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Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

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41–50 of 53 posts

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#42
post #17

Living in Germany I have to say that no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona. It is mostly anxiety and panic driven and short sighted and working against people not with the people. Corona brings live and death questions to the doors of normal people and also plays havoc with our political parties. It is embarrasing to observe to watch them for the most part. Seems for some of them the first probl…

As southern European and living here for about half of my lifetime, the whole management reminds me of the usual mess of Portuguese governments.

I actually never expected that somehow my home country would be able to manage better at decisions, instead of the yes/no/but-elections-are-coming that we had here.

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona. That is simply not true. The RKI (Germany's main institute for disease control and prevention) almost exactly predicted the current Covid numbers back in July [1]. The top left of the picture on page 7 shows the prediction under the assumption that 65% of Germans get vaccinated; currently 68% of Germans are vaccinated. [1]: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/I…

I fail to see how their prediction was "almost exactly correct." The prediction expected a bell curve peaking at the end of December, at around 400 7d incidence, assuming ~65% vaccinated. We are at then end of november, ~68% vaccinated, and the 7d incidence is already above 400, and still rising. We can only hope that they got the shape right, the timing slighly off and the peek not too off.

Where are our goalposts?

I personally think that for such a chaotic, human system, a prediction from six-months previous is pretty good if it's within a few weeks and probably less than an order of magnitude.

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#44
post #18

How can one model (or simulate) what one do not fully understood? Remember that simulation of covid from UK with all the pomp and bravado? Not even close to reality. By the way, all simulations have the same relationship to reality as cartoons. This is just philosophy 101.

> How can one model (or simulate) what one do not fully understood?

On the contrary. When you fully understand something, there's no longer a need for a model.

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#45
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for making public money sponsored code public. If you don't mind why was the software written in C++?

Maybe they did not have a useless idiot sitting around asking to rewrite shit in Rust.

Would you please stop breaking the site guidelines? We ban accounts that keep doing this, and you've been doing it repeatedly.

If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#46
post #8
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for making public money sponsored code public. If you don't mind why was the software written in C++?

The code was written in C++ because of performance considerations of the ODE solvers.

Does it mean you tried something like python or r and discovered that it was to slow?

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#47
post #2

Hello World! It appears the EpidemicsRunner software toolkit has been made open source. It was developed by a crossfunctional team of the German Goethe Center for Scientific Computation Universität and has apparently been used in real life settings as guidance tool. Images, description and source code can be found on https://github.com/devanshr/epidemics The EpidemicsRunner allows the user to run various algorithms u…

This is great. First visible commit is on Mar 12th. The front-end is HTML? Hope we start to see more gov apps being built as web apps hosted in the cloud. With WebAssembly, the C++ code should be usable directly.

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#48
post #4

[flagged]

Commies are really, really rare in Germany. I find it personally doubtful that so many are involved in that research area. Also try to assume that they are acting in good faith.

"Don't feed egregious comments by replying; flag them instead."

a.k.a. please don't feed the trolls

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#50
post #49

find_package(Threads), people...

What's the issue with that?

The CMakeLists.txt is very poor. Just use find_package(Threads REQUIRED) and do target_link_libraries(... Threads::Threads), and use target_compile_features or target properties to set the C++ version. Right now the CMakeLists.txt requires the user to set that, at which point you might be better off with a Makefile...
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