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It will take 100 days to tailor a vaccine to a new variant

thetimes.co.uk

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Re: It will take 100 days to tailor a vaccine to a new variant

#51

Post by sdoering »

GDC7 wrote: post #31
gruturo wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Honestly you are comparing a firecracker to a nuclear weapon, and if you want to do that, then you have to produce the proofs. The relatively few deaths from Covid are a testament to the effectiveness of the preventive measures and vaccines, not an indication that it is a firecracker. Hospitals would have absolutely been overrun (remember the "flatten the curve" slogans?) and people, unable to get treatment, would…

> We're at 5 million deaths worldwide and counting (you call that a firecracker??), it could have been a lot higher. How many months were trimmed off each COVID victim lives? In 99% of the cases it's between 12 and 48 months 1918 flu attacked the youth, it trimmed between 48 and 68 YEARS off their lives, as I said: firecracker vs. nuclear weapon

As far as I remember in Germany the average years lost were 13 years. I would love to know where you got your numbers.

From all your statements and bold claims I am actually missing reliable sources.

Fir example, where did you get the 99%? Or the 12 to 48 months.

And btw. what is the world view if someone dying 4 years prematurely (on average) is something that one can state as OK?

Re: It will take 100 days to tailor a vaccine to a new variant

#52

Post by thisiszilff »

GDC7 wrote: post #28
thisiszilff wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Honestly you are comparing a firecracker to a nuclear weapon, and if you want to do that, then you have to produce the proofs. Only if you've already decided COVID is a firecracker. Most people, especially early on, had no pandemic in their memories that occurred at the scale of COVID and were stuck figuring out exactly what their attitude should be towards it and how to interpret the government health intervention…

> The estimated percentage of the US population that died to the 1918 flu is 0.64% (using the estimate of 675k from the 1918 flu) vs 0.23% for COVID so far (eg 770k US deaths) 1) 675k in 1918? make it 1M, perhaps more. Also every COVID death is a COVID death, a flu death back then could be ascribed to anything. People say Nigeria and Brazil and India COVID figures aren't reliable, how is 1918 US stats reliable? 2) Bu…

The most important thing here is that we're still in the middle of the COVID pandemic and don't know quite a bit about it whereas the Spanish flu has ended. We don't, for example, know about the longterm effects of COVID and whether it reduces life expectancy of individuals, especially those that were hospitalized.

The COVID death rates do skew heavily towards those older, but the hospitalization rates are less skewed and if we are no longer able to provide healthcare for those who have severe cases, then the overall death rate will be less skewed. There have been multiple instances of healthcare facilities getting overwhelmed and much of public policy has been oriented around ensuring there is enough healthcare capacity to handle COVID cases + everyone else that needs to go to the hospital. The fact that there is a very real risk of not being able to receive emergency medical care because of this pandemic, especially during the surges prior to widespread vaccination, underscores that the pandemic response isn't just a product of anxiety.

Re: It will take 100 days to tailor a vaccine to a new variant

#53

Post by GDC7 »

thisiszilff wrote: post #52
GDC7 wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The estimated percentage of the US population that died to the 1918 flu is 0.64% (using the estimate of 675k from the 1918 flu) vs 0.23% for COVID so far (eg 770k US deaths) 1) 675k in 1918? make it 1M, perhaps more. Also every COVID death is a COVID death, a flu death back then could be ascribed to anything. People say Nigeria and Brazil and India COVID figures aren't reliable, how is 1918 US stats reliable? 2) Bu…

The most important thing here is that we're still in the middle of the COVID pandemic and don't know quite a bit about it whereas the Spanish flu has ended. We don't, for example, know about the longterm effects of COVID and whether it reduces life expectancy of individuals, especially those that were hospitalized. The COVID death rates do skew heavily towards those older, but the hospitalization rates are less skewe…

All those problems were present in 1957 flu epidemic, the 1968/69 epidemic the 1977/79 flu epidemic

People were just less anxious and depressed back then, especially according to recorded stats the most severe was the 68/69 it was basically the peak of huge human gathering, between marches, students protests, Woodstock, Summer of love, Beatlemania, surf culture. In short nobody gave a darn about the flu.

It seems to me, people nowadays are more concerned with existing that living, and somehow have convinced themselves to hold out long enough and they'd be able to reach immortality.

it's like they don't know that sooner or later they'd die anyway and that the secret is to live in the moment and enjoy life , stumbling on their way to the grave with a smile on their face due to the fun they had along the way.

