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think the virus could ever be stopped with today's vaccines, even if everyone was vaccinated. Data from fully or almost fully vaccinated countries clearly show that this doesn't eliminate the virus. It of course helps, but we have to depart from the idea that the "zero covid" strategies work.
I mean, there are Zero Covid strategies that work, see China or New Zealand. The problem is just that those measures are so drastic that many countries would probably not accept them. The goal in western countries is to get to the "endemic phase" of the infection - i.e. "live with the virus". That's all well and good, unfortunately this requires the disease to become significantly less deadly than it still is. We're…
Update on Omicron
201–210 of 794 posts
Re: Update on Omicron
#202Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think the virus could ever be stopped with today's vaccines, even if everyone was vaccinated. Data from fully or almost fully vaccinated countries clearly show that this doesn't eliminate the virus. It of course helps, but we have to depart from the idea that the "zero covid" strategies work.
We got to zero polio. What's stopping it from happening here?
Re: Update on Omicron
#203Earlier quoted context omitted.
The Greek letter pronounced more like Kai. But, yes, the anglicized written form of the Greek letter looks like the anglicized written form of the Chinese leader’s name. And I agree, I’m sure it was skipped in the interest of not being antagonistic.
It's not really pronounced Kai, it's Xi. Ξύνω, Ξύστρα, Οξυγόνο, άνοιξε, ξένος, ξηρό, λέξη It's pronounced ξι, exactly. "ξ". Take it from a Greek ;)
Re: Update on Omicron
#204Re: Update on Omicron
#205Earlier quoted context omitted.
Very true; and even if Omicron turns out to be less dangerous than previous variants, it's a case of when, not if, a deadlier variant will emerge from a poorly-vaccinated population.
History shows that as a Virus mutates and evolves they tend towards more transmissibility but lower morality rate. There is a high chance Covid-19 will flow the same path. That’s not to say that a more deadly variant won’t appear it almost certainly will (or has already) but it is unlikely to become the dominant variant.
Re: Update on Omicron
#206The media blows these variants out of proportion. I've been doing research in computational epidemiology now for quite some time. Get concerned when we say there is a new strain. As for now, this new variant will be used for political purposes (look at us, we're doing something about it). This variant has been in the US for about two months, and it is easy to spot in the data in places like Colorado. Don't blame me,…
> This variant has been in the US for about two months, and it is easy to spot in the data in places like Colorado. What is your source for this? Is there anywhere we can read about it? edit: The New York Times seems to disagree: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/11/28/world/covid-omicron-... > Omicron has not yet surfaced in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Re: Update on Omicron
#207Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is correct, but I don't believe it devalues the original comment any less. Any part of the world where vaccination rates are lower allows (I assume) any variant to grow in that region, and then makes it easier to export to other parts of the world.
That seems to be disputed too, this is an interesting read: Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States.[0] > At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days > Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had…
Re: Update on Omicron
#208Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…
Besides, you are not even going to vaccinate 100% of any western country, let alone all of them or the entire world.
Milder mutation are what is actually going to make the virus endemic, like it happened to the Spanish flu. Reports from the South African government seem to suggest that this variant is mild, although it's early to say.
Re: Update on Omicron
#209Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is correct, but I don't believe it devalues the original comment any less. Any part of the world where vaccination rates are lower allows (I assume) any variant to grow in that region, and then makes it easier to export to other parts of the world.
That seems to be disputed too, this is an interesting read: Increases in COVID-19 are unrelated to levels of vaccination across 68 countries and 2947 counties in the United States.[0] > At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days > Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had…
Re: Update on Omicron
#210Earlier quoted context omitted.
And https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-59453842 where ‘[SA president] Cyril Ramaphosa said he was "deeply disappointed" by the action, which he described as unjustified, and called for the bans to be urgently lifted.’ Your country has a very low vaccination rate and you are ground zero for a new variant, but feel the need to be “deeply disappointed” that others trying to slow the spread slightly may impact your…
Ground Zero was Botswana[0]. South Africa is the country leading the research and monitoring because they have an exceptionally strong epidemiological community and facilities. (And, yes, a very low vaccination rate.) [0] https://www.dw.com/en/covid-what-we-know-about-the-omicron-v...
https://africatimes.com/2021/11/28/botswana-says-covid-varia...
So the ground zero is somewhere else, and we just don't know yet.