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Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#231

Post by binarynate »

- Apple will release its VR headset, significantly boosting the already growing interest in XR for entertainment and productivity. Combined with Meta's developments and marketing, the concept of the "metaverse" will enter average Americans' lexicon, but it will be overhyped relative to its current maturity level. However, this new hardware and increased interest and will spur real innovation and commerce, resulting in new applications and companies that will have a significant impact years in the future.

- AR headsets will still to be too expensive for consumers, but Microsoft's Hololens 2 will continue to see adoption for high-end industrial applications.

- Society will continue transitioning toward living with Covid as an endemic disease, and as the severity of outbreaks decrease, life will continue its slow approach back to normalcy.

- The S&P 500 will see modest gains with the tech sector doing particularly well.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#232

Post by bythckr »

uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

> - The "lie-flat" movement massively picks up.

This is a serious symptom that is being swept under the rug. Efforts needs to be put in to better understand the issue and enforce steps to resolve it.

I lack the basic training in trying to understand the issue - sociology, psychology or whatever is the relevant field. But I feel that "lie-flat" is just an acute variant of the general issue - "checking out of reality". The other versions are "staying in echo chambers" and being incapable of even listening to different views. "Getting lost in other worlds" - the gamers that spend whole day in games like Fortnite or always flipping through videos in tik tok.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#233

Post by chii »

bythckr wrote: post #232
uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

> - The "lie-flat" movement massively picks up. This is a serious symptom that is being swept under the rug. Efforts needs to be put in to better understand the issue and enforce steps to resolve it. I lack the basic training in trying to understand the issue - sociology, psychology or whatever is the relevant field. But I feel that "lie-flat" is just an acute variant of the general issue - "checking out of reality".…

The fact that they could still live while "checking out of reality" means that those who are 'lying flat' are being supported by someone who is not doing so.

It isn't a problem until there aren't enough people working, and too many people are 'lying flat', so much so that there's not enough food or necessities being produced and you get mass starvation.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#234

Post by nowherebeen »

bythckr wrote: post #232
uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

> - The "lie-flat" movement massively picks up. This is a serious symptom that is being swept under the rug. Efforts needs to be put in to better understand the issue and enforce steps to resolve it. I lack the basic training in trying to understand the issue - sociology, psychology or whatever is the relevant field. But I feel that "lie-flat" is just an acute variant of the general issue - "checking out of reality".…

> "checking out of reality".

The lie-flat movement came about in response to the 996. Workers realized they were being worked to death in factories for little pay and opportunities to climb up society's ladder dried up. The older generation sees it as laziness but if you look at it from their perspective, its a natural conclusion. The only people that benefits from being overworked, little pay, and few opportunities are the owners (i.e. the older generation and their offspring). Both the lie-flat and 996 are two extreme ends of the same spectrum.

I disagree that they are checking out of reality. I think they are looking at the reality of their economic situation and making a logical conclusion. They realized they could earn more per hour basis by working less and being more happy.

It is very much the same situation happening right now in the US. Blue collar workers realize they no longer want to work as waiters, and rather spend time leveling up and becoming white collar. You have all these restaurant owners calling these people lazy while ignoring the fact they hardly pay a living wage.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#235

Post by chii »

paulpauper wrote: post #127
hackingforfun wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic boom/bust cycle. It is unclear whether this will cause the Tether situation to blow up. Crypto and stocks seem to be correlated at this point. Both are considered risk on assets by institutional buyers. I don't anticipate crypto to crash unless stocks start to crash. If the Fed keeps inter…

we have the possibilities: 1 crypto crash, stocks rise 2 crypto rise, stocks rise 3 crypto crash, stocks fall 4 crypto rise, stocks fall I think #4 is least likely

> 4 crypto rise, stocks fall

this is describing a world geopolitical situation that would rival the cold war imho.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#236

Post by chii »

blablabla123 wrote: post #220
t0bia_s wrote: post #147

Trust of public in governments and media fall dawn rapidly, because people will get more angry and tired of constant restrictions, massive surveillance and rising prices of everything. Eventually civil war here and there. Tendencies of green pass and deals will fall, because people simple will not be rich that much to afford "care to nature", priorities will be more focused on survive (financially, mentally, physical…

I think distrust in governments has already peaked, at least in Europe. The right conservatives have lost votes in the last elections. Also paradoxically Covid has proven conspiracy theorists wrong and further will since more anti-vaccination people will get seriously sick. On the other hand disillusionment in governments will be greater especially from the progressives because of Climate Change. The latter will prob…

> proven conspiracy theorists wrong

the problem with conspiracies is that they don't require proof for their world-views!

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#237

Post by trcarney »

JasonCannon wrote: post #14
uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

>- Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. Due to this, GOP is probably going to retake the house largely because people won't realize that the inflation has little to do with Democrats policies but is entirely because of COVID fucking everything.

Last I checked, a virus doesn't effect the monetary system but shutting down the country for an extremely long "15 days" and then printing money to pay people who were "non-essential" and to keep the stock market up does. I guess it was COVID that created 40% of all US dollars in the last year. The GOP and Democrats are both to blame for this.

I digress, I don't like either party's policies because every law enacted is a little bit more of your freedom taken away and the crazy printing of money is just another tax on the American people. States and cities are making out like bandits with this inflation.

This is a pretty standard cycle in American politics. One party wins the presidency and the house, then the house flips in the midterm. The senate doesn't follows these trends because of how their terms work.

[Edit] I found the 40% number in a news article but it didn't have sources. You can view the M1 money supply chart here, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?id=M1SL. This chart shows why we are seeing higher levels of inflation.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#238

Post by trcarney »

l33tbro wrote: post #20

I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment. Remote work is here to stay. Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now). Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pand…

>I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment.

The inflation is not fake. It is being caused the but incredible amount of dollars that have been created in the last 2 years. There were $12 trillion added to the money supply in May 2020 alone, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL. Before May 2020 There were only $4.7 trillion in circulation in April 2020. This the text book case of inflation.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#239

Post by tata71 »

chii wrote: post #235
paulpauper wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

we have the possibilities: 1 crypto crash, stocks rise 2 crypto rise, stocks rise 3 crypto crash, stocks fall 4 crypto rise, stocks fall I think #4 is least likely

> 4 crypto rise, stocks fall this is describing a world geopolitical situation that would rival the cold war imho.

So like....DoD and every branch of government being pwnd during SolarWinds etc, top US military leadership citing incompetency while resigning, dog money having tens of billions of dollars of market cap......

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#240

Post by trcarney »

CyanLite4 wrote: post #26

2022 starts the Roaring 20s. Covid takes a backseat as new therapeutics become available. Remote work trend allows mass migration out of the Western states and into more rural areas. Prices and employment stabilize as the Fed tapers QE. TikTok launches new Metaverse product. Biden steps down to allow for Kamala to take over. Lebron James wins one final NBA championship and retires. Patriots return to win the Super Bo…

>Biden steps down to allow for Kamala to take over.

I second this. Although I wonder if it will be Biden stepping down or the 25th Amendment being enacted. I think Kamala takes over after the mid-term elections. Her current poll numbers would necessitate them waiting at least until then.

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