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How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

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Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#271

Post by chrismcb »

zwieback wrote: post #20
curiousgal wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well then make it a law. No amount of reasoning will change these people's mind. The only anti-vax people I've seen get vaccinated are the ones who lost a close one, and even that does not always work, let alone some data viz.

yesterday I was in line to get my booster and I overheard an unvaccinated person get their first dose because their job offer was about to be rescinded. So, in addition to losing loved ones I think mandates do work. Putting it into law, like you suggest is harder, but giving companies green light for mandates is easier and does have some noticeable effect.

Telling people the truth and not forcing them to get vaccinated will have a larger effect.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#272

Post by throwaway332211 »

zwieback wrote: post #123
enchiridion wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does anyone have good stats to share on how vaccination impacts transmission? I’m curious.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... Once a vaccinated person has a breakthrough infection they spread similarly but of course the chance to contract it is lower and the time to "virus clearance" is faster.

Except that's not how Covid spreading actually works, and if you look at the relevant science it proves that vaccination status does not stop or slow the spread at all. It simply lowers the chances you'll experience symptoms, which renders any type of vaccine mandate as illogical and pointless. It actually shows that the vaccinated are the likely reason for the recent mass spreading...since while un-vaxxed are more likely to be in bed with symptoms away from other people while vaxxed are walking around town unknowingly spreading it to people at the grocery store.

Anyone that supports vaccine mandates that take away people's livelihoods while denying this science that PROVES otherwise is an absolutely terrible human being.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.12.21265796v...

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02243-1

https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/new-study-from-germany-co...

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.107...

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#273

Post by fulafel »

HMH wrote: post #70

Maximum death rate for all age groups with Moderna, which at least according to these plots provides the lowest death rate, is at 0.8/100_000 in August 2021 for all age groups. Maximum death rate for the unvaccinated of age 12-17 is at 0.17/100_000, for age 18-29 it is 0.76/100_000, also in August 2021. So even unvaccinated younger people (age < 30) are better off than the average vaccinated Joe. The thing is, so far…

> So even unvaccinated younger people (age Of course you can only say this only for a big 18-29 age group viewed as an aggregate (regarding mortality), but can't say that generally of members the group.

Eg according to https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-... the deaths in 25-29 age group are dramatically more common than among 18-24 year olds, and there are other individual traits that are big factors in death risk. So it's safe to say that lots of (But of course the most important thing is to reduce infections between people to keep riskier groups alive, so even without personal death risk it would be incredibly immoral to not get vaxed)

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#274

Post by throwaway332211 »

scythe wrote: post #118
johndevor wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you will find vaccines inhibit viral spread Is this true? Countries like Singapore and Israel are seeing huge spikes in cases despite having some of the highest vax rates. My suspicion is that vaccines have the downside of suppressing symptoms, thus making the vaxxed more likely to spread covid without knowing it.

See e.g.: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/how-vaccines-... Country-level anecdata is basically useless without a multi-factor analysis due to huge differences in restrictions and self-directed prevention by the public.

He's saying that data showing an entire vaccinated country that's spreading covid faster than anywhere else is useless because it doesn't align with his politically motivated opinion.

Another term for this is "cognitive dissonance", or "burying your head in the fucking sand".

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8481107/

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.31.21261387v...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.12.21265796v...

https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02243-1

https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/new-study-from-germany-co...

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/circ.144.suppl_1.107...

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#275

Post by InvertedRhodium »

nradov wrote: post #111
rob74 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that vaccination protects you from having a bad case of Covid, but it doesn't protect you from getting infected and infecting others. So, if the vaccinated carry on as if it's 2019, the disease will jump from one vaccinated person to the next until it finds an unvaccinated person.

I encourage everyone eligible to get vaccinated, but since the virus is now endemic everyone will eventually be exposed. You can't seriously expect people to tolerate restrictions indefinitely.

> You can't seriously expect people to tolerate restrictions indefinitely.

