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Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

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251–260 of 273 posts

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#251
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> alternative that will make them rich Given that HN doesn't make money, I doubt that any alternative would either.

It helps make money for its owners. It's not here for charity.

yes by primarily acting as an advertising platform for ycombinator companies /thought leaders involved there as well, although we do get other awesome content here and the community is awesome, so i can say that i don't mind paying that "fee" to be able to enjoy this site.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#252

I know nobody care but in 2022 I will lose my job because France will mandate vaccination at work.

This is a problem easy to avoid. Alternatively you could choose to lie in an hospital bed with a plastic tube raping you orally non-stop 24/7 for four entire months as somebody that I know, but I would humbly suggest you to take any necessary measure so this never, ever, happens to you (or to one of your beloved ones). Don't be another stupid victim.

[deleted]

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#254
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gold isn't a productive asset either, but people all around the world use gold as, essentially, a short against fiat currencies. Crypto could take over that role; I'm not sure that it will.

I prefer bitcoin over gold only because gold is not in my hands, and if it were, it's subject to theft.

The gold most people invest in isn’t on anyone’s hands either: most people buy gold ETFs or futures. You can totally buy those?

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#255
post #99

Sorta predictions, sorta hopes... GPT-4 or another huge language model like it will be released, and we will see diminishing returns continue to plateau. Graph-based approaches in NLP will continue to grow in significance, with KGs, ontologies, and semantic graphs seeing growing adoption for their interpretability. Model robustness in ML will probably remain a significant obstacle to productionization, holding back u…

> GPT-4 or another huge language model like it will be released, and we will see diminishing returns continue to plateau. It was my understanding that GPT-3 showed pretty well that the returns are not dimishing but rather surprisingly still scaling along with data rather nicely.

Figure 3.8 in the GPT-3 paper (SuperGLUE Performance) pretty clearly shows a plateau in performance, with the increase in performance from 13B to 175B parameters (13.5x params, +6 score) not being significantly different from the increase between 6.7B to 13B (1.9x params, +4 score).

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#256
post #187

- Companies that are buying up large swaths of real estate figure out that "money pit" is a real thing, and owning a thousand houses isn't a good way to make hard cash. They start merging with one another to stave off a crash. - A new social media company starts to gain traction. Because that's what happens every few years. - People start unloading their streaming subscriptions when they realize that for many people,…

My old landlord was a couple who owned 11 houses, 10 of which they rented out. Over the couple of years we lived there, we discovered they weren't even all that rich... but they sure will be. They own the house they live in, and rent out their other houses. It started with them renting out a house to help pay their mortgage, and then they found ways to accumulate mortgages for more homes. Clever but I suspect they we…

My landlord also owns 11 multi family buildings. He bought them in the early 2000s, in a rapidly gentrifying neighborhood on the Brooklyn waterfront, for 100-200k each. Each building is now worth 2-5million and he charges 2,800-4,000 per unit (in 6-8 unit buildings) for rent. He told me that he’ll never sell and will keep using leverage to buy up more buildings.

My grandmother’a brother bough 2 buildings in the same neighborhood in the early 90s for even less and had them fully paid off by 2000. Each one was making him 20k a month before he sold them for >3 million to developers who will come in and jack up rents by 50-100% on the old people that have been living there the past 15-20 years.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#257

I know nobody care but in 2022 I will lose my job because France will mandate vaccination at work.

This is a problem easy to avoid. Alternatively you could choose to lie in an hospital bed with a plastic tube raping you orally non-stop 24/7 for four entire months as somebody that I know, but I would humbly suggest you to take any necessary measure so this never, ever, happens to you (or to one of your beloved ones). Don't be another stupid victim.

What a frightening false dichotomy.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#258
- Malware crypto coin(s) will be created.

- James Webb telescope will miss its desired orbit.

- Brain drain in Australia.

- EU will not figure out its daylight savings issue.

- Fields medal will award another woman maybe Maryna Viazovska or Kaisa Matomäki

-An explicit example will be found (e.g. Merten's or Skewes's)

- World cup will be one of the biggest sport disasters.

- A heat dome near the Baltic Sea.

- Seeing Jim Morrison's work is in public domain (2022) for Canada & NZ. Causes the UK to pressure these two to switch to +70 policy before J. R. R. Tolkien works become public (2024).

-Covid causes more places to consider "die with dignity" policies.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I got COVID in January. 2 or 3 days in bed, I was at work the 7th day. Sorry for your friend. FWIW I know more people with adverse effects from the vaccine than of COVID, see my other response below.

> I know more people with adverse effects from the vaccine than of COVID, Unlikely, as we know that more than 5 millions of people suffered the annoying adverse effect of being killed by Covid, but if you have meet an equivalent number of people suffering a worse fate because the vaccines: 1) Congratulations, your social life is legendary and you must be the ultimate animal party. I'm really jealous. 2) Please write…

It is simply the truth, I'm not trying to win any argument here.

I don't know anybody that died of COVID, meanwhile a colleague of mine knows 6 persons that died of it. It's just random distribution I guess.

When I say KNOW, I mean someone that I have met at least once. Not someone that I have heard of.

I don't know anybody with long COVID either, nor even hospitalized for it. All the people I know that got COVID were very sick from 2 to 4 weeks then recovered on their own.

Among all these cases I was the least affected, I was sick less than a week and was able to get back to work (I'm not remote) after 7 days.

Here are the adverse effects I know from the vaccines, citing myself:

> I know one man with thrombosis and another one with Guillain Barré syndrome. My sister lost conscientiousness after the second shot. One of my cousin has extraordinary abundant periods. A colleague told me that his running times were much lower than before, he feels always tired since he got vaccinated.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#260
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think distrust in governments has already peaked, at least in Europe. The right conservatives have lost votes in the last elections. Also paradoxically Covid has proven conspiracy theorists wrong and further will since more anti-vaccination people will get seriously sick. On the other hand disillusionment in governments will be greater especially from the progressives because of Climate Change. The latter will prob…

> proven conspiracy theorists wrong the problem with conspiracies is that they don't require proof for their world-views!

Define conspiracy.
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