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Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

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Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#111

Post by jacquesm »

chiefalchemist wrote: post #109
jacquesm wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given a population of almost 8 billion and a six months head start you are now looking at a reservoir of many millions of people infected at any given time. Each of these will provide 1 to 100 billion new virions, and each of those is an opportunity for the virus to undergo a mutation, which RNA viruses are particularly receptive to because they lack the same level of error correction that DNA based viruses enjoy. Ed…

With that said, then a one sise fits all vacinne is highly unlikely, correct? That there will be variants and mutations that will out pace (so to speak) the protection a given jab is engineered to offer? Long to short, if death prevention is the objective then we need to shift to finding solution that are less specific but still effective. For example, anti virals.

The various vaccines have different ways of acting, some will be less specific but also less effective from the start, some will be more specific but run a higher chance of being outdated by future mutations, all of them can only be tested for efficacy against the known strains. So yes, this probably will remain.

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#113

Post by Animats »

Lionga wrote: post #94
Animats wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Testing of vaccines against this new variant is already starting.[1] First results in 2 weeks. Pfizer says that if they have to generate a new vaccine for this variant, it will take about 100 days.[2] That's the great thing about this mRNA vaccine technology - given the gene sequence of a virus, a vaccine can be designed. The original Moderna vaccine was designed in two days. [1] https://www.newsweek.com/omicron-vari…

100 days + XXX days for the new approval of the vaccine.

Yes. Although variations on the vaccine require less approval than a totally new one. This process takes place every year for flu vaccines.

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#114

Post by tastroder »

ska wrote: post #79
kranke155 wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realise this is mostly the case in the US? In the EU - previous infection and recovery gives you a COVID Pass - some countries are doing a single shot after infection at most to count you as vaccinated (Spain I believe does this) which is consistent with the data we have It’s mostly the US that has an insane vacine policy.

> In the EU - previous infection and recovery gives you a COVID Pass Is that consistent? I had heard it's based on antibody test - you get a limited time pass.

In Germany antibody tests aren't used for that determination. 6 months from PCR positive counts as "recovered" in the German scheme, afterwards you need a single mRNA shot on top to count as fully vaccinated.

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#115

Post by ChuckNorris89 »

chiefalchemist wrote: post #109
jacquesm wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given a population of almost 8 billion and a six months head start you are now looking at a reservoir of many millions of people infected at any given time. Each of these will provide 1 to 100 billion new virions, and each of those is an opportunity for the virus to undergo a mutation, which RNA viruses are particularly receptive to because they lack the same level of error correction that DNA based viruses enjoy. Ed…

With that said, then a one sise fits all vacinne is highly unlikely, correct? That there will be variants and mutations that will out pace (so to speak) the protection a given jab is engineered to offer? Long to short, if death prevention is the objective then we need to shift to finding solution that are less specific but still effective. For example, anti virals.

>That there will be variants and mutations that will out pace (so to speak) the protection a given jab is engineered to offer?

Flu vaccines are also updated on a yearly basis to reflect the strains currently in circultion, so why would the covid vaccines not do the same?

This sounds like an anti-viral subscription service. :)

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#116

Post by newsbinator »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #92
crate_barre wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also known as B.1.1.529 Variant21K appears to have arisen in November 2021, possibly in South Africa. Early sequences are predominantly from South Africa, though also detected in Botswana and Hong Kong. 21K is primarily of concern due to the large number of mutations it has in the Spike gene. Many of these variants are in the receptor binding domain and N-terminal domain, and thus may play key roles in ACE2 binding a…

>This literally reads like post apocalyptic fan fiction. I find it incredibly fascinating how fast this virus can mutate in order to throw curveballs around our natural and engineered defenses and become more efficient at killing us. How is this even possible in such a short amount of time? I thought evolution takes tens of thousands of years. It's not like viruses have giant brains with massive IQs to come up with a…

Evolution takes tens of thousands of tries, not years.

Sometimes far fewer tries than that, of course, but viruses certainly get a lot of iterations in any given population in any given month.

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#117

Post by y7 »

cblconfederate wrote: post #77
streamofdigits wrote: post #22

still some ways to reach omega (the larger sibling of omicron)

o micron literally means "small o" and o mega literally means "big o", but those computer scientists, when they use "big O notation" they write it with an O. Omega is sad :(

To be fair, big O and little o have different meanings in asymptotic notation, and I guess it doesn't pronounce as well as "big omicron" and "little omicron". (Although Ω and ω are both used as well.)

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#118

Post by School-Cotton »

hh3k0 wrote: post #83
acqbu wrote: post #62

Will people ever get over sensationalism and learn to live with it? It will continue to mutate and spread for years to come. Putting life on pause should've never been an option because of the toxic precedent it created.

> Will people ever get over sensationalism and learn to live it? You see, that's the crux of the matter: Not everyone can live with it. Literally. So far, it killed more than 5 million people globally. There is also the issue with possibly lasting brain damage (even occuring in cases that weren't severe enough for hospitalization) and life-wrecking long covid. Compassionate people have a problem ignoring all that.

Assuming you're going to live for 50 more years from today, wasting a year of your life is only worth it if it prevents a 2% chance of death.

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#119

Post by brazzy »

bedhead wrote: post #105
isodev wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine there was a fire near where you live, constantly spreading and endangering lives in your community. Would you say people can just "learn to live it"?

Can you point to a single policy that has demonstrated (in an intellectually honest way) ANY efficacy in slowing covid? One?? Vax passports, cloth masks, N95 masks, face shields, closing schools, cohorts, WFH, clean/dirty pen jars (my fave), plexiglass, 6 feet, travel bans... The grim reality is that there hasn't been a single policy that's been shown to have made any difference at all. NONE. There's literally nothin…

>The grim reality is that there hasn't been a single policy that's been shown to have made any difference at all. NONE.

BULLSHIT.

How delusional can you be? There is plenty of evidence that masks and contact reduction in various forms have a massive effect on how quickly the virus spreads. Infection numbers and their development over time varied wildly between countries, clearly correlated with such measures, long before vaccines were available.

Re: Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern

#120

Post by Kliment »

jacquesm wrote: post #101
ouid wrote: post #96

That's a lot more mutations than we would expect to see from a naturally emerging strain, yeah?

No. 10,000,000 times 50,000,000,000 (rough stab at # of virions per infection, range 1 to 100 B), is 500,000,000,000,000,000 opportunities for mutations so far. You can take it to the bank that the number of mutations is far, far higher than the number that makes it to the press because the strains that end up dominating have already undergone a lot of competitive pressure by the time we notice them, so there will be…

One thing to be aware of with RNA viruses - they mutate all the time and almost all mutations are nonviable (unable to infect cells or unable to replicate) and die off immediately. The fact there are so few variants (and there hasn't been a new dominant variant since October 2020 ) illustrates how fragile its mechanisms are.
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