We tolerate all kinds of restrictions indefinitely - that's quite literally what laws are. Well, most laws that aren't based on age criteria.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#276

Post by mint2 »

bob_neumann wrote: post #200
mint2 wrote: post #61

This is fine but still overlooks sample bias. I.e older and more susceptible to illness people like 70 year olds are more likely to be vaxxed than 25 year olds. Had the vaccination rate been constant across ages, the unvaccinated death rate would be far higher and the vaccinated death rate far lower. It’s bad stats to not account for the population differences like that one.

No, the death rate in the ONS data from England is age adjusted. So among the same aged cohorts, the vaccinated are more likely to die than the unvaccinated. Almost twice as likely for the last 6 months straight.

So other people point out some things specifically about age so please read those,

is it also standardized for immune system status? Diabetes? Etc etc etc

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#277

Post by mint2 »

mint2 wrote: post #61

This is fine but still overlooks sample bias. I.e older and more susceptible to illness people like 70 year olds are more likely to be vaxxed than 25 year olds. Had the vaccination rate been constant across ages, the unvaccinated death rate would be far higher and the vaccinated death rate far lower. It’s bad stats to not account for the population differences like that one.

Wish I could edit my comment to add a statement that very sadly has been shown to have been needed. age is but one example out of many different conditions that would cause more frail people to self select. Stop replying to say one can zoom in and see age segments.

And please note that the main point of the article is an ELI5 of why absolute death numbers is misleading, but that eli5 doesn’t mention the sample bias which would be a good “next layer” to mention at least in the conclusion.

So yeah it’s all very fine that as so many people like to reply that a reader can dig around and find age groups assuming they already know about sample bias and thus are trying to control for those things. But oh wait one little problem. This article is explaining why one needs to look at rates not absolute numbers. If someone is aware of sample bias why would they need this article? Are you telling me people who need the first eli5 are going to know sample bias?!?!?

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#278

Post by Pyramus »

silent_cal wrote: post #243
Pyramus wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your link also provides the likely answer when you scroll down to the comments: > One reason not to draw too much of a conclusion is that 10 to 59 is a really, really broad age group, and the underlying death rate at the top of that group will be much higher than at the bottom. > If the vaccination is also unevenly distributed in that group (and you would imagine the vaccination rate to be much lower among 10 year-ol…

Then why did this trend only emerge in April? The population of young people being vaccinated has increased since then.

It seems to me you are really interested in an answer, so maybe you want to workout an answer yourself:

* When did vaccination start for the group 10-59 in the UK?

* How does the makeup of the group "unvaccinated" change over time?

* What is the average distance between the two lines, are there any trends?

Let me know if you have any questions.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#280

Post by Yoric »

hagbard_c wrote: post #258
mint2 wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s frustrating how people cherry pick data and don’t think about important findings in their own cited sources. I’ve seen similar comments to that one so many times citing viral load being the same and always ignoring that the duration is much shorter. Their own citations undermine their point…

It is even more frustrating to see the dogmatic approach to the fact that the vaccines are less effective than they were made out to be. The more this becomes clear, the harder it will be to keep up this narrative. I assume that you, just like most others here, wants to see these epidemics and the pandemic end as soon as possible with as little damage as possible? In that case it is adamant to be objective in the sea…

Let me see if I understand correctly your thesis (collated from several of your responses).

1. You believe/observe that the current generation of vaccines are useful.

2. You believe/observe that the current generation of vaccines are insufficient.

3. You believe/observe that many people (on HN?) have too much faith in vaccines as a silver bullet.

4. You believe/observe that the government responses (in western countries?) are authoritarian, hence politically dangerous. I imagine you mean lockdowns and the pressure towards vaccination. I am not sure whether you also mean other measures (mandatory masking, classroom shutdowns, remote work, closing down restaurants, etc.)

5. You believe/observe that the government responses (in western countries?) are inefficient or insufficient.

6. You conclude that that the government responses must change.

Is that correct?

I agree with you that it is an important conversation to have. Of course, I disagree with some of your points (in particular 4.), but that's life :)

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