Re: It will take 100 days to tailor a vaccine to a new variant

#54

Post by GDC7 »

sdoering wrote: post #51
GDC7 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We're at 5 million deaths worldwide and counting (you call that a firecracker??), it could have been a lot higher. How many months were trimmed off each COVID victim lives? In 99% of the cases it's between 12 and 48 months 1918 flu attacked the youth, it trimmed between 48 and 68 YEARS off their lives, as I said: firecracker vs. nuclear weapon

As far as I remember in Germany the average years lost were 13 years. I would love to know where you got your numbers. From all your statements and bold claims I am actually missing reliable sources. Fir example, where did you get the 99%? Or the 12 to 48 months. And btw. what is the world view if someone dying 4 years prematurely (on average) is something that one can state as OK?

> As far as I remember in Germany the average years lost were 13 years. I would love to know where you got your numbers.

That study claiming 13 years had a big asterisk: "those dying from COVID-19 may be an at-risk population whose remaining life expectancy is shorter than the average person’s remaining life expectancy. This methodological concern is likely to be valid, and consequently our estimate of the total YLL due to COVID-19 may be an overestimate"...DUH!!!

> And btw. what is the world view if someone dying 4 years prematurely (on average) is something that one can state as OK?

At this rate we are ALL going to lose 4 years of our lives with eternal lockdowns and travel restrictions and all this wheel which keeps spinning.

It's time to do what Sweden did, now we can roll out a new mRNA vaccine in 100 days if needed be, we have the Merck and the Pfizer pill.

It's time to go on with our lives , again , before we ALL lose 4 years, not just the immunocompromised and the overtly obese.

Besides, those categories who are handicapped are able to live a life with dignity because there is an infrastructure providing for them, that infrastructure has come to a halt, so they are losing those 12-48 months of life anyway .

Thing is, somebody who is 12-48 months away from the grave is susceptible to a ligth breeze, so if it's not COVID taking them it's the effect of lockdowns and the failure of the infrastructure.

Re: It will take 100 days to tailor a vaccine to a new variant

#55

Post by thisiszilff »

GDC7 wrote: post #53
thisiszilff wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most important thing here is that we're still in the middle of the COVID pandemic and don't know quite a bit about it whereas the Spanish flu has ended. We don't, for example, know about the longterm effects of COVID and whether it reduces life expectancy of individuals, especially those that were hospitalized. The COVID death rates do skew heavily towards those older, but the hospitalization rates are less skewe…

All those problems were present in 1957 flu epidemic, the 1968/69 epidemic the 1977/79 flu epidemic People were just less anxious and depressed back then, especially according to recorded stats the most severe was the 68/69 it was basically the peak of huge human gathering, between marches, students protests, Woodstock, Summer of love, Beatlemania, surf culture. In short nobody gave a darn about the flu. It seems to…

> All those problems were present in 1957 flu epidemic, the 1968/69 epidemic the 1977/79 flu epidemic

Those were all influenza A sub-types viruses which we've had experience with. The closest we've come to COVID is SARS/MERS both of which had significantly high case fatality rates (~10% for SARS, 33% for MERS), but neither of those resulted in a pandemic of the same scale. Even then, early COVID symptoms puzzled doctors and there is now mounting evidence that it isn't a pulmonary disease but a cardiovascular one so its long term effects aren't clear. At the start it wasn't even clear we'd develop a successful vaccine for COVID, whereas we've had plenty of experience with vaccines for influenza A subtypes.

> it's like they don't know that sooner or later they'd die anyway and that the secret is to live in the moment and enjoy life , stumbling on their way to the grave with a smile on their face due to the fun they had along the way.

Sure, some people need to let up a little and accept that the risk of death is inherent in life. But most people are and have been figuring out what level of risk is acceptable to them given a novel threat to them where the risk is uncertain.

Re: It will take 100 days to tailor a vaccine to a new variant

#56

Post by tamaharbor »

Giorgi wrote: post #32

It is already hard to make people vaccinate with 1 year vaccine, imagine how many will die refusing 100 day vaccine. Natural selection in progress.

Sounds like you should be happy with the covid purge of the fat, old, and infirm. That is natural selection also.

