Can't be very good, or the government doesn't use it.
Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software
21–30 of 53 posts
Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software
#22How can one model (or simulate) what one do not fully understood? Remember that simulation of covid from UK with all the pomp and bravado? Not even close to reality. By the way, all simulations have the same relationship to reality as cartoons. This is just philosophy 101.
"The best and brightest built a state of the art forecasting model and it says I should do X" sells much better than "I assume this year will be exactly like last year and last year we should have done X".
Basing your decisions on complicated scientific methods inspires confidence in many people, even when there is no benefit.
It also mitigates responsibility for decision makers, because they can claim that they would have made the perfect decision if only the model's predictions would have been perfect as well.
Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software
#23Living in Germany I have to say that no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona. It is mostly anxiety and panic driven and short sighted and working against people not with the people. Corona brings live and death questions to the doors of normal people and also plays havoc with our political parties. It is embarrasing to observe to watch them for the most part. Seems for some of them the first probl…
Also from Germany, I have to disagree. The models pretty much nailed the 4th wave down to a T. Missed it by one or two weeks. Based on the assumption nothing was dine against it. Nothing was done against it. The models are good, they are just not used to prepare or base decisions upon them.
Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software
#24How can one model (or simulate) what one do not fully understood? Remember that simulation of covid from UK with all the pomp and bravado? Not even close to reality. By the way, all simulations have the same relationship to reality as cartoons. This is just philosophy 101.
IMHO “King of the Hill” is a pretty accurate representation of reality
Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software
#25Living in Germany I have to say that no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona. It is mostly anxiety and panic driven and short sighted and working against people not with the people. Corona brings live and death questions to the doors of normal people and also plays havoc with our political parties. It is embarrasing to observe to watch them for the most part. Seems for some of them the first probl…
Also from Germany, I have to disagree. The models pretty much nailed the 4th wave down to a T. Missed it by one or two weeks. Based on the assumption nothing was dine against it. Nothing was done against it. The models are good, they are just not used to prepare or base decisions upon them.
I agree with hef19898, here's a link to the prognosis of the Robert Koch Institute from July: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...
Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software
#26Living in Germany I have to say that no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona. It is mostly anxiety and panic driven and short sighted and working against people not with the people. Corona brings live and death questions to the doors of normal people and also plays havoc with our political parties. It is embarrasing to observe to watch them for the most part. Seems for some of them the first probl…
Let's be clear here. There was the scientific response, and the political response. They do not work well together.
Science worked fine. Politics did not. This is not specific to Germany.
Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
What's wrong with commies?
Taking something from someone else is wrong. Doing it for the good of others doesn't correct this theft. The degree that this happens in a society represents the level to which civilisation is broken and corrupted. Open source examples aren't communism, there's no threat of force. It relies on decentralized collaboration and natural willingness to create and share. There's a solid legal framework in place that promot…
So would you say all things funded through taxation are wrong ? Not trying to be snarky, just wondering if that's the logical conclusion to that axiom.
Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
Are they that rare? 5 percent of the vote goes to Die Linke, 1 in 20 isn't exactly non existent.
Die Linke is not a communist party. German communists are called DKP (15K votes in the last election) and MLPD (23K votes).
There are certainly many communists in Die Linke, even if they are a "big tent" left party.
Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software
#29find_package(Threads), people...
Re: Epidemics Plugin for the UG4 software
#30Living in Germany I have to say that no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona. It is mostly anxiety and panic driven and short sighted and working against people not with the people. Corona brings live and death questions to the doors of normal people and also plays havoc with our political parties. It is embarrasing to observe to watch them for the most part. Seems for some of them the first probl…
> no one predicted anything remotely correct regarding Corona.
That is simply not true. The RKI (Germany's main institute for disease control and prevention) almost exactly predicted the current Covid numbers back in July [1]. The top left of the picture on page 7 shows the prediction under the assumption that 65% of Germans get vaccinated; currently 68% of Germans are vaccinated.
[1]: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2021/Au...