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Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

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Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#31

Post by swader999 »

antoinealb wrote: post #27
swader999 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taking something from someone else is wrong. Doing it for the good of others doesn't correct this theft. The degree that this happens in a society represents the level to which civilisation is broken and corrupted. Open source examples aren't communism, there's no threat of force. It relies on decentralized collaboration and natural willingness to create and share. There's a solid legal framework in place that promot…

So would you say all things funded through taxation are wrong ? Not trying to be snarky, just wondering if that's the logical conclusion to that axiom.

No. I would argue that less taxation would be needed if anti competition and regulatory structures were better enforced and supported.

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#32

Post by disabled »

hef19898 wrote: post #23
5tefan wrote: post #17

Living in Germany I have to say that no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona. It is mostly anxiety and panic driven and short sighted and working against people not with the people. Corona brings live and death questions to the doors of normal people and also plays havoc with our political parties. It is embarrasing to observe to watch them for the most part. Seems for some of them the first probl…

Also from Germany, I have to disagree. The models pretty much nailed the 4th wave down to a T. Missed it by one or two weeks. Based on the assumption nothing was dine against it. Nothing was done against it. The models are good, they are just not used to prepare or base decisions upon them.

Yeah, the models in this program are definitely the ones you want to use for figuring out things in this situation.

Ordinary Differential Equation model, Partial Differential Equation model, Finite Difference model, etc.

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#34

Post by birdayz »

swader999 wrote: post #19
4ggr0 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's wrong with commies?

Taking something from someone else is wrong. Doing it for the good of others doesn't correct this theft. The degree that this happens in a society represents the level to which civilisation is broken and corrupted. Open source examples aren't communism, there's no threat of force. It relies on decentralized collaboration and natural willingness to create and share. There's a solid legal framework in place that promot…

well that's one way to see it. however, in germany, we don't want to have homeless and extremely poor people, so we solve it by taking money away from the rich and middle class. for some people it might be called communism, for germans and in general europeans however that's just the baseline they expect from a functioning state.

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#35

Post by phtrivier »

LaputanMachine wrote: post #30
5tefan wrote: post #17

Living in Germany I have to say that no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona. It is mostly anxiety and panic driven and short sighted and working against people not with the people. Corona brings live and death questions to the doors of normal people and also plays havoc with our political parties. It is embarrasing to observe to watch them for the most part. Seems for some of them the first probl…

> no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona. That is simply not true. The RKI (Germany's main institute for disease control and prevention) almost exactly predicted the current Covid numbers back in July [1]. The top left of the picture on page 7 shows the prediction under the assumption that 65% of Germans get vaccinated; currently 68% of Germans are vaccinated. [1]: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/I…

I fail to see how their prediction was "almost exactly correct."

The prediction expected a bell curve peaking at the end of December, at around 400 7d incidence, assuming ~65% vaccinated.

We are at then end of november, ~68% vaccinated, and the 7d incidence is already above 400, and still rising.

We can only hope that they got the shape right, the timing slighly off and the peek not too off.

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#36

Post by sveme »

phtrivier wrote: post #35
LaputanMachine wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona. That is simply not true. The RKI (Germany's main institute for disease control and prevention) almost exactly predicted the current Covid numbers back in July [1]. The top left of the picture on page 7 shows the prediction under the assumption that 65% of Germans get vaccinated; currently 68% of Germans are vaccinated. [1]: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/I…

I fail to see how their prediction was "almost exactly correct." The prediction expected a bell curve peaking at the end of December, at around 400 7d incidence, assuming ~65% vaccinated. We are at then end of november, ~68% vaccinated, and the 7d incidence is already above 400, and still rising. We can only hope that they got the shape right, the timing slighly off and the peek not too off.

Probably depends on the input parameters. Lots of calls for freedom days and such as well as a general removal of measures probably changed the model conditions considerably.

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#37

Post by croes »

5tefan wrote: post #17

Living in Germany I have to say that no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona. It is mostly anxiety and panic driven and short sighted and working against people not with the people. Corona brings live and death questions to the doors of normal people and also plays havoc with our political parties. It is embarrasing to observe to watch them for the most part. Seems for some of them the first probl…

You are confusing what the politician said with the models. Even now parties like the FDP are blocking the possibility of lockdowns just for the sake of it and not based on any scientific model.

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#38

Post by dna_polymerase »

freemint wrote: post #6
jonaz3d wrote: post #2

Hello World! It appears the EpidemicsRunner software toolkit has been made open source. It was developed by a crossfunctional team of the German Goethe Center for Scientific Computation Universität and has apparently been used in real life settings as guidance tool. Images, description and source code can be found on https://github.com/devanshr/epidemics The EpidemicsRunner allows the user to run various algorithms u…

Thank you for making public money sponsored code public. If you don't mind why was the software written in C++?

Maybe they did not have a useless idiot sitting around asking to rewrite shit in Rust.

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#39

Post by jacquesm »

junon wrote: post #26
5tefan wrote: post #17

Living in Germany I have to say that no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona. It is mostly anxiety and panic driven and short sighted and working against people not with the people. Corona brings live and death questions to the doors of normal people and also plays havoc with our political parties. It is embarrasing to observe to watch them for the most part. Seems for some of them the first probl…

Let's be clear here. There was the scientific response, and the political response. They do not work well together. Science worked fine. Politics did not. This is not specific to Germany.

Same here in NL. Scientific data routinely gets ignored during policy making, either because the data did not originate here and we're supposedly somehow special or because it didn't fit the preferred outcome. The results are predictable.

Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software

#40

Post by [deleted] »

hef19898 wrote: post #23
5tefan wrote: post #17

Living in Germany I have to say that no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona. It is mostly anxiety and panic driven and short sighted and working against people not with the people. Corona brings live and death questions to the doors of normal people and also plays havoc with our political parties. It is embarrasing to observe to watch them for the most part. Seems for some of them the first probl…

Also from Germany, I have to disagree. The models pretty much nailed the 4th wave down to a T. Missed it by one or two weeks. Based on the assumption nothing was dine against it. Nothing was done against it. The models are good, they are just not used to prepare or base decisions upon them.

[deleted]
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