Re: It will take 100 days to tailor a vaccine to a new variant

#57

Post by proc0 »

hooper_ wrote: post #42
proc0 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's being suppressed by information outlets of all kinds. Authorities in the U.S. have admitted they need to "look into it", even though we're already in this about two years now. > You think eg. my local belgian government has a vested interest in butchering its own economy so some american drug company can make profits? Yes. Politicians are corrupt, welcome to the shitty nature of human beings. They will misbehave…

> This has already happened in Australia, with that one politician stepping down because she had received money from the pharma companies. As an Australian, I'd like to know more about this? If your referring to Gladys Berejiklian (Ex-Premier of NSW) stepping down, that had nothing to do with Big Pharma [1][2]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-gladysberejiklian-... [2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10…

Ok, I didn't know the details. Seems like a strange timing since she was doing all the pandemic press conferences. Anyway, they're still corrupt.

Re: It will take 100 days to tailor a vaccine to a new variant

#58

Post by keymon-o »

ajuc wrote: post #34
keymon-o wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I think people underestimate social awareness Not that I disagree with you, but I'd guess that social awareness is a product of having a trustful sources of information coming from trustworthy and capable leaders/government. It seems to me that handling of covid crisis is clearly correlated with how well people of a certain country do trust and respect their elected leaders. Edit: It all reminds me of an excercise f…

Team programming competitions are like that, and basically the strategy is to give everybody on the team 10 minutes to read all tasks and choose the one they are confident they can solve and then work in parallel. No time for coordination overhead. If you talk about everything you won't finish even one task. But COVID response is nothing like that - we've had months before it got to Europe and over a year at this poi…

My point was about how well can a society work when there is mutual trust between leadership and followers, not about solving a problem efficiently. Although I did go off the subject with the anecdote.

What is your take on handling the Covid crisis in Europe?

Re: It will take 100 days to tailor a vaccine to a new variant

#59

Post by sdoering »

GDC7 wrote: post #54
sdoering wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I remember in Germany the average years lost were 13 years. I would love to know where you got your numbers. From all your statements and bold claims I am actually missing reliable sources. Fir example, where did you get the 99%? Or the 12 to 48 months. And btw. what is the world view if someone dying 4 years prematurely (on average) is something that one can state as OK?

> As far as I remember in Germany the average years lost were 13 years. I would love to know where you got your numbers. That study claiming 13 years had a big asterisk: "those dying from COVID-19 may be an at-risk population whose remaining life expectancy is shorter than the average person’s remaining life expectancy. This methodological concern is likely to be valid, and consequently our estimate of the total YLL…

Interesting take. I have lost nothing for example. I gained a lot over the last 1.5 years.

I am vaccinated. I keep my distance. I do everything to protect those that need societies' help to do so (medical personnel, people that can't be vaccinated like people on chemo or pregnant women in the first trimester).

I additionally used the time not stuck in senseless commute to create a side business. Started to learn a new language and helped local businesses to grow their online presence.

Additionally as foster home we provided shelter for about 25 cats that now live in loving families.

I think it depends on how one views these times. For me it is a massive win.

Re: It will take 100 days to tailor a vaccine to a new variant

#60

Post by GDC7 »

sdoering wrote: post #59
GDC7 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As far as I remember in Germany the average years lost were 13 years. I would love to know where you got your numbers. That study claiming 13 years had a big asterisk: "those dying from COVID-19 may be an at-risk population whose remaining life expectancy is shorter than the average person’s remaining life expectancy. This methodological concern is likely to be valid, and consequently our estimate of the total YLL…

Interesting take. I have lost nothing for example. I gained a lot over the last 1.5 years. I am vaccinated. I keep my distance. I do everything to protect those that need societies' help to do so (medical personnel, people that can't be vaccinated like people on chemo or pregnant women in the first trimester). I additionally used the time not stuck in senseless commute to create a side business. Started to learn a ne…

Of course, if one thinks that work is the be all , end all to life then they'd find themselves rooting for endless lockdowns.

But there is more to life than work, people want to be able to go to a stadium, a club, to fly to Vegas or Macao to get shitfaced and play poker against the pros, they want to be able to go to resturants without having to wait half n hour for the vaccination check, want to be able to fly to Dubai or the Seychelles or Maldives or Aruba for the winter

Matter or fact the vast majority of people who consider themselves work-a-holic they are such because in their minds they know that they always have the option to unwind and do all the above things if needed be.

Remove that option and all of a sudden their mental health goes down drammatically

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