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Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#181

Post by lvass »

ksaj wrote: post #177
lvass wrote: post #133

The first major Assassination Politics[0] event, based on decentralized prediction markets. [0] https://cryptome.org/ap.htm

That's very interesting. That and dead pools never really had a practical way to operate. But now they do. Eventually it will happen, but I suspect that even before then, there will be some other added layer of plausible deniability come into existence. Incidentally, I'm not sure why you provided that particular link. It's not very fashionable to post links on HN without first checking if they even work. Cryptome has…

The link works and they're alive. I'm curious on why it doesn't work for you.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#182

Post by WaltPurvis »

ksaj wrote: post #171
webmaven wrote: post #116

People will make a big deal about a date that is all zeros and twos. Eg. 02/02/2022 or 02/20/2022 or some other variation. Other people will make fun of weird Murrican date ordering and propose some other date. Arguments will be had about which datetime(s) should be considered palindromic given the different orderings, or some such nonsense.

While silly, I think this absolutely will happen as you describe. It would be too hard for Twitter to resist. I don't even mean this pejoratively. 22/02/2022 will be a thing, and it will spark up the arguments in your prediction.

>22/02/2022 will be a thing

For once there's a bit of stupidity Americans won't be involved in...

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#183

Post by scroot »

Qem wrote: post #128

- Gross' proposal to remove the GIL from Python is accepted; - Speculative Inlining Smalltalk Architecture (Sista) for the Cog VM gets finished. Squeak and Pharo become much faster; - Existence of a massive 9th planet in the outer solar system is confirmed. Women go on demonstrations so the IAU gives it a female name. Name of African deity chosen, Yemọja, a major water spirit from the Yoruba religion; - China announc…

Love the shout out for Sista.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#184

Post by nickthemagicman »

reaperducer wrote: post #48
nickthemagicman wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the governments start locking down again Conservative states will see house prices rise.

I think that will happen even without the lockdowns. The states that tend to lock down seem to also have the highest housing prices. And with millions now free to work from wherever they like, they will seek out cheaper shores. When I moved, someone at my old office said, "How can you stand to live in a state represented by Senator X?" I told him, "When Senator X picks up my dry cleaning or valets my car, I'll care.…

>>Until then, Senator X has zero bearing on my everyday life

Where have you been the past two years?

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#185

Post by DrJones1098 »

mrfusion wrote: post #160
pjc50 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

.. and death rates rise.

Adjusted for age, Florida has done better than CA.

Yeah now that vaccines are being shown to have rapidly waning immunity and minimal resistance to new strains I wonder what the permanent lockdown states end game is.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#186

Post by nickthemagicman »

reaperducer wrote: post #173
jonathanlb wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, you know, you could be a woman needing to terminate a pregnancy and the laws in your state prevent you from doing that. Or you can't get legally married to your partner, and so on. What may seem to be manufactured to you can affect people unlike you in tangible ways.

Sounds like you've never been hungry. Or poor.

That's an oddly false dichotomy

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#187

Post by ksaj »

reaperducer wrote: post #41

- Companies that are buying up large swaths of real estate figure out that "money pit" is a real thing, and owning a thousand houses isn't a good way to make hard cash. They start merging with one another to stave off a crash. - A new social media company starts to gain traction. Because that's what happens every few years. - People start unloading their streaming subscriptions when they realize that for many people,…

My old landlord was a couple who owned 11 houses, 10 of which they rented out.

Over the couple of years we lived there, we discovered they weren't even all that rich... but they sure will be. They own the house they live in, and rent out their other houses. It started with them renting out a house to help pay their mortgage, and then they found ways to accumulate mortgages for more homes.

Clever but I suspect they were stressed out pretty big time, too. If any one of them failed, it would collapse in full domino style. But if it works (and it surely will), they retire fully owning 11 properties in their name, for whatever they might want to do with them.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#188

Post by errantmind »

tuatoru wrote: post #130
armchairhacker wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't see us ever locking down again. If we do lock down, it will be a half-assed "lock down", even more half-assed than before. Or it would be because of an especially bad variant, and even then it would have to be actually coordinated and enforced or there would be mass riots. I feel guilty saying it, but most people are tired of lockdowns and will refuse even if it's the moral choice. If we lock down in 2…

Yes, covid is endemic now. Everyone will just get on with life. Over time mask wearing will fade away. With luck the annual covid vaccination will be be free (and mandatory for many occupations) and it will be combined with an annual flu shot, and under-12s will get it also. (Super cynical remark: for a decade or more policy wonks have been agonising about the coming "tsunami" of healthcare needs as the Boomers age,…

In Texas, mask wearing was never much of a thing outside major cities. Even in major cities it appears to be below 50% indoors. No major issues with Covid at the moment [1].

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/overview-of-tmc-icu-...

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#189

Post by errantmind »

* The FED will do everything it can to avoid raising interest rates, while trying to convince everyone they might have to do it at some point

* Mandatory vaccination in the US will be struck down in the Supreme Court

* There will be increasing dissonance between people who think Covid is still a thing and people who stopped caring

* Gold will break $2000/oz

* Cryptocurrency will continue to appreciate in value. NFTs will also still be around.. both making a lot of people on HN lose their sanity.

* A second country will announce accepting BTC as legal tender, driving a breakout in price. Several people on HN will post in the comments about how all cryptocurrency is a scam and trad-fi is better

* Young people will continue to 'peace out' of the job market, viewing it as a game for suckers. Companies that can't raise wages will increasingly go out of business.

* College applications submitted will decrease substantially nationwide

* 'What happened in 1971?' will pop up even more on social media

* A hipster farming movement will gain nationwide attention

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